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So what if Ethanol became cheap and widely available?

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Old May 31, 2008 | 09:16 AM
  #1  
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So what if Ethanol became cheap and widely available?

Against UN wishes, there's still alot of research going on with BioFuels. Last week researchers found a way to reduce the production cost of ethanol by 1/3rd:
http://www.dailytech.com/Corn+Ethano...ticle11901.htm

Earlier in the month I read a pretty good article about using algae to create ethanol:
http://www.dailytech.com/Algae+May+S...ticle11671.htm
Benefits: First it’s fast-growing. Secondly, it removes carbon dioxide from the air. Finally, it's a non-food crop and will have less impact on food prices. Algae has more energy density than soybeans, a typical high-energy land crop.

Obviously there are going to be draw backs to either scenario, but right now BioFuels are in a state of rapid technological boom, as would be expected with your normal cycle of progression of technology.

So assume this hypothetical scenario:
With a combination of production sources, BioFules become cheap ($2/gallon) and widely available, without terribly affecting the price of world wide food. I've been really trying to think through two questions:

1. What would this do for the electric car over the next 10 years? At $2 a gallon the personal business case for an electric car becomes a little clouded until the battery progresses to cheap and useful state, which does not sound like it will happen for several years according to Eric's comments in this thread:
https://www.camaroz28.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=605570

2. How mad would you be if CAFE standards, for all intensive purposes, killed the V8 and GM replaced most of its 4 passenger RWD cars with hipo V6 motors (albeit on lower weight platforms)?
Old May 31, 2008 | 09:24 AM
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be very interesting to see im convinced that either ethanol or hydrogen fuel cells are the future. there is just to much holding battery technology back and to many limitations on the consumer/driver. I use 4 ton battery operated fork lifts at work and from using them i just cant see it working well on a car.

by the way ethanol is 2.95 a gallon while regular is 4.06 by me

Last edited by GRNcamaro; May 31, 2008 at 09:30 AM.
Old May 31, 2008 | 09:54 AM
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At $2/gallon for a usable biofuel (like ethanol), there is simply no case for electric cars. Hell, there's hardly a case for the far less expensive hybrid technology until you get gasoline into the $5-6 range, and you need to push gas well into the double-digits before plug-in hybrids or all-out EVs start to look like financially-attractive solutions.
Old May 31, 2008 | 10:52 AM
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2. How mad would you be if CAFE standards, for all intensive purposes, killed the V8 and GM replaced most of its 4 passenger RWD cars with hipo V6 motors (albeit on lower weight platforms)?
These days, not that mad. I've pretty much always been an efficiency afficionado (check that out ), and the V8 will always have its place in halo cars (I can't see a 4cyl Vette in any future), but for mainstream cars, I have no issue with V6s.

e.g. A G8 with an E85-optimized DI, Turbo'ed V6 as the top dog offering wouldn't bother me at all, particularly if the car weight was brought down into the 3400lbs range.

(grammar alert- it's "for all intents and purposes")
Old May 31, 2008 | 10:55 AM
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They have also been able to create cheaper ethanol fuel even than the corn based stuff using Garbage.. you know.. free stuff everyone throws away lol. We could just about eliminate landfills at that point. Almost.
Old May 31, 2008 | 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Angelis83LT
They have also been able to create cheaper ethanol fuel even than the corn based stuff using Garbage.. you know.. free stuff everyone throws away lol. We could just about eliminate landfills at that point. Almost.
Keep in mind that all of this "cheap garbage" is largely due to cheap oil. If energy gets more expensive, then our waste will decrease.
Old May 31, 2008 | 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by GRNcamaro

by the way ethanol is 2.95 a gallon while regular is 4.06 by me
i'd be loving a E-85 compatible car right now.
Old May 31, 2008 | 11:36 AM
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Let me get this out of the way before anyone else blast E-85.
You only get 2/3 the MPG so, your real cost would be 3.92 per gallon for the same range.

Okay, I like that we are in the beginning of this Biofuel boom. It just keeps getting cheaper and cheaper to produce. I can only imagine what 10 years will bring. I also like that if we grow it the money is staying here in the U.S. that creates a money circulation in ones home country. Getting off foreign oil would be worth the $3.92 per gallon.
Old May 31, 2008 | 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by 97z28/m6
i'd be loving a E-85 compatible car right now.
Given the lower energy content of E85, you'd be pretty much breaking even in that scenario. But at least it's an option.
Old May 31, 2008 | 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by soul strife
Let me get this out of the way before anyone else blast E-85.
You only get 2/3 the MPG so, your real cost would be 3.92 per gallon for the same range.

