I def. agree that the import scene while still booming, is already losing ground. like some said, they all are starting to look alike. i already know of a couple of examples of people my age (around 20) in this area that just bought used cheap muscle cars instead of going after an import. one bought a 91 5.0L Mustang, one a 91 Camaro RS, and one a 95 Z28. why, "they look good as is and have lots of power and it was only 5000 dollars"
and being early 4th gens are only getting cheaper by the day, i can see many young people gobbling these up soon.
i think the import scene is far from dead, but once it starts to wane, i can see the trend going either back full force to muscle cars again (albeit with alot more late models present) or maybe with the popularity of the WRX, Evo, and SRT-4, maybe the next trend will shift more towards rally style vehicles. who knows, maybe in 5 years we'll see a "hooked up" peugot 206 going off the light against a "hooked up" WRX.

 

Something AW and turbo. Right now it's just 4cyldrs, but could move up to six. I just don't think the US is that bold yet.

 

trucks

 

I hate this tuner phase as much as anyone...problem is, I DON'T think its a phase. More and more, I have more acquaintences and friends turning to cars like Civics, Accords, Eclipses etc. for the myth that the car will run better, last longer, and have better resale value. Indeed, resale is better. But reliability? Everyone I know looks at a Cavalier or Sunfire and thinks its a pile...yet, no one says that about a Civic. Ever.

I think you will see more of the AWD/Turbo thing, along with the current tuner crowd. As they get older (and wiser ), they will probably turn to domestic muscle. But I believe it is short-sighted to say we've reached the peak...I think its here, and very possibly here to stay. I think it would be great if more people turned back to domestics...but I have so many friends who have parents ingrain in them domestics are crap, and it is worth it to spend more on a Honda/Subaru/Acura/whatever. I just lost a sale to one of my sister's 18 year old friends on a mint '98 Grand Am GT (only 8 grand...I was giving it away)...he paid $6,000 more for a 4 cylinder/5 speed Impreza RS! And it doesn't even have as much stuff. But to him, this car is "better."

Until the American auto industry can overcome its quality issues (perceived or real), people will STILL buy imports...in even higher #s.

 

The sad thing about that is there are many more people that would do the same thing he did, than take the Grand Am...

 

I have a couple of predictions:

1) No one will see it coming.

That said...

2) Something very uncool will become cool again (manual transmissions (god I hope so) or convertibles, etc.)

3) A new form or style of transportation will emerge as trendy (hybrids? Tiny Hatchbacks like the Minis?)

but still...

4) My guess is that the first company to make a small, low cost RWD performance coupe (SRT Razor?) that is priced $15-20K will clean house.

 

I think minivans. Why not? Blend the "import look" and there you have it. It will be like the van craze all over again. Cheap vans, cheap insurance. Plus, they have lots of room for systems.

If you think about it, the van culture never really went away. It evolved into trucks. Slammed minis and full size trucks. Painted interiors, etc. Check out an issue of Sport Truck or Truckin magazine. What we call "rice" looks very similiar to just about all the trucks in those magazines. IMO, the current import crowed mixed drag racing and van/truck culture into one. Maybe born out of the 5.0 Mustang craze? The concepts are the same, just mixed together.

 

While youth wont buy what the car companies say is cool, they will respond to what their current favorites are morphing into.

Fellas, import V8 cars (MKV Supra) are where it will be.

GM should be able to capitalize on this if they grow half a brain, but we'll soon see their understanding of the youth market.

 

I'll agree with you. It seems used Z28s are becoming very popular out here in So Cal with kids, and no wonder. For $5-8,000 you can get a car that has 6 speeds and as you said can likely whip anything else in the school parking lot (stock or not) with relative ease (and no expensive aftermarket parts... we are talking high-schoolers here).

Out in Clarkesville Tennesse, my son tells me Z28s are very hot with high schoolers (Imports are becomming too "me-too" according to him ) and if you go to any military base, it seems you are just as likely to see an F-body as a Mustang. My son even has a Camaro in his video game!

