Something just recently dawned on me.

It takes years to get a car from idea to showroom. GM has alot of products in the pipeline that will IMO give it command of the marketplace as long as the sourcing guys don't pull a Solstice on the things by settling for cheap stuff instead of working stuff. But if GM does go critical mass, and melts into history, it's going to occur when everything is hitting the streets at the end of the decade.

GM was in far worse shape 15 years ago, when it litterally was broke and facing bankruptcy, oddly as soon as Roger Smith walked out the door with a then mind blowing amount of cash into retirement. It took GM years to get into that position, and all it took was a mild recession to nearly wipe it out.




Currently, GM still has alot in their favor. They have 3 very strong brands Chevy, Cadillac, & GMC. Saturn is about to see a sudden turn around in fortunes (your opinion of them today will be forgotten within 24 months ). Last time I checked, Cadillac was the world's best selling luxury brand, and it's about to expand in Europe & Australia. But GM has some troubling things against it.

Buick is starting to look hopeless. Lecrosse isn't selling well (last October Buick sold over 7600 LeSabres and another 2600 Centurys. Lecrosse... which replaces both cars.... sold only 5161 last month). I think the Lecerne will do better than the Park Avenue did last year, but the PA was outsold by DeVille in 2004 3 to 1. Not exactly a hard target.

Over at Pontiac, Grand Prix is the only good news. In a month GM's sales were down 23%, GP sold the same amount as 1 year ago... without employee discounts. That's the only good news at Pontiac. Even though G6 sales are up 135% to 9400 cars, it's still not up to last years Grand Am-G6 total of 11,200 and it's a far cry from Grand Am's 14-15K per month rate it was running it's final years.

However, as much as I'd like to say otherwise, GM's biggest problem (the ones that could sink the company) isn't it's sales figures. It's GM's corperate mindset.


Here's how I see this.

First, Bob Lutz stated famously that GM needed more "Gotta-have-it" cars. We got a phenominal Corvettes, V-series, and a really hot looking HHR. But we also got a new Impala that's a yawn, a bland Malibu nose that makes some miss the old one, and a new Tahoe and Suburban whose exterior is likely to go un-noticed by the public (Lecrosse is mostly old GM, so I excluded it). GM needs to inject the excitement factor of it's "fringe" models into it's mainstream models.... and that includes it's sedans and trucks.

I said long ago, that the SSR should have been the looks of the S10 replacement. It would have been a gamble, but even today after years on the market, heads still snap around when one drives by. Now that the higher volume HHR is doing extremely well, I might have been right. GM needs to be this daring across the board.


Second, GM seems to be expert at coming up with fantastic ideas in one department, then allows it to be ripped to shreds when it moves to another. This doesn't only apply to new products, but it seems new ideas as well.

Value Pricing is a fantastic idea, whose time has long come. Take the average transaction price of a vehicle, and use that as the sticker instead of overcharging then giving the money back , usually combined with paying additional money to dealers to move the cars. However, somewhere along the line, someone got the idea that instead transaction prices, Value Pricing should be a few hundred off sticker insted of thousands. GM planned to stick with Value Pricing for at least 90 days before considering any incentives, but someone came up with the idea of not only bringing them back... not only making them huge.... but putting them on everything, even the new stuff.

Another good idea that was compromised was combining Buick, Pontiac, and GMC under one dealership. Although it's done in most dealerships already, getting rid of overlap within the group was again an idea that made sense. As a certain person pointed out "The fat lady hasn't sang" yet, but bringing out a Equinox based Torrent and a Pontiac Cobalt (even if just in Canada) doesn't exactly aid credibility.



Third, GM has a chronic problem of thinking with the left side of the brain, and doesn't seem to understand the right. Cases in point:

*GM was slow to understand why the Chrysler 300 was getting so much press, but the far more logical and budget priced and high value Buick Lecrosse didn't.

*Wall Street is starting to take bets GM goes bankrupt within a year (down from 2 just last week). With the upcoming auto show season, GM absolutely needs to show what they have coming, in a sort of auto show "Blitz". However, word is (and I hope this is wrong) that GM will show a few concepts but will focus mainly on their new truck line this year. Bad idea since they don't exactly have drop dead styling (save maybe the details in the Escalade).


Finally, you don't get yourself healthy by selling off your limbs. Selling the profitable GMAC makes no sense whatsoever. Every lesson I ever saw, you want to spin off parts that aren't making money. Just before Studebaker collasped, they sold off their foundary to raise money for the company, effectively ending their ability to make engines (the started buying from Chevrolet). Does GM know what selling off profitable parts tell investors about the company's health? Any wonder why investment firms are judging GM a "sell"?