Okay, I like that we are in the beginning of this Biofuel boom. It just keeps getting cheaper and cheaper to produce. I can only imagine what 10 years will bring. I also like that if we grow it the money is staying here in the U.S. that creates a money circulation in ones home country. Getting off foreign oil would be worth the $3.92 per gallon.

Yes. Thank you.

Ethanol would have to be $1 - $1.50 per gallon for it to be worth it for the average consumer.
And that's leaving out the "domestically grown & produced" part of the equation. It's clear that American consumers, for the most part, don't really care where stuff is made.
Old May 31, 2008 | 12:01 PM
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very truw but it seems the higher gas goes the larger the gap between e85 and gas gets. e85 was 2.92 here when gas was 3.75-3.85 when gas was cheaper i dont know because they just put the pumps in about a month ago and i been watching it like a hawk. not that i have a car that can run on it.


also it may get cheaper as production gets better and if we start to use more and more of it maybe then can make cars run more efficiently on it. im still uncertain of e85 but
Old May 31, 2008 | 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by soul strife
Let me get this out of the way before anyone else blast E-85.
You only get 2/3 the MPG so, your real cost would be 3.92 per gallon for the same range.

Okay, I like that we are in the beginning of this Biofuel boom. It just keeps getting cheaper and cheaper to produce. I can only imagine what 10 years will bring. I also like that if we grow it the money is staying here in the U.S. that creates a money circulation in ones home country. Getting off foreign oil would be worth the $3.92 per gallon.
Originally Posted by R377
Given the lower energy content of E85, you'd be pretty much breaking even in that scenario. But at least it's an option.
Kind of...a FLEX FUEL capable engine gets only 2/3's the output, if the engine were designed for E85 only, it would have a significantly higher compression ratio and would negate that power loss.
Old May 31, 2008 | 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by soul strife
Let me get this out of the way before anyone else blast E-85.
You only get 2/3 the MPG so, your real cost would be 3.92 per gallon for the same range.

Okay, I like that we are in the beginning of this Biofuel boom. It just keeps getting cheaper and cheaper to produce. I can only imagine what 10 years will bring. I also like that if we grow it the money is staying here in the U.S. that creates a money circulation in ones home country. Getting off foreign oil would be worth the $3.92 per gallon.
Totally false. Even flex fuel vehicles don't get 2/3 the mileage with E85, it's more like 1/4 (about 25%-35% decrease in fuel mileage is standard for E85 vs regular 87 octane fuel). If you don't believe it, go to www.fueleconomy.gov and look up each flex fuel vehicle, they are conviently listed with the E85 and gasoline numbers side by side. A good example is the 2008 Silverado 5.3L flex fuel, which gets a combined 13 for E85 and 17 for gas. That's about a 24% difference. It's the same if you use the city/highway mileages too.

I live in an area where E85 is about a $1.30 cheaper than regular gas right now. I wish I had an E85 vehicle, because I'd be saving money if I could use it. It would be even better if I had a vehicle that was optimized for E85, because then the engine could be set to only run it, and get even better fuel mileage than a flex fuel vehicle. We probably won't ever see an E85 vehicle get equal mileage to a gas vehicle due to the lesser energy content than gasoline, but if we could get it to 10%, that would be a pretty good step.

And if we can get cellulose ethanol production going, even better. Corn-based ethanol is only about a 3 to 1 gain right now. I've heard that if we can get mass production of cellulose-based ethanol, it would be something along the line of 35 to 1 gain. Brazil is a pretty good example with their sugar cane-based ethanol system.
Old May 31, 2008 | 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by DOOM Master
Totally false. Even flex fuel vehicles don't get 2/3 the mileage with E85, it's more like 1/4 (about 25%-35% decrease in fuel mileage is standard for E85 vs regular 87 octane fuel).
Um, 1/3 = %33.333. When you do and evaluation you take the conservitive number. I just reversed the mileage and added it to the price for total fuel range for GNRcamaro's location.

$2.95 * 33% = .9735 So, $2.95 + .97 = $3.92 for the same range

Last edited by soul strife; May 31, 2008 at 12:55 PM.
Old May 31, 2008 | 12:52 PM
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hahaha dude 25% would be a 1/4 33.33333......% would be 1/3



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