What we can expect as General Motors unravels
As much as I am happy that at least Ford pulled their head out of their nether region.................. in the nick of time.................. the new 2012 Ford Corvette just doesn't sound right.
Frankly, I don't think that Ford will be in the position to buy anything for a while. However, since you can get smoking deals in liquidation, it just might be too tempting.
Well, at least it would stay American.
Sigh................. I have had this bad feeling about GM for quite a while now. I have seen nothing to give me the inclination that they were even remotely aware of their situation. If this comes to pass, it will truly be a sad day. The "only" good that could come out of this, is that maybe............... just maybe................ they will finally be able to shake their do nothing, self serving BOD.............. and might actually be able to bring in a CEO with some cajones.
Frankly, I don't think that Ford will be in the position to buy anything for a while. However, since you can get smoking deals in liquidation, it just might be too tempting.
Well, at least it would stay American.
Sigh................. I have had this bad feeling about GM for quite a while now. I have seen nothing to give me the inclination that they were even remotely aware of their situation. If this comes to pass, it will truly be a sad day. The "only" good that could come out of this, is that maybe............... just maybe................ they will finally be able to shake their do nothing, self serving BOD.............. and might actually be able to bring in a CEO with some cajones.
I'm not so sure about the part where Opel and Holden can be spun off and remain independent. Both are far too small to be able to capitalize vehicle programs on their own. Fiat (which sells about 2 million cars per year) has said it's not sure it can last much longer without a partner because of this, and even Honda (3.5 million cars per year) is getting a bit anxious about being independent. So Opel (< 1.5 million cars) and Holden/Daewoo (don't have the numbers handy, but it's around 1 million) would be even worse off. They would both need a partner to add to their volumes and provide global reach.
I'm not so sure about the part where Opel and Holden can be spun off and remain independent. Both are far too small to be able to capitalize vehicle programs on their own. Fiat (which sells about 2 million cars per year) has said it's not sure it can last much longer without a partner because of this, and even Honda (3.5 million cars per year) is getting a bit anxious about being independent. So Opel (< 1.5 million cars) and Holden/Daewoo (don't have the numbers handy, but it's around 1 million) would be even worse off. They would both need a partner to add to their volumes and provide global reach.
I agree completely.
I don't know where Opel thinks it's going - but up until now it's been a money drain on GM. Also, if spun off completely, it will have to license all of it technology from GM, (perhaps GM can finally turn a profit from a new "free" Opel doing that). That or engineer all new architectures, powertrains, etc. Good luck with that, since I believe the engineering centers would still belong to GM.
Beyond all of that, as you say, Opel can't survive on it's own. It simply doesn't have the size and scope and is in an INCREDIBLY competitive and ruthless market. I see it becoming a ward of the German State, since I can't imagine who'd want to buy it and support it now. In a way, Opel and the Germans are doing GM a favor.
Although I like the variety of different brands, GM has no choice but to keep only those with the potential to make a profit. Right now, that would be Chevy, Buick and GMC. Even Cadillac needs some work to get to that point, but at least it still has the potential to be a premium brand.
Last edited by Z284ever; Feb 28, 2009 at 01:01 PM.
Make no mistake Ford isn't getting involved in any of this. Yes they have more cash right now but unless the economy turns around in the next 12 months they will be very close to where GM was 3-4 months ago, taking a loan. With total NA Vehicle sales below the 11 million unit annual level means they too won't be looking at any profits for some time. That scenario still leads to cash burn.
So no Ford badged Chevy models or anything remotely close to that.
Ford has gotten where they are today by getting back to basics by focusing on their core brands and getting lean. The last thing they could or even would want to do is add some of GM's mess to their own. Ford’s cash can’t support even part of GM’s problems.
GM may look weak and ready to be broke up by corporate raiders but like a blowfish they carry some huge liability and massive debt to be paid by any suitor. UAW, healthcare and pension obligations are still on the books. While several car companies could technically afford to "buy" GM they would sink in the very deep pool of red ink that likes behind the market cap value.
So no Ford badged Chevy models or anything remotely close to that.
