2 things to consider.

First, Bob Lutz said this about a year ago... early last summer I believe. At that time, GM didn't (amazingly) forsee they would be out of money (and potentially out of business) by year's end.

Secondly, GM's plans have gone through a complete change, not just over the past year, but over the past month.


Here's a few things that will come out soon.

General Motors North American large car program is DEAD! General Motors is no longer spending any money on any passenger car vehicle larger than the Malibu. The large Espilon Impala, the large Espilon Cadillac, and [i]maybe[i] even the large Espilon Lucerne. All of them... dead!

The reason? There doesn't seem (at the moment) to be a future long enough to warrant investment in a vehicle line that might only have a lifespan of 4 years or so.

Here's the catch.

All of GM's large cars are pretty much at the end of their lives. GM has very, very little money to spend on development. Alpha is quickly becoming GM's version of the Chrysler K-car, a vehicle that will form the basis of a wide range of profit making vehicles. The Automobile Task Force is also (rightfully) wondering why GM is spending money on new big cars that may have a limited lifespan when they already have top notch large cars ready-made in their global portfolio that is already certified for sale in the US and can fill the bill.

So while the Impala replacement is likely to be a G8 that looks like the Chevrolet Lumina sold in the Middle East, the very same Statesman based Zeta car that was to be imported that Buick dealers killed, will also most likely wind up here soon as either the DTS replacement or the Lucerne replacement.

As for the cars being sold here in the US profitably, every since the Australian dollar plunged last year (incidently, after Bob Lutz said there would be no more Zeta vehicles imported for sale in the US) the G8s which supposedly had to be sold for $32K retail to meet profit targets could be (and were) sold for as little a good Impala SS... despite having far more complex (and expensive) parts. The G8s are now pretty heavy duty profit-per-vehicle makers.

Since Rick Wagoner was forced out as a condition of the Feds giving GM additional money, the upper management staff at General Motors has been... should we say.... considerably more focused on running a competitive car company.

Although circumstances can change every well laid plan, and GM's new plans using Holden to save them money replacing their large cars and new emphasis on Alpha are venerable to unforseen events (ie: a bankruptcy that spirals out of control, or the economy being pulled into a global depression), I'd put about as much stock in this as you would in any news from the car industry.... as current "plans" until the ink is dry on the contracts to actually make the things.



Gotta go soon, but I gotta answer ya on this.


First, Crown Victoria wil be gone within 10-12 months... if that long. Regardless as to the "size" preference of the particular agency that rejected the Charger based on "size", they are going to have to go with Dodge Charger size vehicles with their next purchase.


Second, Not sure what you mean by "most" law enforcement agencies.

"Most" Law enforcement agencies are warming up to buying and using Dodge Chargers now that the main objection is quickly disappearing.... the availability of modestly priced accessories.

With the Ford Crown Victoria, you could buy entire prewired systems and electronics specifically made for Crown Victorias. Just like the aftermarket in the civilian performance car side, the availability of cheap quality parts drives the incentive to buy one. Same goes for LE agencies that are on a tight budget and often have to go with bids.

New York City Police Department is already moving to Chargers. Many cities here in California (East Palo Alto being the one I'm closest to) has just about replaced their CV line with Chargers. The Seaside Police department want them (but CVs had a lower bid). CHP is highly intrested in buying them if they ever get a budget for replacing cars again. Arizona and Neveda are going for them if they don't already have a few. Once Florida and Texas are on board, you may as well move the rest of the country into that column.


The bottom line is that regardless as to what cops "love" (the Charger seems to be the favorite "wish" car here in Cali), the bottom line is what's available and what the taxpayers will pay for and what the governing body will budget.

The current Impala has the performance and the price, but maintence costs regarding the FWD setup makes them more expensive to maintain than Crown Vics (New York and LA cite major damage to front suspension and driveline components in situations that might result in a destroyed rim or a bent suspension component in a CV or Charger).

GM, correctly sees an opening in utilizing the Commodore for LE that the CV is going to leave. Being that the Vic accounts for something like 85% of all new Law Enforcement vehicle sales in the United States, you can see where (and why) General Motors might be a little excited about this.