GM is going to need to display ALOT of guts, and nerve now. Ther are obviously people in the right places who grasp the problem, and have dead on solutions. LeNeve's Value Pricing, Lutz's upcoming "Holy Mackrel" cars, and Wagner's move to finally streamline B-P-GMC are all but a sure thing. But they have to stand more firmly than it appears they are. Dealers & boardmembers have to realize it's going to take a few months of bad sales to help GM shed it's K-Mart image.

And GM is going to have to step out of it's normal mode of operations and actually tilt their hand in order to stop the hemmorage of investors. A select few stockholders and small spattering of press (that are forbidden to talk specifics of what they saw) isn't enough to curb "Junk Bond" status and "Sell" reccomendations.

 

Lacross seems too bland, but clean and a little sporty...probably,visually, just a tad small...like a rebadged G6..
The V8 might just be the "saving grace" of the Lucerne and Buick...can't wait to drive one, and if the economy turns around soon, replace my PA-Ultra with a "V8 !" Lucerne..
Century, is too, Last Century...needs a new model as well.

Before, PA sales were probably low b/c you could buy a LeSabre, basically same car, cheaper...minus some chrome, bells and whistles.

They need some more "Big" in Buick, newer models appear smaller...Give Cadillac more tech and Luxury, but Buick more Elegance-with- Value.

 

[hijack] What do you do for a living? Its almost like you are an editor or writer for a car mag..??..[/hijack]

 

you're kidding, right?

 

The sad thing is that Buicks are well made cars. Very reliable, etc. They just don't sell.

I could see Buick and possibly Pontiac being axed. I agree that if GM spins off GMAC they would be making one of the dumbest decisions ever.

 

For the most part I agree with your musings. Just a couple quick rebuttals...

A bit early to make such a damning judgement, isn't it? They'll do just fine, especially considering the leap forward in chassis, powertrain and materials.

Maybe in a perfect world this would've been possible. The compound curves in the SSR's fenders were hard/expensive enough to do on a niche vehicle. Mass-producing all the SSR panels for an S10 replacement would've been a nightmare.

I agree with pretty much everything else. GM will be ok provided the product that is coming in the next few years is everything it is proclaimed to be. If it isn't,.....yikes.....

 

In case for some reason you are actually being serious, his name is Guy McCoy and he has written articles for Popular Hot Rod magazine, maybe some others, I am not sure on that.

 

I think GM better start unveiling some groundbreaking mainstream designs, like NOW, or they are going to fall to pieces. Plus, consider:

The largest auto manufacture is still leaving major segments unserved or underserved:

*Where are the hybrid cars?
*Where are the hatchbacks?
*Where are the small or medium traditional wagons?
*Diesels?
*Camaro?
*AWD sedans?

 

As usual, Guy hits it pretty much on the head.

When I saw the new "blue light special," I almost fell over. What the hell were they thinking. Do the shareholders and boardmembers have all of managements cajones in a jar??? Can they not withstand a few months of bad sales........... in search of a better future???

They tout "value pricing," "value pricing,"............ yet only have the ***** to stick to it for one whole month??? Could there possibly be one person on the planet who actually thought that sales would be even close to decent, after one of the biggest "give it away" fests of all times???

I'm sorry to sound annoyed........ but I am. If GM keeps this kind of stupidity up, noone will believe a word of what they say............ and noone will buy a car/truck from them, unless they are giving it away. Why should they??? Everyone knows the next "blue light special" is just around the corner.

As for putting all of their eggs in their SUV/truck basket. That is assinine also. These trucks, while nice, are nothing special. Now, before anyone bashes me here, hear me out. They are very nice, clean, non offensive, safe, bland, and have interiors that are worlds ahead of the old versions (this is not hard to do). However, this formula is hardly earth shattering. This formula will do a good job at keeping the loyal, who are still buying these products........... loyal. However, what is it doing to draw in conquest sales. I'm not talking about Ford and Dodge sales, because the big 3 (2.5) have been trading a few of those back and forth forever. I'm talking about import conquest sales. Why would a Camry owner, who wants to buy an SUV, buy the new Tahoe over a Sequoia??? What does it offer that is so special??? Does it have IRS............. no. Does it have fold flat 3rd row seats.............. no. Is there a Hybrid version available............... no. Does it have "wow" styling............. no. In other words, there is nothing to draw in new people. Yes it has power............ but how many mainstream SUV buyers base their purchase on that??? What they will see is "same ol" "same ol" domestic SUV with a solid axle, an antiquated 4-speed automatic, and pleasant styling and interior. It will not change any minds.

Again, I think they are great SUV's, don't get me wrong. I am just playing the devils advocate here.

Don't even get me started on the possible sale of GMAC. That just reeks of desperation.