Ford has gotten where they are today by getting back to basics by focusing on their core brands and getting lean. The last thing they could or even would want to do is add some of GM's mess to their own. Ford’s cash can’t support even part of GM’s problems.
GM may look weak and ready to be broke up by corporate raiders but like a blowfish they carry some huge liability and massive debt to be paid by any suitor. UAW, healthcare and pension obligations are still on the books. While several car companies could technically afford to "buy" GM they would sink in the very deep pool of red ink that likes behind the market cap value.
Sigh................. I have had this bad feeling about GM for quite a while now. I have seen nothing to give me the inclination that they were even remotely aware of their situation. If this comes to pass, it will truly be a sad day. The "only" good that could come out of this, is that maybe............... just maybe................ they will finally be able to shake their do nothing, self serving BOD.............. and might actually be able to bring in a CEO with some cajones.
truthfully I was thinking GN NA should go down to..GMC,Caddy,Pontiac and Chevy. Now why Pontiac and not Buick or Saturn? With both Buick and Saturn gone. Pontiac could pick the best from both groups and sell cars that Chevy does not have. Along with the G8..
and rename them Grand Prix and Grand Am.
The real wild card here is the Obama administration. My hope was that he would move towards the center after being elected since most American's are there. However the fact that despite a $1 Trillion plus deficit, his budget topped it off with $600 Billion to fund a health care program that does not yet exist is evidence there will be no center.
That kills my original hope was that there would be a chance that maybe Obama's administration would realize GM is a business that needs to be competitive on a global level. I was hoping some of the fuel economy rhetoric from the campaign would fall by the wayside untill GM could first be stablized and made competitive.
This is now obviously not gonna happen. The bailout as we see it today is nothing but GM and Chrysler being turned into a pawns in the big green drive.
That kills my original hope was that there would be a chance that maybe Obama's administration would realize GM is a business that needs to be competitive on a global level. I was hoping some of the fuel economy rhetoric from the campaign would fall by the wayside untill GM could first be stablized and made competitive.
This is now obviously not gonna happen. The bailout as we see it today is nothing but GM and Chrysler being turned into a pawns in the big green drive.
+ The "green drive" increases political support for the American auto industry by aligning it with other interests, in particular national security. Maybe it wasn't obvious, but General Motors has very few friends on capital hill. They've made enemies in both the greeny quarters and among the politicians from the pickup states.
+ As the government is now invested in the auto industry, they will be forced to become more realistic about the financial implications of regulations. Meaningless tree-hugger rhetoric like "50MPG" goes out the window once the government becomes responsible for the implementation cost.
Make no mistakes about it...a GM bailed out with restrictions on what product it can make will be one that is not structurally competitive.
Also, this isn't directed at you in particular, but a lot of people on this board confuse the ability to build a couple thousand ZR1s or CTS-Vs or Z/28s with GM being a healthy company.
I don't think it will be anything near that rosy.
Buick will be sold to the Chinese. Pontiac has no value any longer. If we end up with Chevy and Cadillac............. the former GM will be very lucky. Frankly, about the only thing that the company formerly named GM, may be able to salvage, is the actual Chevrolet brand.
Even that will take some luck.
It would not surprise me, if I woke up Monday morning, to find that GM has filed Chapter 11. When it happens, it will be quick, and will be right after they have given assurances that no such thing will happen.
The longer they drag this all out, the less that will survive in any form. There simply won't be enough left to salvage.
Buick will be sold to the Chinese. Pontiac has no value any longer. If we end up with Chevy and Cadillac............. the former GM will be very lucky. Frankly, about the only thing that the company formerly named GM, may be able to salvage, is the actual Chevrolet brand.
Even that will take some luck.
It would not surprise me, if I woke up Monday morning, to find that GM has filed Chapter 11. When it happens, it will be quick, and will be right after they have given assurances that no such thing will happen.
The longer they drag this all out, the less that will survive in any form. There simply won't be enough left to salvage.
You know better than that. Product decisions made today will take 4+ years to see light of day. The fact is..the government has not given GM the money it needs to fix the problem....it has only given it a stay of execution. Any money the government gives to fix GM long term will come with product restrictions that will make them uncompetitive.
