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It's not the yen, it's the mileage - from the LA Times

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Old Jan 31, 2007 | 09:52 AM
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It's not the yen, it's the mileage - from the LA Times

To some extent, I'm hesitant to post this yet I think it's worth reading. "Yen manipulation" has often been mentioned as one of the "unfair trade practices" hurting Detroit automakers during arguments here about such things here on this board. So, regardless of feelings/opinions/what side of the issue one happens to be on, I think this is worth the read.

It's not the yen, it's the mileage

The Big Three finger overseas automakers for their woes, when they should be blaming themselves.

Originally Posted by Daniel Griswold, DANIEL GRISWOLD; LA Times Article
Daniel Grisworld is director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute and coauthor of the recent Cato paper, "Blowing Exhaust: Detroit's Woes Belie a Healthy U.S. Auto Market."

January 30, 2007

FORD MOTOR CO.'s announcement last week that it lost a record $12.75 billion in 2006 will tempt the new Democratic Congress to come to the rescue of Detroit's Big Three automakers. General Motors and DaimlerChrysler are also expected to announce SUV-sized losses for 2006, further revving the engine for congressional action.

Momentum is already building to make Japanese and other foreign-owned automakers the scapegoats for what ails Detroit. Just after the November elections, Big Three executives met with President Bush to complain about "unfair" competition from Japan.

Armed with a paper they had jointly released in September, the Big Three claim that the yen is undervalued by 15% to 25% because of massive intervention by the Bank of Japan. The paper concluded that "currency manipulation by Japan is a serious unfair trade practice impacting U.S. auto manufacturers today [that] provides an average subsidy of thousands of dollars for each and every car it exports to the United States."

The Big Three demand that the United States and other governments lean on Japan to stop all direct and indirect currency interventions. They call on the U.S. Treasury Department to declare Japan a "currency manipulator" and on Congress to "vigorously monitor implementation of the currency provisions of the 1988 Omnibus Trade Act" — provisions that can ultimately result in trade retaliation.

With Michigan Democrats John Dingell and Sander Levin now chairing the House Commerce Committee and the Ways and Means subcommittee on trade, respectively, the Big Three will find a sympathetic ear in the new Congress.

Despite its pleas, Detroit's woes are homegrown, not created abroad. A report from the Treasury Department last month concluded that no major trading partner of the United States, including Japan, met the technical definition of manipulating its currency for unfair trade advantage. Although the real value of the yen is at its lowest point in 20 years, the Treasury Department noted that the Bank of Japan has not intervened in foreign exchange markets since March 2004.

Even if Japanese authorities have tried to "talk down" the value of their currency, as the automakers claim, it has not done Japanese exporters any discernible good in the U.S. market. Japan's share of the total U.S. import market has dropped by half in the last decade, to only 8% in 2006. Our bilateral trade deficit with Japan also has been shrinking as a share of our total merchandise trade deficit, from more than one-third in 1995 to less than 11% in 2006.

Nor has the supposedly manipulated yen given Japanese automobile exporters an unfair advantage in the U.S. market. In fact, automotive imports from Japan, including both passenger vehicles and auto parts, have been steadily losing market share among total automotive imports. In 2005, total automotive imports from Japan made up 22% of the total U.S. auto import market, a decline from 23.7% in 2001, according to Commerce Department figures.

The Big Three's own paper acknowledges that the number of finished cars being imported from Japan — about 2 million annually — is the same as it was 20 years ago. And most of those imports are luxury models, for which a price break of a few thousand dollars would win little new market share.

Detroit's steady loss of domestic market share has not been driven by "subsidized" imports from Japan but by the success of foreign-owned automobile plants operating in the United States.

Since the 1980s, Japanese automakers such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Mazda have dramatically increased their production capacity in the United States, including facilities in Fremont, Long Beach and Ontario that employ more than 6,000 Californians. Today, two out of every three Japanese nameplate cars sold in the United States are made domestically rather than imported. Every one of the top 10 selling models of cars and light trucks in the U.S. are made in this country. Detroit's real competition is not factories in Japan but in California, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, Mississippi and South Carolina.