It almost seems as if GM is purposely positioning themselves for bankruptcy. God, I sure hope that is not the case. What a sad day for domestic manufacturing that would be.

 

guionM

I agree with everything you wrote. GM's gotta have's are basically low volume vehicles. GM needs mass volume head turners. The sooner they get the Holden RWD platform out with swish styling the sooner they can turn the company around.

I too agree the trucks look conservative. Not bad though... it's the interiors which will win people over (I hope)... trucks needn't be extroverted in design. They are practical vehicles. Will wait on sales figures before we prejudge.

I'm getting tired of all the 'wait and see' talk about future products when really the turnaround should have already started by now. It didn't take Nissan that long to reverse their fortunes from a near death experience. Although not exaclty a great company in the same way as Toyota or Honda, Nissan have a great product lineup in the US.

Anyway, what would I know, I'm only an Aussie living downunder?

 

That's pretty much it - RIGHT THERE.

For the past, oh...decade and a half or so, I've been at the edge of my seat, waiting. Waiting for the slew of gotta have products that GM keeps promising are right around the corner. By and large, these products never really came. Now we're promised - again - that a slew of gotta have products are around the corner. THIS TIME, GM has to deliver....no ifs, ands or buts. You can see GM's products steadily improving, sure, but that's not enough. GM needs blockbusters, one after the other.

As far as the Red Tag sale.....well.....GM needs to move some metal. It's not going to simply happen by wishful thinking. Nevertheless, until GM builds Malibus and Impalas that teary eyed 12 year old boys, beg their fathers to buy.....everyday "Value Pricing" needs a better value price.

BTW......

Why doesn't Pontiac have a competitor to Mitsubishi Evo or Mazda Speed6?

If a Buick sedan offered AWD, would that be a marketing bonanza for GM - and would it make more people notice Buick?

Why does the BMW 3 series outsell the CTS and why doesn't Caddy have a DIRECT competitor to it?

Why can't mainline Chevy sheetmetal be gorgeous? Was there a focus group that indicated people wouldn't buy pretty cars in volume?

Is Saturn a really dorky name...wouldn't you rather buy an Opel?

 

Pretty much right on as always Guy. Nice job!

Now let's just hope someone at GM get's it.

 

There's a lot I disagree with about GuionM's post, more than I really have time to go into. Overall it's disappointing to see him chiming in like many of the other 'enthusiasts' here, with their own doting prescriptions for poor ailing GM. It seems all people can focus on is the troublesome aspects instead of the good. I happen to agree with the poster above, who pointed out that the new Tahoe for example is a solid improvement and will likely do fine (that horse has already been beaten to death, people are not LOOKING for outrageous throat-grabbing new styles in that segment!). It continually amazes me how people here can gloss over the improvements and achievements GM has brought recently. The H2, H3, CTS-V, STS-V, Grand Prix GXP, yes the new Tahoe, Chevy Aveo, Z06, Saturn Redlines, Cobalt SS, GTO, the list continues of world-class great designs available at great prices but of course that's not good enough for the discerning experts here

And GM's steady determined march of improved quality and reliability, bringing it on par or above the best in the world... ignored. GM's leadership in modern automotive sales marketing, evidenced by their leadership after the 911 massacre and ensuing 0/0 and employee pricing initiatives, quickly forgotten. Face it folks. They nailed the competition to the WALL with those unexpected and profoundly successful campaigns. The only thing holding them back from growing market share and profit is their onerous UAW agreements... again to be changing very soon. So I'm a little sick and tired of the continued whining from GM 'fans'.

 

It must have been about two years ago I said here that GM needs a few well placed, all around no compromises cars. Example, there is still not answer for the Camry/Accord and Cobalt is just months old. Now the Cobalt has to go up against the new Civic this year, but at least it's here and stacks up much better against the old one than Cavelier ever could.

I also argued with those that said GM's image is doomed ala Saturn. Before we all saw the amazing Sky and Aura here, I drumed up the "kill Saturn" banner. Once I saw those cars and though the typical reaction here was "these are nice, but they're not Saturn cars" I knew Saturn could be transformed. This is exactly the kind of reaction all of GM's new cars need! That is instead of stickers telling us that "yes, this is in fact a GM product." If Saturn is successful (as it should be) with the new cars, then this treatment should be extended to the rest of GM.

Its the product, stupid!

 

GM also has some serious competition. I think Toyota alone is going to bring out 22 new "products" in the next 15 months.


http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosins.../B02-58761.htm


I totally agree styling wise, Gm can't hang with the rest of the market.. The "gotta have it" cars are just not there. Their truck lineup looks too conservative it seems exterior wise. They need a fire lit under the asses of the designers at GM.

The one car they nailed styling wise (solstice) is not widely available yet, and dealer markups are once again a problem.