EDIT: The Dateline video in the E85 thread is required viewing before jumping in here

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12676374/


The year is 2025, the United States has weened itself completely from foreign oil. The domestic capacity that still operates provides raw material for the petrochemical industries and as a source of fuel for the older cars and jets that still burn "regular" gas. The never ending secular civil wars in the middle east barely register as news anymore, most children can't find Saudi, Iraq, or Iran on a map. The US has long since withdrawn it's assets from the region once it became energy independant, and now all of the wars, the politics, and the high regular gas prices are but a distant memory.

"Big Oil" is a shadow of its former self, a giant struggling to hang on to past glory and profits. American farms are the envy of the world, humming along w/ output so outpacing demand that the US is considered a major world energy EXPORTER, and reaps the profits from nations only too eager to buy up the raw materials for the fuel of the 21st century.

China, having benefited from it's under the table deal w/ Iran in the early part of the century (in which it provided political interference for Iran in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian oil) is starting to feel the pain, as Irans oil fields have run dry, and is desparate for a new source of fuel, as they are unable to grow the crops necessary to provide the basis for ethanol.


Now then, given the above fantasy scenario, what do you guys think of the following questions...
1. If the US goes all in w/ Ethanol, as Brazil has done, what happens to BIG OIL? Does it fight an unwinnable fight? Does it diversify and get in the corn business? Does it just shrink and only the strongest survive, like the computer companies have done?

2. Does the US really become a world leader in energy EXPORTS? The middle east of the 21st century? And if so, what does it do w/ the untold riches that pour into the country?

3. Do we run the risk of a BIG CORN conglomerate that can manipulate prices and stick it to consumers just as BIG OIL does today?

4. As the oil fields run dry, what of the nations that were previously oil rich, but now find themselves oil poor? Also, what of the nations which are unable to grow the kinds of crops necessary for ethanol production? Do they just import ethanol like they used to import oil/gasoline?


Anyone w/ other questions feel free to ask. After watching the Dateline piece, I just came up w/ a best case scenario, and it's interesting to think about what a change it would be if it came to pass.

 

Well, it seems that ethanol can be produced from many sources, and outside of the middle east, pretty much everyone can process it. The middle east will still be the main focus for fuel.

What about GM's involvment in the growing Chinese market? A hault there could mean a hault on sales for the GM cars. Do the GM cars there run on an imported ethanol fuel? Could China also supply its own Ethanol fuel to power its own cars, only further supporting a Communist Nation as a stand alone power?
This would be a GREAT plot for a James Bond movie.

 

The Oil companies certainly are a wild card.. I think they will fight it as long as they can. However, sooner or later we will reach a critical point when prices become a real burden and the government will stop dragging its feet.

So at that point, the Oil companies can continue to fight a loosing battle, which some might think they would as its a club of good old boys with very old money. Might be beneath them to get in bed with a bunch of dusty farmers.

Or they can find a place in the new market. I think thats likely, they know how to build refineries, they know how to transport fuel etc. I think the government would probably hand over a pretty big piece of the pie to them just so they could get it working.

I still don't think they would have the kind of control they do now though. If nothing else states would have a greater say in fuel production so that would put a pretty big damper on it. Also with the overhead of producing fuel it would be feasible to have a lot more companies supplying the country, which would also lower prices.

 

As the owners of the distribution infrastructure, they will still be the ones we buy our fuel from. They will indeed diversify into ethanol

Ahem ... Archer Daniels Midland

Let's hope they don't have nuclear weapons when they start fighting over the remaining scraps of oil.

 

Oil companies are really Energy companies, and I wouldn't be surprised if the winds of change would cause them to buy up ethanol production or become competitors in the same business.

 

Most of those places over there are hell holes, and what little comfort they have is provided soley by oil. If the dictators lost thier limitless cash flow I really think the countries would collapse on themselves.

I mean its one thing to convince people, "America is the cause of all your problems even though they are half way around the world, can't spell your name and are providing us with the money we do have by buying our oil."

But its a whole nother thing to convince them, "America is the cause of all your increasingly desperate problems because they stopped buying our oil even though they are half way around the world, and can't spell your name."



Something I forgot to add. I have read that a lot of the farmers in the midwest who own the huge tracts of land are in a lot of debt. The government gave them low interest loans to increase domestic production... Then the lands value dropped. Thier are probably several states Exxon could buy without going to the bank. Then they might be back in a position to ram us.

 

Unfortunately, in the next few months, gas prices will drop by about 75 cents per gallon, and everyone will forget about ethanol, energy independence and everything else.

The key to real action is sustained (ie., longer than afew months) high gasoline prices. Without that, the rest is all hyperbole.

 

Just as the oil Co's did a few years ago.....but it's a different world and I think more peole are realizing that we need to move away from ME oil....

 

A little more war will take care of that

 

Nothing wrong with war, its the natural mechanism by which human beings subconciously control population growth or how else would you explain the frequency of war?

 

I always liked the definition of war as the pursuit of politics by other means

 

A trip into the future... all the way to the year 2000!

IN THE YEAR 2000...

 

58% of US oil is imported, so only 58% of the US needs to go Ethanol to be 100% independent

Big Oil will diversify

I doubt it, the USA will suck down every gallon of Ethanol it can make. Plus we have already hit or are close to our peak oil production, so as oil production goes down and oil population goes up we will be looking for more and more energy.


No because to make Ethanol you don't need billions of dollars worth ore refineries to get the economies of scale right. You technically can make Ethanol at home.

War. They will blame the west for not helping them. The middle east will/does deal with there riches the same way M.C. Hammer did.

 

We can never totally wein ourselves of oil as it's used in too many other items besides fuel... Can you say Plastics???

What I see the US doing is Yes looking at Ethanol for fuel but looking at our own reserves to balance out the equation. I think if I remember right we have something like 2 trillion barrels worth of oil someplace in Colorado in the form of Oil Shale. I think we also have in the hundreds of billions of barrels of oil up in Anwar. If we wanted to isolate ourselves and become the energy producers instead of the consumers I think we could do it and I don't think oil companies would have to die either, rather they would just regroup and go a different direction...

 

My dad is a retired chemical engineer. I know ALLLLLLLL about plastic, more than I want to know in fact