I don't think ANY amount of money could save GM.
The government could pay off all of GM's debt and pad their operating expense account and GM would still lose money.
Losing money at GM is built into their structure. The bureauocracy, the top-heavy-ness, the board, the execs, their non-existant decision making process, their non-ability to react fast enough, their non-ability to SET trends instead of follow them. All of it.
How come nobody seems to want to talk about GM's salaried employee structure?
GM would have to be taken apart brick by brick, all the bad stuff jettisoned, and then rebuilt from the basement up. I'm not sure there is enough time for that.
I'll bet that the execs & board have no idea how bad it is. It's like peeling an onion with them. You just keep coming across one stinky layer after another.
I'm afraid it just doesn't bode well for them.
The government could pay off all of GM's debt and pad their operating expense account and GM would still lose money.
Losing money at GM is built into their structure. The bureauocracy, the top-heavy-ness, the board, the execs, their non-existant decision making process, their non-ability to react fast enough, their non-ability to SET trends instead of follow them. All of it.
How come nobody seems to want to talk about GM's salaried employee structure?
GM would have to be taken apart brick by brick, all the bad stuff jettisoned, and then rebuilt from the basement up. I'm not sure there is enough time for that.
I'll bet that the execs & board have no idea how bad it is. It's like peeling an onion with them. You just keep coming across one stinky layer after another.
I'm afraid it just doesn't bode well for them.
I don't think ANY amount of money could save GM.
The government could pay off all of GM's debt and pad their operating expense account and GM would still lose money.
Losing money at GM is built into their structure. The bureauocracy, the top-heavy-ness, the board, the execs, their non-existant decision making process, their non-ability to react fast enough, their non-ability to SET trends instead of follow them. All of it.
How come nobody seems to want to talk about GM's salaried employee structure?
GM would have to be taken apart brick by brick, all the bad stuff jettisoned, and then rebuilt from the basement up. I'm not sure there is enough time for that.
I'll bet that the execs & board have no idea how bad it is. It's like peeling an onion with them. You just keep coming across one stinky layer after another.
I'm afraid it just doesn't bode well for them.
The government could pay off all of GM's debt and pad their operating expense account and GM would still lose money.
Losing money at GM is built into their structure. The bureauocracy, the top-heavy-ness, the board, the execs, their non-existant decision making process, their non-ability to react fast enough, their non-ability to SET trends instead of follow them. All of it.
How come nobody seems to want to talk about GM's salaried employee structure?
GM would have to be taken apart brick by brick, all the bad stuff jettisoned, and then rebuilt from the basement up. I'm not sure there is enough time for that.
I'll bet that the execs & board have no idea how bad it is. It's like peeling an onion with them. You just keep coming across one stinky layer after another.
I'm afraid it just doesn't bode well for them.
And as for the original theme, it's wildly premature to be writing GM's epitaph. GM has a few hurdles to clear - UAW, debt/bondholders, and the dealers. They will find a solution with help from the Government. Then life (and a streamlined GM) will go on. Stop already, with the "sky is falling" hysteria
BDF,
The thing is man. I see it in the publics reaction. I have the chance every day to meet new people and talk to them at my job. And combine that personal talk with what I see online, polls, and TV.
The American people want GM to fail. they think Ford is part of the "bailout"
and the end result is..if the country is not behind this. Our idiots in goverment will be too. They will BK GM as fast as Sen Shelby can say Toyota!
GM has no hope and the reason is the american people want GM to fail..and that is bad.
The thing is man. I see it in the publics reaction. I have the chance every day to meet new people and talk to them at my job. And combine that personal talk with what I see online, polls, and TV.
The American people want GM to fail. they think Ford is part of the "bailout"
and the end result is..if the country is not behind this. Our idiots in goverment will be too. They will BK GM as fast as Sen Shelby can say Toyota!
GM has no hope and the reason is the american people want GM to fail..and that is bad.
Last edited by Caps94ZODG; Mar 1, 2009 at 09:36 AM.