The Big Three have hurt themselves with overly generous union contracts, including lavish health and retirement benefits and restrictive work rules; an overemphasis on light trucks and sport utility vehicles that have lost their appeal amid higher gasoline prices; and a lack of exciting new models. No appreciation of the yen will save the Big Three from competition against nonunion plants turning out stylish, dependable and fuel-efficient cars in the American heartland.

Burdened by problems largely of their own making, the Big Three are desperately searching for somebody else to blame. In their campaign against the yen, they now hope to accomplish through political pressure what they have been unable to achieve in the showroom.
LINK: http://www.latimes.com/news/printedi...ck=1&cset=true

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Old Jan 31, 2007 | 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Article
The Big Three have hurt themselves with overly generous union contracts, including lavish health and retirement benefits and restrictive work rules; an overemphasis on light trucks and sport utility vehicles that have lost their appeal amid higher gasoline prices; and a lack of exciting new models. No appreciation of the yen will save the Big Three from competition against nonunion plants turning out stylish, dependable and fuel-efficient cars in the American heartland.
While I'm a 100% domestic supporter, there is a lot of truth in this statement. Basically I think it comes from not planning ahead (Cars vs Trucks, Massive Union Contracts when they had 30-40% Market Share) and possibly also driven by greedy Stockholders that are looking to turn a quick buck; not keep the company around for 100 years...
Old Jan 31, 2007 | 11:14 AM
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I love how the paper talks about how all 10 best sellers in the US are domestic, despite which company produces them...as if to claim everyone is equal. And yet, the amount of jobs Toyota, Nissan and Honda have added are far outweighed by the mass quantities of both blue and white collar jobs we've lost in the past 15 years.

But if I mention that, the original poster will get his nose out of joint, so instead I digress...

FWIW, the LA Times is the same paper Lutz & Co. called out for unfairly bashing GM's new launches. Add in the fact that LA County is primarily foreign in terms of automotive tastes, and maybe this is another example of a paper feeding the desires of its readership? I don't necessarily agree with the Big 3 regardless, but I think its funny the LA Times of all papers picked this one up
Old Jan 31, 2007 | 12:07 PM
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General Motors sells far more vehicles in the US than anyone else. Of the dozens of car companies that sell in the US, GM still commands about 25% of the market, which say alot.

BUT......

....little Honda actually sells as many cars as General Motors in the US, and Toyota sells more.

General Motors (by their own admission) had been ignoring the car market while investing heavily into trucks.

Ford decimated just about every car investment that wasn't in it's final development stages in the days immediately after Nasser left. Take away Mustang & Fusion, and there isn't much left regarding cars.

The high volume of LX sales still isn't enough to keep Chrysler from being a truck company that makes cars on the side.

It isn't hard to see where the problem is, especially when gasoline price jumps immediately results in GM, Ford suddenly losing wads of cash. Chrysler cheated by simply sales didn't dip, kept right on producing and strongarmed dealers to take up the slack.

I don't lay the blame on the Japanese this round. And there's barely enough UAW members left to blame them.
Old Jan 31, 2007 | 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Jason E
...And yet, the amount of jobs Toyota, Nissan and Honda have added are far outweighed by the mass quantities of both blue and white collar jobs we've lost in the past 15 years.
I would suggest that criticisms made about foreign nameplates not employing as many workers as GM/Ford is loosing is at best, misplaced and doesn't do anything to address the real issues.

I would hope that those who make such statements aren’t suggesting that a company should be required to hire/keep employees it no longer needs?

I would suggest that, at least in years past, some of the difference in the number of employees needed by the foreign nameplates compared to their domestic counterparts are full-time jobs that the GM/Ford have keep for years but which are done with independent contractors/outside sourcing in foreign nameplate facilities in the U.S - everything from cleaning staff and mailroom services to engineers, legal and financial services.

However, I believe you’ll find that the biggest difference in the number of employees between a foreign owned facility and a GM/Ford facility has far more to do with the age of the plant and the resulting inherent inefficiency of the domestic plants because of their age coupled with their restrictive union contracts.

