It's called "The End Of Detroit: How the Big Three Lost Control of the American Market"

I'm reading Comeback now, but the only problem with it is that it was published in 1994. A lot has happened since then. So I'm looking forward to this. Here's a synopsis posted at BON:

http://www.blueovalnews.com/endofdetroitnewsrelease.doc

The author is making the rounds in MI:

http://www.blueovalnews.com/endofdetroitschedule.doc

Anyone had a chance to see or read this book at all yet? The author makes some big predictions....I would take them with a grain of salt for now.

 

Well I haven't read it or anything but I think the author will have to eat crow on his predictions.

 

No, I haven't read the book. But after reading that news release document, this a book that I would be interested in.

 

Stepping back from the emotion of being involved in the auto industry and taking an honest look at the state of current affairs, I think the author is going to be correct on the majority of his predictions.

 

Her.

At anyrate, Detroit's current turn around will be as successful as Cadillac. If Caddy is able to knock down walls in Europe and regain marketshare in the US, it will prove the GM can beat the stiffest competition in the world, that'll be the image boost domestics have needed for the past 15 years. That will sell rwd Chevys and Ponchos.

 

Doh - my bad.

Working inside the industry, I still see a lot of behind-the-scenes things going on that will hinder the ability of the Big 3 to prosper in the long term, especially in their relationship with their supply chains. And then there's business direction - do they want to turn cars into a simple commodity item with the idea that a high-volume low-purchase-price approach is the best way to keep factories running at capacity, or will they eschew the low end of the market and take more of a lower-volume higher-margin approach? Look at GM right now and it's clear they're completely confused as to which direction they'd like to head in (well, I'm sure they'd like to do high-volume high-margin).

I think the bottom line is that the assessment that there may not be room for three "domestic" manufacturers could very well be correct, and frankly if there's a time ripe for paring down the field a bit it's going to be over the next few years.

Unfortunately, fixing the industry as a whole will be considerably more difficult than Caddy's turn-around, which really wasn't all that difficult of a problem to understand (build a powerful RWD sedan and you'll grab a nice chunk of the near-luxury market).

 

Quote from the intro:

By 2010, one of the Big Three will not continue in its present form—the vast array of choices available to consumers simply dictates that there is no need for three mass-market American car companies.

If Ford doesn't start reaping the same profit margins as GM does and if they don't start getting consistent profitability, I can very easily see this happen. They are in trouble.

 

There was a time people thought it would be unthinkable that Pan Am would go under...same for Eastern Airlines. I sure hope GM is doing what it says it's doing....The track history of past management is to cover up problems from the public and distort the reasoning behind their actions.

 

Look, the decline of Detroit's automakers can be attributed to one thing - putting the wrong people in charge who also happen to make the wrong decisions. People who are also so arrogant that they never admit to making a mistake, so there is no way to correct them.

I really think that in the auto industry it is more important to have CEOs and other executives that are passionate about cars than to have people like this who are just good with numbers. You can always hire people who are good with numbers to supply execs with data. Also, this whole idea of hiring execs from outside the industry is absolutely assinine. Companies should cultivate people from their own ranks to head key positions.

 

It takes months to crumble a company.It takes years to bring it back.

Why did you point your finger at Ford,When Chrysler is hurting worse then Ford AND GM combined.Ford is making money,They just arent "beating" last years profit margin.

 

I agree. If any of the Big Three...errr..."Two and a Half" go down, my money would be that Chrysler is completely absorbed by Daimler-Benz.

 

Chrysler has the considerable financial backing of Daimler, which gives them access to cash and credit.

Ford, on the other hand, is having difficulty keeping its bond rating above the "junk" status. Folks on Wall Street haven't been kind to the credit rating of either Ford or GM, and for good reason considering the debt load of each company relative to its profits (GM, after all, took on $13B in new debt this past summer via a bond sale).

Therefore, it's my opinion that Chrysler's survival depends mostly upon the wishes and whims of its parent company - they can weather a pretty long storm if the guys in Stuttgart decide to hold the course. On the other hand, there's no rich sugerdaddy there to bail out GM and Ford if things go south quickly, and as Ford's in the weaker position, they're the one that everyone sees as spiraling downward first.

If/when something like this does happen, I think people will be shocked at how fast it happens, and how far the ripple effect extends.

 

From autobeatdaily.com on 19Sep2003:

Scary stuff for those of us that make a living off the boys in Auburn Hills.

 

I think they'll all be OK. Just give it a while, we already know things are gonna turn around.