What does GM look like? What kinds of cars and trucks are they selling?

 

They will look like a cross between GM Europe and GM Brazil but with Alpha as the only RWDs and GMT900s as vehicles that only contractors or businesses buy. Developing plug-in hybrids is their priority and gas is $10 a gallon in the USA.

 

Saturn dead. Saab dead. Buick dead. Hummer dead. GMC becomes a work vehicle division only. Cadillac lineup expands to include small, medium and large SUVs, has added a car the is underneath the CTS. Kills off the DTS, making the STS the top of the line. Coupes, sedans and wagon version of all. Pontiac aborbs the good traits of Saturn (European styling) and the good traits of Saab (turbos throughout the lineup, which helps with power and MPG) and Buick (the near luxury interiors). Chevrolet has the hybrids and electrics along with the better versions of the traditional stuff, eg, the Malibu, Camaro and Vette.


Or they could just go with the Toyota model; Pontiac like Scion, Chevrolet in the middle and Cadillac like Lexus.

 

As much as I see it making sense in the US I just can't see GM gettin rid of their number one selling brand in China.

 

Fine - sell Buicks in China, but not in the US. That seems to work for the brand names such as Holden, Opal, Vauxhall, and Daewoo.

If GM exists in 2012, it needs to be three brands or less (Chevy, Caddy, and ???), and the line-up needs to pretty much run the range as we see now but with less overlap. Vehicles like the Camaro could still exist but probably wouldn't sell 100K units/year. Pickups won't be selling 1M units/year, and the majority might not have 325 HP, four doors, and leather seats. Full-size SUVs are probably dead or have at least reverted back to what the Suburban was in the 70s (a utility truck that might also be owned by a farmer or a really hard-core RVer). An excellent lineup of Chevrolet passenger cars exists, with B- through D-class offerings that truly rival the Japanese. Each and every model of car and crossover is available with GM's excellent Two Mode hybrid system. The Volt is still largely a non-player, with a couple thousand units per year trickling out into the public's hands.

 

Agreed

 

I can see some sort of Buick -GMDAT tie up. Whether Buick will still be a US brand, who knows. Saturn will be moved into what is now BPG. Perhaps it may even be replaced by the Opel name, and BPG becomes something like Opel/Saab/Buick

I can see lots of fully optioned small cars. Leather, nav, turbos, everything - and people won't expect them to be cheapo little cars for nearly free, like they do now.

Chevy trucks get the 4.5L diesel and perhaps a GenV smallblock. I still see a 900 SUV available as a niche player.

Cadillac will still have Sigma, with Alpha around the corner.

 

I also think Buick will live on in China even if it is dropped in the USA (which it should be if sales are not there). That wouldn't be unreasonable, after all Holden, Opel, Vauxhall, Deawoo all exist exclusively over seas and Pontiac and Saturn are exclusive to North America.

Chinese Buicks don't resemble American Buicks anyways.

I still think we will need gas to be over $5 for that to happen.

President Obama wants to get the USA off imported oil within 10 years. To do that electricity will need to be the more economical fuel. The stage is set for gasoline to be expensive (as we say a preview of this past summer), now we just need the renewable domestic electricity to handle the added demand.

 

2012?

We'll still be waiting for many of those changes to happen.

The G8 will still be on the market as will the fifth gen, and we'll be hunting Alpha spy pics.

 

It won't matter if gas is a nickel per gallon.


CAFE.

 

I like Charlie's idea of bringing Saturn into the BPG group but how about instead of bringing SAAB into the group we just make SAAB the European rebadges of the US and China Buick brand?

The worldwide breakdown would be a little easier:

Chevy/Caddy-worldwide
Pontiac=Holden (AUS)
Saturn=Opel (EU)
Buick (US/China)=SAAB (EU)
GMC=Chevy truck rebadges

Perhaps Pontiac and Saturn should merge. Perhaps Hummer could be folded into GMC.

 

If you think the Europeans rejected redone Saabs as Cadillacs, wait until you try to sell them rebadged Buicks as Saabs.

 

Would it be rebadged Buicks as SAABs or rebadged SAABs as Buicks? Maybe that depends on who you ask.

 

Realistically, putting my opinion of what I would do aside?

All current General Motors divisions will survive.

The number of chassis will be cut drastically, and what's left will provide a wide range of vehicles to the GM divisions. Example would be how Chrysler managed to use the K-car to create just about every type of vehicle imagined in the 80s.

GM will bring a number of vehicles to the US or manufacture them in the US, instead of taking a architecture and then engineering cars off of them for different countries as they do now.

I see the Espilon, Lambada, & Delta surviving. I see Zeta surviving as a premium GM chassis, but I don't see it being replaced for some time. I don't see the GMT900 being replaced for the next 10 years (though I can see occasional restylings).

In 2010, GM (as will all US automakers) will reap the full benefits of the UAW's last contract, as well the massive cuts and restructuring that GM has and will do over the next 12 months which will finally start to pay off.

Gas prices will be irrelevent at that point since all 3 automakers are solidly on course to make more fuel efficient vehicles as well as the fact that the public's buying habits have changed. Large truck sales aren't going to bounce back in the forseeable future and V8 powered cars are going to sell in such small numbers that they simply won't affect CAFE.

I see Hummer sold off. I see Cadillac's quest to become a global competitor fade out.

I base this on how auto companies go into survival mode (Chrysler in the 80s, Ford in the early 80s and again today, even Studebaker in the late 50s). As many vehicles as possible are rolled onto as few chassis as possible, while a paid for large car chassis is continued as long as it's profitable.

GM doesn't have the cash handy to downsize divisions, so I'd imagine they would try to lump them together if as no more than marketing and advertizing.

 

Who knows how things might play out. There is one scenario that goes if GM (GMNA) declares bankruptcy, GME spins off as it's own company.

For sure, a 7 series/S class competitor, or even a DTS replacement will not be in the foreseeable future. Cadillac's backbone product will remain the CTS.

As far as a global competitor goes, I submit that Alpha will potentially establish Cadillac in that regard, far better than any other product could. A real competitor to the 3series/C class/IS/G37/A4 is where Cadillac NEEDS to be right now, and will go a long way towards establishing itself as a global brand.

Alpha is critically important for Cadillac - both here and globally.