That's going to be roughly a 80,000 vehicle crater opening up. GM only planned on selling 35,000 G8s annually.

If the Commodore gains only half what the Crown Vic did, you're looking at an increase of US bound VE production.

So while you may call it a dream, it's actually part of GM's new plans....

..... and reinforcement against the Dodge Charger becoming "America's Only Police Car".

 

TX state troopers are already using Chargers. Other police agencies in TX using them as well.

 

As GM is so prone to selling cars at a LOSS, then heavy profit margins would theoretically make the business case for a North American Commodore solid as a rock -- but we havent seen a response like that from Pontiac or from GM in general.

Also if the Australian dollar rebounds it would obliterate those profits, and turning the whole thing from a profit-generating sale to a loss. As it isnt a "sure deal" I'm not convinced that the Commodore will reappear in North America.

 

If this pans out, it would be a good move for Chevrolet...I mean GM.

 

Couple of things.

First, the Aussie dollar won't "rebound". It inflated quickly. It's deflated, and will remain stable. The Aussie government will ensure it remains stable because they are actively pursuing a program of boosting exports for economic survival. High Aussie dollar makes anything exported from Australia expensive.

And second, nothing in the car business is a sure deal. Even to this very day, it isn't a sure deal that Camaro will still be in production at years end. Ford could wind up bankrupt in the same time.What would happen to Chrysler if Daimler decides to keep their 20% intrest in Chrysler and Cerberus simply gives Daimler their 80% which is already been written off and valued at $0 on their books?

But...

... you can be very sure that Camaro will still be around past this year, Ford won't be bankrupt, and that Daimler isn't going to take over Chrysler again.

You can also be pretty certain that save an uncontrolled bankruptcy or GM deciding to completely pull out of the full size car market here in North America, you likely haven't seen the last Holden made car imported from across the Pacific.

Not a "Sure" deal, mind you.... but about as certain as you can get under the current circumstances.



Quick note on business cases in the car world.

Presenting a business case for a all new car along with the investment for OEM to support it, automakers tend to look up to a decade down the road. A decade down the road doesn't currently support investing in large cars, which is why Ford decided against setting up a new large car RWD program here in North America and why GM decided the same thing. Chrysler was very much ahead of the curve, and the LX program will easily be around longer than 10 years total (as long as Chrysler is).

The pull for the WM is that it's program already exists and requires no additional investment when you compare it to developing the next DTS, Lucerne, or Impala for the US, despite it coming off an existing chassis.

That's money freed up to go to other genuinely needed projects.

 

Zeta Impala, Buick, DTS are dead, then Impala and DTS go to EpsilonII, and now that plan is dead. So the next Impala is going to be the G8 and Cadillac is going to get a Zeta again (statesman based) I'm I getting all this correct?

I thought Lacrosse was the large Epsilon Buick, it is a good amount bigger than a Malibu, this is what I thought the next (2011 or 2013) Impala was going to be based on.

 

I'm reading this and thinking to myself that GM might not be in this mess (or at least not as bad) if they would've brought out a replacement for the Caprice/Impala/Roadmaster/Fleetwood in 1997...

Surprise, the first affordable large rear wheel drive sedan to be offered since those killings turns out to be selling better than expected?

I believe the reason trucks and SUVs started selling so well is because the large RWD car market was abandoned for so long.

Kinda like I wonder what condition Chrysler would be in if the Ramcharger SUV would have stuck around with the 1994 redesign (other than just in Mexico..) That redesign was a home run and that was just when the SUV craze hit...

 

When I started reading this thread I had a feeling you would be jumping for joy...

Maybe you can get Debler to change your name to CaminoLS3

 

I said this in the other thread too. GM has no current plans to rebadge G8 for sales in North America.

The last boat load of G8s is US bound. Thats it. No more are coming over. There are 9,700 unsold G8s (down from 11,000 a few months ago) remaining. About 30% are V8s. Get them while they last.

No I can't find an article to support my statements, but I know and trust my sources.

Regarding fleet use, possible, but does that matter if the car is not for sale to consumers? I dont think so.

 

Read both your articles, Josh.