I think LS1 & LT1 f-bodies will become cult cars with youth within a year or so. Remember I said that.

 

WERM got it.

Anyone listening?

 

On the new-car side, I see rally racing driving things for a few years, much as Superbike racing has done for the motorcycle market over the last decade (and BTW, sportbikes have been "the thing" for quite some time now and are probably on the downside of their popularity curve, if anything). In terms of excitement, technology extensibility, and marketing appeal, I see rally racing being much like the factory drag racing scene from the sixties. What's currently holding it back is the lack of a major racing scene in the USA (yes, I know that there's the various SCCA and local series, but both are very much in the "underground").

I know a lot of folks around here refuse to accept this, but a high-perf 4-banger in a compact car is a rather practical vehicle for most younger buyers and a very easy vehicle to produce for the OEMs. An OEM can get into this market very inexpensively (every one of them already has some sort of compact model), and if the market tanks, they can just continue making the base model without figuring out how to close down a plant.

It's also possible that a very low-cost RWD sports coupe like the Solstice or Razor could be the next '64.5 Mustang, per WERM's comments.

If I had to pick a "from out of nowhere" trend, maybe the 4WD market would be it. I could see a backlash against the car-based mini-SUVs and a trend towards serious vehicles like the Wrangler Rubicon.

 

Mustangs and Camaros are extremely prevelent on Long Island. I don't see many souped up imports as I used to. They probably caught onto the fact that everyone that got an american car is beating them on the streets.. at least out East. I see at least 15 Camaro's a day, and many more mustangs. It is a very beautiful sight to come to a four way stop and see 2 or 3 black 4th gen Camaro/Firebirds in any direction.

 

1. I think the real true believers of the current import-tuner trend will migrate up to more expensive imports as they get older (Mitsu's Evo & Suby's WRX/STI are examples). The street race scene will give-way to camping and rally-racing out in mountains and/or desert where the are no cops and the kids could set-up make-shift rally-crossing tracks.

2. I think the cruiser kids who cant afford SUV's will buy older Luxury Sedans (cheaper insurance then SUV's) and add huge wheels and killers sound systems.

3. The kids who just want to go fast will discover that a $5,000-$10,000 Japanese speed bikes have faster 0-60 times then cars cost over a quarter of a million bucks.

4. Kids will figure out that they can buy an new Toyota Tacoma for around $12,000 and it has RWD and it lightweight. The only thing is that Toyota needs to get the aftermarket making performance stuff for these 4-bangers.

5. The real 4x4 kids will refuse to drive any poser SUV and/or truck their parents drive and will re-discover Jeep Wranglers and old Scouts. The more rugged and the more beat-up it is will be considered cool and authentic.

6. The Camaro will be re-discovered as the true bang-for-the-buck champion it has always been. The fact that the Camaro is no longer made will make it seem rare and exclusive and the kids will eat it up. Throw in the fact the nothing on the road looks like a 4th gen Camaro and it wont be confused with a Honda civic any time soon. Considering that polymer body panels on 4th gens will still make them look good and those buying them used wont have to shell out a small fortune in bodywork to make them look nice.

7.More kids will be getting their racing thrill playing racing games online and some will figure out a way to bet real money online and make a living in cyberspace. The next "Mario" Andretti might be related to one of Nintendo's "Mario" Brothers

 

The 93-97 camaro looks just like a GEO Storm from the front few. That is why I will never buy one, Only a 98+ for me f I get a 4th gen.

 

The Storm and the Camaro might had had a family resemblence but thats it. There are so few GEO Storms still left running on the road ( it was nothing more then a rebadged Isuzu) that people never draw the connection between the two.

If you dont like the front end design of the 93-97 Camaros thats OK, but to say you dont like lit because it looks likes a front end of a GEO Storm doesnt make sense.

I personally dont like the front-end of the 98-2002 models since I think it look too generic and rounded-off but different strokes for different folks.

As longs as its a Camaro its cool in my book