If you look at the data, the typical foreign nameplate plant in the U.S. needs substantially less man-hours of labor to produce a car then a similar vehicle in a GM or Ford plant…the foreign nameplates simply don’t need as many people do get the same output….they are more efficient; partly because the plants are more modern and partly because of different manufacturing processes.

In recent years, as GM and Ford have built new/upgraded facilities, their efficiency has risen but they haven’t had the freedom to take full advantage of it…if thirty years ago, it took three men at a GM plant to do a particular job, the UAW still expects GM to have the same three positions on their rolls even if they only need one person to do the job today (can anyone say “job bank”).

This had to catch-up with the domestics eventually and now it has and they now face massive retirements/buy-outs/layoffs…I would suggest that if GM/Ford been allowed to shrink their workforce naturally, when/as it was appropriate, there would be no need for the massive downsizing/layoffs we are seeing now and GM/Ford, despite their other problems, would be far more healthy financially than they are now.

Capitalism demands that no business should be required to hire (or not be able to shed itself of) employees it doesn’t need and the customers should not be expected to pay for those unneeded employees through higher retail prices for those goods.

The bottom line is that GM/Ford simply no longer need as many employees as they once did and the loss of market share is not the main reason...even if the foreign nameplates suddenly "went away" GM/Ford would not need to expand their workforce to the levels they would have needed thirty years ago - anyone buying or planning to buy a new GM or Ford vehicle should be happy about that.

Last edited by Robert_Nashville; Jan 31, 2007 at 12:37 PM.
Old Jan 31, 2007 | 12:28 PM
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Bob you have become quite the "conversation" starter around here
Old Jan 31, 2007 | 12:39 PM
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All this tells me that it is way past time that GM (and Ford and DCX) get to market a "Greenie" Halo vehicle to start changing some perceptions about gas mileage.

Toyota is ramping up to build its most fuel-thirsty vehicle ever, and in its first year will sell 3-4 times as many of those Tundras as they will Priuses in the same year. But that is ignored, because of the Prius.

I am flabbergasted as to how GM has not yet offered up a real "look at me" fuel sipping vehicle. I'm not talking about the Aveo....I'm talking about an honest-to-goodness, EPA rated 40-50 MPG car. It's all about public perception. Toyota and Honda have mastered it, the domestics still haven't caught on yet.
Old Jan 31, 2007 | 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Z28Wilson
I am flabbergasted as to how GM has not yet offered up a real "look at me" fuel sipping vehicle. I'm not talking about the Aveo....I'm talking about an honest-to-goodness, EPA rated 40-50 MPG car. It's all about public perception. Toyota and Honda have mastered it, the domestics still haven't caught on yet.
Ding ding

Ding ding

Ding ding

....and add Ford and perhaps DCX to the "flabbergasted" list too.

Mr Bigshots at GM, Ford, and DCX....quit complaining about what others are doing. Quit asking for the Gov't to help you out. Quit blaming everybody and everything but yourselves. Build cars that people want more than the other guy's cars. When you do this, they will depart with their money. Of course, it will take time to build trust in quality and bring folks back to your product - Toyota & Honda didn't earn their reputation overnight, but government intervention won't get you there....at least not long-term.
Old Jan 31, 2007 | 04:47 PM
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I actually have been continually amazed at how competitive GM's products still are considering the enormous financial disadvantage ($2,000 to $5,000 per vehicle) they have to work from. They either have to take a $2,000 hit on profit margin, make the vehicle out of $2,000 cheaper materials, or price it $2,000 higher (not an option in todays market), just to be on the same playing field. And, no, I don't believe Yen manipulation has much if anything to do with it. The reasons have been spelled out by several others in this thread already...

