GM's Cash Flow Outlook for 2007
GM's Cash Flow Outlook for 2007
From the Wall Street Journal
By JOHN D. STOLL - January 12, 2007
By JOHN D. STOLL - January 12, 2007
General Motors Corp. expects its cash flow to remain negative this year even though it has taken out billions of dollars in fixed costs and is hitting the peak of its product cycle.
At a conference for analysts, Chief Financial Officer Frederick "Fritz" Henderson said GM's cash flow would be improved compared with 2006, but he acknowledged the company would again burn cash for another year, in part because of increased capital spending. GM's cash flow, he said, is "not anywhere near an adequate position."
The forecast of negative cash flow means the big auto maker will continue to face serious financial pressures for at least an additional 12 months as it works to turn around its unprofitable North American auto operations. GM faces declining market share and intensifying competition, as well as high costs.
Nevertheless, GM executives said the company's turnaround is moving forward. "We plan to make another significant step on these business metrics in 2007," Chief Executive Rick Wagoner told analysts during his presentation.
Mr. Henderson declined to forecast a precise figure for cash flow in 2007. He said GM expects earnings to improve in 2007 but didn't offer a more detailed outlook. GM stopped giving earnings guidance in 2005 when it began racking up big quarterly losses.
In an interview earlier this week, he said GM will give more guidance on future cash flow sometime later this year. The auto maker may sell some assets throughout the year to further pad liquidity, Mr. Henderson added.
For the first three quarters of 2006, GM reported a net loss of $3 billion and a cash outflow of $4.2 billion.
In statements and slides for the conference, GM said total revenue will increase because of strength in emerging markets such as China and Russia, and key vehicle launches in the U.S. The company has just launched a redesigned Chevrolet Silverado pickup, its top-selling vehicle, and has several other highly anticipated vehicles coming in 2007. These include three new seven-passenger "crossovers" and a new Chevy Malibu sedan.
One reason for the negative cash flow is that GM plans to increase its world-wide capital spending to a range of $8.5 billion to $9 billion in both 2007 and 2008, versus less than $8 billion in both 2005 and 2006, as it redoubles its commitment to product development. The auto maker fell short of the $8.7 billion in capital expenditures it expected in 2006.
Mr. Henderson said the capital-expenditure increase is evidence the company wants to keep funding new products even after it floods its lineup with updated cars and trucks in 2007. "We're not backing off, we're going to step on the gas," he said.
GM is counting on the new models to enable it to edge prices a bit higher and reduce the need for rebates and other sales incentives, which eat into its profit margins. It also again plans to reduce sales to rental-car companies, a practice that over the long run lowers the resale value of its cars and trucks.
Mr. Henderson said GM expects industry-wide vehicle sales to be flat in North America in 2007, with weakness in the first half of the year being offset by a stronger second half.
The company said it is keeping a close eye on raw material costs and will work to offset the rising cost of steel and other commodities by implementing cost cuts.
It also plans to address high health-care and retiree-related costs in 2007, with particular emphasis on the company's negotiations with the United Auto Workers, which start in July ahead of the current contract's expiration in September.
GM North America Chief Troy Clarke said the company doesn't plan to see significant financial savings from the deal in 2007 because negotiations take place late in the year. After the new pact is negotiated, UAW members must ratify the agreement, and a court will likely need to approve it.
In 2006, GM shed 34,000 union workers from its payroll, part of a savings effort that is supposed to lower fixed costs by $9 billion in 2007. Those job cuts, Mr. Clarke said, leave GM North America "positioned for success."
At a conference for analysts, Chief Financial Officer Frederick "Fritz" Henderson said GM's cash flow would be improved compared with 2006, but he acknowledged the company would again burn cash for another year, in part because of increased capital spending. GM's cash flow, he said, is "not anywhere near an adequate position."
The forecast of negative cash flow means the big auto maker will continue to face serious financial pressures for at least an additional 12 months as it works to turn around its unprofitable North American auto operations. GM faces declining market share and intensifying competition, as well as high costs.
Nevertheless, GM executives said the company's turnaround is moving forward. "We plan to make another significant step on these business metrics in 2007," Chief Executive Rick Wagoner told analysts during his presentation.
Mr. Henderson declined to forecast a precise figure for cash flow in 2007. He said GM expects earnings to improve in 2007 but didn't offer a more detailed outlook. GM stopped giving earnings guidance in 2005 when it began racking up big quarterly losses.
In an interview earlier this week, he said GM will give more guidance on future cash flow sometime later this year. The auto maker may sell some assets throughout the year to further pad liquidity, Mr. Henderson added.
For the first three quarters of 2006, GM reported a net loss of $3 billion and a cash outflow of $4.2 billion.
In statements and slides for the conference, GM said total revenue will increase because of strength in emerging markets such as China and Russia, and key vehicle launches in the U.S. The company has just launched a redesigned Chevrolet Silverado pickup, its top-selling vehicle, and has several other highly anticipated vehicles coming in 2007. These include three new seven-passenger "crossovers" and a new Chevy Malibu sedan.
One reason for the negative cash flow is that GM plans to increase its world-wide capital spending to a range of $8.5 billion to $9 billion in both 2007 and 2008, versus less than $8 billion in both 2005 and 2006, as it redoubles its commitment to product development. The auto maker fell short of the $8.7 billion in capital expenditures it expected in 2006.
Mr. Henderson said the capital-expenditure increase is evidence the company wants to keep funding new products even after it floods its lineup with updated cars and trucks in 2007. "We're not backing off, we're going to step on the gas," he said.
GM is counting on the new models to enable it to edge prices a bit higher and reduce the need for rebates and other sales incentives, which eat into its profit margins. It also again plans to reduce sales to rental-car companies, a practice that over the long run lowers the resale value of its cars and trucks.
Mr. Henderson said GM expects industry-wide vehicle sales to be flat in North America in 2007, with weakness in the first half of the year being offset by a stronger second half.
The company said it is keeping a close eye on raw material costs and will work to offset the rising cost of steel and other commodities by implementing cost cuts.
It also plans to address high health-care and retiree-related costs in 2007, with particular emphasis on the company's negotiations with the United Auto Workers, which start in July ahead of the current contract's expiration in September.
GM North America Chief Troy Clarke said the company doesn't plan to see significant financial savings from the deal in 2007 because negotiations take place late in the year. After the new pact is negotiated, UAW members must ratify the agreement, and a court will likely need to approve it.
In 2006, GM shed 34,000 union workers from its payroll, part of a savings effort that is supposed to lower fixed costs by $9 billion in 2007. Those job cuts, Mr. Clarke said, leave GM North America "positioned for success."
The major reason is a deal should finally be reached with Delphi. So, GM must still keep the billions earmarked for Delphi....set aside for Delphi. Steve Miller wants a deal with GM and the UAW before September.
So, Q2 of '07 should really show us how well GM's turnaround is progressing towards profitability.
Once the UAW talks are done and the Delphi deal is done, we'll get a true look at the turnaround.
So, Q2 of '07 should really show us how well GM's turnaround is progressing towards profitability.
Once the UAW talks are done and the Delphi deal is done, we'll get a true look at the turnaround.
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