tell me you're kidding....

 

I think the Japanese are pretty darned serious about trucks. Will Ford/GM/DCX be able to field competitive products?......of course they will, THEY HAVE TO! But the Japanese will take their share of this all American market....absolutely, no doubt about it. It is impossible that they won't. Even if they only manage to get a paltry 10% or 20% of the truck market...that could be a"tipping point" for non-profitability from GM and Ford. I'm sure that over the next 5-10 years they'll capture much more than 20% though.....what then?

Remember all those silly little econo-cars from Asia in the early '70's? The big three were convinced that they'd never have a prayer of evolving into a threat.

They did.

 

They've been flying high for 15 years now - seems plenty long enough for someone to have knocked them off if image is all they had going for them.

First, BMW uses ZF transmissions for the most part. So much for needing to worry about economies of scale - ZF sells plenty of transmissions in each of the market segments.

Second, don't be so sure that NAO gets a price break from GM Powertrain. Maybe you've worked with a few sister companies during your time in the industry, and if you have, you probably learned that buying from inside the company is usually more expensive than going outside.

Setting the first aside due to its low numbers (which means it's probably not a big deal financially), that leaves electrical problems - not exactly a backbreaker nowadays.

BMW has pretty much mopped-up Audi and M-B recently in JD Powers surveys, and my memory seems to indicate that they're pretty solidly right around 6th or 7th place (by brand).

They've got massive quality problems, an outdated product line-up, and huge amounts of overlap between their different brands. You want to compare them to GM

If Hyundai goes anywhere, it'd probably be with DCX where there's already a 15-20% stake.

They can't make money selling inexpensive cars? Guess they haven't heard that yet in Europe. While they don't do well here with anything but luxury product, they do brisk business in the $20-30K range in Europe. Sure are a lot of M-B taxis and rental cars over there.

If GM acquires Dodge Truck, I think they'll have a hell of a hard time selling one additional vehicle. Go take a survey of your Chrysler-fan coworkers and see what they say.

...but Honda believes strongly in local sourcing and production, leaving them relatively immune to currency issues. If you want to talk about currency vulnerability, ask GM what happens when their Chinese parts explode in cost.

I just don't see that as a problem for most of the Japanese companies - there's simply not that much imported content from Japan anymore. Hell, even Hyundai's moving work and sourcing parts over here.

With regards to light trucks, two things:

1) There may not be such a thing as "too many trucks" right now, but it'd pretty frickin' foolish to think that's going to be the case forever. Sure seemed like minivans were the way to go just a few short years ago...

2) Toyota and Nissan will do fine in the truck market based just on their current customer base. And you want to know what I think could turn the half-ton market upside-down? Someone offering a decent diesel. If that "someone" happens to be a transplant, it could be disaster for the domestics.

Going back to the business side of this discussion, I find it hard to believe that companies like BMW and Honda (with their not-insignificant amounts of cash, diverse manufacturing locations, good brand identity, and high levels of production knowledge) somehow are more vulnerable than GM (with its estimated $30B in health-care and pension liabilities and declining market share). I am not trying to puff up BMW or Honda, nor am I trying to take a swing at GM. It's just the realist in me has a hard time believing the scenario you propose. I don't think this discussion will come to a conclusion for another 5-10 years

 

Just blowin the idea of a world big 3 oughtta water. What was that GM, Toyota, and VW? GM heydeys of 50% marketshare are over. Let's just be satisfied that they can compete and win in certain areas.

As for the trucks, you're hoping for a miracle.

 

Well I'm not hoping for a miracle per se, I'm just hoping GM and Ford learned their lesson. They didn't think Japan would be a threat in the passenger car market, sat idle and didn't improve their cars a lick and got passed by. If the attitude inside GM and Ford is the correct one, they won't have a problem staying ahead of the game.

 

Exactly. The new Ram is a hit. The new Ford is a hit. And the current GM truck is solid.

But let's not kid ourselves. Nissan and Toyota will have at least 25% of the full size truck market share before the end of this decade. It is going to happen. No matter how good the domestic trucks are that share will come directly out of the pockets of the big 3 domestics. And if one of them slips on a release of a competitive fullsize truck in the next 5-10 years, there goes virtually all their profit. Everything else is break even or in the red.

Either they learn how to make passenger cars again or they're going to have seriously shrink their operations. Corvette and Cadillac ain't nearly enough to save GM from loss of truck marketshare. They have to have a world class lineup from top to bottom.

 

I still maintain full-size truck buyers are among the most fiercly loyal people out there. Not that the Japanese couldn't win over some people...but I think it'd be an uphill battle for sure. Believe me every truck owner I know wouldn't really consider a Ford over a Chevy truck or Chevy over a Ford, let alone a foreign product. It will be an uphill battle. And like I said, if GM and Ford keep staying ahead of the game there's no reason for people to switch.

 

Yeah, I mean you have a brand new Ram and a brand new F150 and the Chevy is still a great product and there will be a new Silverado in 05' so it is not like the American trucks are outdated, over the hill vehicles, they are new and great products. Wasn't the Tundra supposed to be this truck that is going to steal the big 3's lunch in this segment and isn't it not doing that stellar? I thought I remembered hearing that the sales of the Tundra were pretty flat. I think when the new Silverado comes out, it will again be ahead of the masses and definatly the *** offerings. I think the biggest thing that turns people off from the Silverado is the interior. It is very functional and ergonomics are really good, but it doesn't have that "car" look to it that a lot of people are all about now. So if they get that right, they will be that much ahead because all the mechanicals are there.

 

Yeah it was....But now it's Titan. And it has some pretty interesting things that set it apart. The reconfigurable tie-down system is pretty smart. It's also the first production truck to come with a spray in bed lining. In the crew cab there seems to be plenty of room in back and the rear doors are suicide dorrs that open VERY wide. Locking rear diff is available. The standard engine has more power than F-150's most powerful optional engine (so says Nissan) Now styling wise . And it's 400lbs behind in towing capacity from the F-150.

The point is they don't have to win over die hard domestic fans. They just need a portion of the market. Titan needs to sell 100,000 to be successful and I wouldn't be surprised if it makes it. Domestic companies are too dependent on Trucks for their profit right now. They need to pump up their car profitability or their in for a hurt'n before too long.

 

Maybe I know the only one ...but my business partner won't even look at a Ford or Dodge, but will definitely consider a Nissan or Toyota next time around if they have a competitive product in the showroom. This time (January) it looks like his new truck will be an Avalanche (hold the cladding) thanks to Red Planet advising me how much better they ride than an extended cab pickup.