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Old Jan 31, 2007 | 07:42 PM
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Great read Robert and I agree with alot of the article but like mentioned it has points that will be dissagreed.
GM Ford and DCX are in part to blame for this mess, I said it all along that they made a mistake. I think GM and DCX are correcting it somewhat. But Ford. I don't think they will be in good health in 5 years where GM and DCX should be..IF..
The thing is they are trying to pick themselves up while being kicked again and again. They are being invaded on there home turf where they had a stronghold before with the SUV's and trucks. Those held the fort. Now that the walls are breached they are clamoring to get the fortifications back. Hard to do when the enemy has had many years to build a war chest the size Toyota has. Honda and the rest are just riding the tide of how it is done. GM Ford and DCX it is hard to go into Japans market and never will be a fair trade of autos with them. Japan is more loyal to their own products conceived in Japan than outside purchases. This is one advantage Japanese Automakers have against U.S.. The trade policies are legally fair but they did work around them to create what they have now and nothing can be done. The Japanese have none of that here. The market already with a stable base and sold product is now just pumping into the country. In its basic form of nature a "virus". hitting its target and spreading. The U.S. buyer is none the wiser of what is going on and find buying a car built here is fine and does not pose a threat to many American towns businesses and way of life. They build these NEW factories in places where it has been researched and these towns grew up and thrived without an automaker and now will just be a boom and bonus for the town or city. Well, what about the town that grew up with the factory has millions that depend on it every day, those town that thrived and now have millions of people entwined with GM, Ford or DCX. Resized, reduced and then shutdown. Turning what was a city of millions of employed workers into a ghost town on the edge of disappearing off the map or worse. Poverty and homeless now are where skilled middle class labor once was. Yet Toyota is praised for making this great facility in the South where an economy already existed and now is going to boom. Creating NEW jobs and training NEW people how to make the same thing that the person in the ghost town of Detroit's suburb used to make. When your on the winning side you will not see this going on. You will not know of it. You will be in the glow of prosperity and the acts that go with it. Either her or abroad Japan will not be there to help the U.S. citizens it has put out. Like any good corporation Japanese companies are doing what it should: eliminate the competition. The problem is they are doing it 110% by being here bringing the war to the U.S. home turf and with GM, Ford and DCX doing what they did when they had the golden years of automating they did not change with what was needed. It is one other fault they had made for themselves. The U.S. auto industry in another part did this. The last thing is the marketing. If you look at Toyota they marketing is grand, blockbuster announcements every time in a 30 second commercial. Hitting the customer where they want to see it. Improvements, comparisons, longevity and MPG thrown at you that show the superiority to the competition. This marketing is the big swipe that has Ford GM and DCX at a disadvantage. The average customer loves the reliability of an old Corolla, the MPG of a Civic, the larger size parts on the Tundra. This is more embedded in the consumers mind than a semi full of GM cars flying through the air in Holiday commercials. The only commercials that were close with were the "Go Yellow" adds. These proved a point and sold the idea. Caught the eyes of customers. But yet its gone now? Why? these ads would change market perception. The way that people think about the cars made by GM, Ford and DCX. Comparison of great products is the only way out of media bias. There is still much to be said about that "myth". The truth to it is now that GM has products out that are actually competing and beating the competition we will see if the media turns the blind eye or accepts the fact that there is a choice and not just one way to look at it and bashing American cars is a hindsight tabloid garbage. Recalls by import companies that never reach TV spots, blurbs of U.S. automaker whoa's is the dirty laundry that is churned up. Yet both are the same yet different? Why? So yes there is a media bias in the way things are presented. It goes back to the "winning side" Ride the coattails of the winner and your going to sell more.
So yes it is not the Yen it is the dollar. Where is thrives in this country. Established town of auto workers, familles and history. The dollar that will pay for the products that were once made in the North now in brand new facilities in the South where it is used by import car makers to infuse towns that only see this as a profit and nothing "needed" In that profit that is where the Yen comes in. Yes, it is the mileage. How far they can go into middle America before something snaps. The repercussions of going to strong and snapping one of the big 2.5's back could be damaging to even Toyota and they know this. So the only ones we should blame is ourselves. In the short term everything works itself out but the long term is the cost of not seeing the big picture. "get ready to work for Toyota" is not a fantasy slogan in the far off future but a good possibility of things to come if we do not realize that if GM Ford and DCX do not do something to help themselves more than anything. We will be living in that world. It is sad to know that the auto industry that we "created" as we know it. The way we marketed the idea of the car and how it was to be built might not be produced by one of those founding companies here in the U.S.. The last Ford F-150 rolls off the line and the factory closes. It is put in an auto museum next to Fords Model T as the line is now gone. The first cars to be mass-produced the way the world creates them now and the last automobile made from them.
Both in black.
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Old Jan 31, 2007 | 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Caps94ZODG
......
So I should just suck it all up and buy a GM, Ford, or DCX?
Old Feb 1, 2007 | 04:19 AM
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The Big Three have hurt themselves with overly generous union contracts, including lavish health and retirement benefits and restrictive work rules; an overemphasis on light trucks and sport utility vehicles that have lost their appeal amid higher gasoline prices; and a lack of exciting new models. No appreciation of the yen will save the Big Three from competition against nonunion plants turning out stylish, dependable and fuel-efficient cars in the American heartland.
As much as I hate to agree, I think the above statement is correct. Even though GM, Ford, and DC have relatively fuel efficient powertrains, the fact that Detroit makes and sells a lot of trucks perhaps gives the impression that they make gas guzzlers even though Toyota, Nissan trucks fare no better. Perception is a big deal and its the reason why Detroit is still paying dearly for years of complacency and poor UAW negotiations while the Japanese are riding largely on a wave of perceived value and quality... although the gap has diminished.

