JG got me thinking:

You ever hear the saying: "If a nuclear war broke out and all animals became extinct, cockroaches would still survive"?

Holden may by no means be a cockroach, but it will no doubt whatsoever be the one part of GM still standing whatever happens.

Holden is extremely strong in Australia due to it's business plan that is heavily export based. Their Elizebeth City plant makes Chevrolets for the Middle East & South America. They also export to South Africa & New Zealand. They sell in China and Korea via knockoff kits. They export cars to Europe. Holden is also the center of GM's pacific and Middle East operations. They have Daewoo and soon to be former Isuzu under their wings.

Holden's product lineup is already intergrated with Opels and Daewoos.

They also have a government that's strongly protective of their industry and Aussies are fiercely independent. As huge as Chevrolet is, I'd still give Holden the bigger edge of survival if GM implodes... and I give Chevrolet a pretty strong chance (Chevy is a marketing division while Holden is actually a manufacturing company... and fully capable of functioning without GMNA unlike Chevy).

If North America collaspsed, I can easily see Holden buying up alot of North America's powertrain machinary and moving it down under and keep on chugging along. Keep in mind, Holden was all but independent (even making their own V8 engines) till about 10 years ago. Even today, they make GM's new OHC V6 engines..... and they are still comparatively profitable.

GM could collaspe and dissappear from the face of North America. But Holden will most certainly be around (linked with a German government assisted Opel and a Daewoo that's directly linked to Holden).

I also see GM of China continuing.

China is the 2nd biggest car market on thye planet, and GM was very wise to get a foothold there. GM is now the most successful automaker there. All new Buick designs will come from China. More Buicks are sold there (by a large margin now) than in North America. I see this continuing in association with Holden.

As I mentioned, I see Germany (already a fairly wealthy country) strongly helping Opel if need be. Opel is already a strong brand in Europe and Vauxhall is nothing more than an Opel with a different badge and right hand drive and sold in Great Britian.

In the end, if GMNA does die, it will likely continue on as a patchwork of global companies that will export to the United States and North America.

It won't help our economy, but what's left of General Motors should be very profitable. Although already operating at greater capacity than most US plants and already basically profitable, overseas operations will grow even more efficient since the overseas factories in Europe, Australia, Korea, and even China will be operating at higher volume to supply the United States. They should become quite rich quite fast with even only modest sales to the US.

General Motors is simply too big to completely disappear, and only the home North American market is GM doing so poorly it is sucking up resources from it's other divisions globally.

I can see maybe North America continuing to supply trucks in a dead GMNA under a foreign based entity or US investor since they actually are still profit makers.

Ironic isn't it?

 

Th downside to that picture is that G.M. then becomes yet another foriegn import brand.

 

I guess this will depend on what is considered part of GM's assets if they go under. If GM declares bankruptcy, and has to liquidate its assets, can the US gov't only go after holdings here in the US? If overseas assets can be seized, Holden and Opel may not have much of a say in this.

 

That could be a good thing, especially since there's such a "huge perception" against any vehicles made by an American auto company.

 

I'd imagine they'd go after US assets and have GM's overseas operations make payments on the balence of what's left of a $25 billion debt.

Going after assets overseas will likely take longer and be more problematic than simply having what's left of GM pay back what US assets don't cover. With the US dollar exchange rates, it could plausibly be payed off within a reasonably short time. Far less time than trying to get something like this through a German court.

More diplomatically friendly as well.

 

25 billion would be over teh 3 and suppliers. So really, how much would GM get? Max 10 billion. Enough to keep the place open for a month.
10 Billion could easily be paid back with GM's assets.
Hell, Holden could purchase Chevy for 2 billion as well as some of its plans, and Chevy could be part of Holden Motor Co.

Whats to stop Holden from becoming a seperate company, where they could purchase GM's strong assets? Same with Opel? Then Opel and Holden combine under one company?

 

And they could call it General Motors!

 

In a similar fashion, my former employer (an engineering & construction firm who's roots go back to the 1930's and the construction of the Hoover Dam) sold off several of its divisions, and has liquidated everything but a holding company that's sole responsibility is manage retirees benefits for those still under the old regime until the last beneficiary becomes deceased.

That remains a likely scenario should GM need to file for bankruptcy and sell off its assets. The technological assets of GM would remain, however they would be spread out over several companies; the only things lost would be the GM name and financial commitments to retirees from before the divestiture.

 

If that happens I hope Holden buys the rights to the Gen V V8's

 

what would happen to warranties?

 

Warranties, to me, are almost like mortgages. They end up being sold to other mortgage companies, and your loan doesn't change, just the person to whom you write the check does. I would think this would be the case with the warranties. Although, warranties are not revenue generating vehicles for a company. What would probably happen is you would receive a piece of paper, stating if you want your current warranty coverage to continue, you need to pay $x amount. Kind of like that Cobra insurance coverage, if you quit your job, and work provided you with insurance.

 

Is it true that G.M. could be split into different companies and then the North American part declares bankruptcy while the others are left intract? I keep hearing that argument on the XM news channels.

 

That's pretty much the basis of my thread.

While the rest of GM's empire is doing relatively well financially, GM North America seems to be a financial basket case that's apparently is sucking the life out of everything else. Almost like a perfectly good tugboat chained to the sinking Titanic.

I see GM's overseas operations staying together. Holden & GM Latin America are still doing well (though Holden's sales are down). Opel is getting government help, but is in nowhere near what we here in the US would call "Bad Shape". Daewoo is booming because where they once were strictly a Korean market company, now they are supplying cars to the US and Europe. Outside of the US, GM is interconnected, making cars and selling them in each other's markets under each other's names.

 

Just making sure.

 

That makes sense from a financial standpoint, but if GMNA goes under, what happens to the dealerships? And without the dealerships, where does a customer go for warranty service?