I've been trying to get out of the house for the past hour and a half, but I just had to come back here 1st. Thought I got away from internet addiction.


I just posted odds on Chrysler's survival in another thread (about 80% now, I'd say).

I'll still say the odds of any of this regarding GM's use of Holden sourced Zeta cars panning out to be about 60% at best right now.

No, not dead certain, but one portion of the plans that GM at this time is going over as an part of their restructuring plan to the government board at last word. And it's gotten pretty far along, and again at this time will, so far, be included in their plan.

These plans CAN change both before and after it's submitted, but it's certainly as solid as any plans you're likely to get from GM at this moment. This is where plans can change:

First, GM might simply pull completely out of the full sized car market leaving the CTS as GM's biggest car. GM could easily let the Impala, DTS, and Lucerne just run it's course till sales are so low it doesn't even pay the light bill, then shut it down.

The other thing that could happen is that unlike what's shaping up at Chrysler, GM's bankruptcy could fall to pieces. Daimler and Cerberus have zeroed out Chrysler's value on their balence sheet, and can easily walk away. Fiat is intrested in picking Chrysler up as long as it doesn't cost them anything. The UAW is going to own 55% of Chrysler in exchange for giving up just about everything. If Chrysler goes to bankruptcy court, it'll probably be over in less than an hour, and Chrysler will go back to making cars and trucks.

GM, at this point, is less certain.

General Motors debt is not just mindboggling, if it hadn't happened, just mentioning it would fall under fiction. GM is such a financial basket case that if the government doesn't become a primary owner, no one else is going to give GM the time of day, let alone money for a loan, bonds, or stock. There is very little if any colatteral owned by investors, and current GM stockholders techincally have stocks that have a negative value. That makes GM's future more unpredictable IHMO.



If I were to fastforward 35 days, and Chevrolet was A-OK, GM was moving smoothly through restructuring (with or without bankruptcy), then based on current best information available I'd give odds of Commodore showing up in Chevy showrooms at least in law enforcement form as about 95%. The works already done, and it was one of GM's fallback plans.

I'd give the chance that civilians can buy one (before the redesign) at about 60% (dependent on CAFE numbers, and projected sales... you simply couldn't sell this in traditional Chevrolet without adversley affecting CAFE or stressing out the Holden plant where it's made).

I'd give the WM a 65% chance. The Buick dealers left after reorganization could still refuse the car, and if Cadillac's dealer network was rolled in with Buick-GMC, Cadillac wouldn't need the volume from the DTS since it wouldn't be a stand alone division. But I give it 65% despite the potential bad news because it's a high profit margin car, and I think GM dealers (even Buick's) will be alot more cooperative nowadays.

The Ute as either a Chevy or GMC. I'd give Chevrolet VE's 95% chance. There is genuine intrest in the vehicle at GM-NA, and Pontiac really was a bad fit for such a vehicle. The vehicle's heritage is with Chevrolet and GMC, but it was forced to be a Pontiac because of the styling link. With Chevrolet getting the Commodore, the potential for the vehicle to fit right in with both showrooms.... that plus, the Ute was done, and all but on assembly lines being produced. The car was only cancelled last fall, and the 1st models would likely start showing up in showrooms by now.

 

It's more or less already official that the LaCrosse will be the biggest Buick sedan (they called it "the flagship"). And the W-Body Impala probably will stay in production forever. But if the DTS is going to be killed, that will be big news.

Watch out because reports are already coming out today that Alpha is delayed/dead and Cadillac is getting a new BTS on Epsilon. (Fingers crossed it is not true.)

I've made the point before that Epsilon is going to have to be the company's workhorse (i.e. K-Car), because Alpha just won't have that kind of volume.

Of course at this point Fritz Henderson himself couldn't tell you with certainty what GM will be producing in 2012. So any rumors about future products is about as good as a GM bond.

 

What happens to Sigma?

 

All of those reports emanated from a bogus Motor Trend story. Disregard them.

It continues until it gets replaced.

 

What kind of time frame are we talking? 2012? Seems as though they would only have to do minor changes to this car to switch to a Chevy, 2 years seems like a long time considering the G8 was already certified in the U.S.

 

Replaced when and by what?