Even though trucks still sell in great numbers, it might seem that Detroit is now seen as a great truck maker while the Asians are seen as better car builders?
Old Feb 1, 2007 | 05:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Bob Cosby
So I should just suck it all up and buy a GM, Ford, or DCX?

Only if you want to. But it wont be funny when the common car sales term,

" Get'em while they last!" Does not refer to the car but to the company.

We can go on and on about Yen, policies and what not but the thing that will really affect SALES is market and public perception. That is a tough sale when people to this day still think that the reputaion of a bulletproof honda or toyota cannot be touched. What thier parents said is good advice. "American cars suck" I say wrong but try telling that to the people that think that way. I like many have the same long laundry list of stories of people with that way of thinking and that perception, not that it is without its truths but how much has changed since them? The time when cars from the U.S. automaker is a match for anything in asia yet it is not cross shopped since it is looked down at, even if it is a better product. What will suck is when we dont have any strings to pull on our puppet in the global market of the future and the companies that do tell us what to buy and drive are not here.

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Old Feb 1, 2007 | 06:00 AM
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Originally Posted by guionM
....little Honda actually sells as many cars as General Motors in the US, and Toyota sells more.
Not sure where you're getting your numbers from ... or perhaps you're using an odd definition of "car", but in 2006

GM sold 1.7 million cars (plus 2.3 million trucks)
Honda sold 843,000 cars (plus 665,000 trucks) (includes Acura)
Toyota sold 1.5 million cars (plus 1 million trucks) (includes Lexus and Scion)

Toyota's getting close, but Honda's total vehicle sales don't even meet GM's car sales.
Old Feb 1, 2007 | 07:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Caps94ZODG
Only if you want to. But it wont be funny when the common car sales term,

" Get'em while they last!" Does not refer to the car but to the company.

We can go on and on about Yen, policies and what not but the thing that will really affect SALES is market and public perception. That is a tough sale when people to this day still think that the reputaion of a bulletproof honda or toyota cannot be touched. What thier parents said is good advice. "American cars suck" I say wrong but try telling that to the people that think that way. I like many have the same long laundry list of stories of people with that way of thinking and that perception, not that it is without its truths but how much has changed since them? The time when cars from the U.S. automaker is a match for anything in asia yet it is not cross shopped since it is looked down at, even if it is a better product. What will suck is when we dont have any strings to pull on our puppet in the global market of the future and the companies that do tell us what to buy and drive are not here.
Ok, but again, it all comes down to making something that the majority of people want to buy. That will require a long-term committment to quality in order to change the perceptions that you discuss (and I agree with).

Regardless though....it looks pretty clear that the domination of the global auto market by Detriot is fast fading, and likely will never return.

Bob



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