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GM Edges Closer to Bankrupty - the ultimate risk.

Old Nov 13, 2005 | 06:29 PM
  #31  
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Re: GM Edges Closer to Bankrupty - the ultimate risk.

Originally Posted by number77
Oh, I didn't know its been 4 years. I was just generalizing on how long it can take a car to go from idea to showroom.
Yep. Rick Wagoner became CEO in 2001.

Bob Lutz took over product in September 2001.

4 years already.


Boy, time flies!

Originally Posted by 91_z28_4me
What program could this have been? Why would Red have known and been involved with it back in 2000? I think we know the answers to these questions.
He does auto shows, & he's also Chevrolet.

He KNOWS this stuff.... beyond just being his job.

Originally Posted by mastrdrver
As I see it, there is one thing that separates GM from the postion Chrysler has been in more then once, desire. The people that were at Chrysler when the company was suppose, and one time did, you BK poured their life into it. They lived and died with Chrysler. This is just something I don't see with GM. There just doesn't seem to be any desire outside of Lutz, but he has been there before.
I'd add Welburn, Reuss, and maybe LaNeve as devoted GM types.

Last edited by guionM; Nov 13, 2005 at 06:35 PM.
Old Nov 13, 2005 | 07:54 PM
  #32  
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Re: GM Edges Closer to Bankrupty - the ultimate risk.

Originally Posted by guionM
I'd add Welburn, Reuss, and maybe LaNeve as devoted GM types.
Just from talking to some ex Chrysler people, it seemed that everyone from top to bottom did everything they could to keep the company from failing. With GM, it seems like some people are willing to sit and wait, from the way some on this board talk. While I'm sure most in GM would die for the company before it goes BK, there seem to be some in the high up willing to settle for less. If what buickman said about a few on the board are from other companies that went bellyup, they are willing to let GM fail bcuz they have been through it before and THEY have gone on with THEIR professional life. They don't care about the company they just care that they can get another job and get their money.
Old Nov 13, 2005 | 09:03 PM
  #33  
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Re: GM Edges Closer to Bankrupty - the ultimate risk.

Originally Posted by guionM
I'd like to add to your list about things running through my

Where's Peter Hanenberger when you REALLY need him.

Really shows you what strong leadership can do.....my biggest fear when Hanenberger retired was that Holden would be pushed into the GM N/A methodology.
Old Nov 14, 2005 | 03:11 PM
  #34  
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Re: GM Edges Closer to Bankrupty - the ultimate risk.

This is a good article that my friend sent me in regards to the B-word and GM.....makes for a good read, not sure how accurate it is though.

The B Word
The Detroit Free Press, the liberal leaning sister paper of the Detroit News, published a page 1 story about GM today with the word "bankruptcy" in the title.

GM is in danger, but I believe that this is premature, and a classic case of journalistic piling-on. One piece of evidence cited for GM's possible bankruptcy was the drastically diminished stock price--but in fact, the value of the stock has nothing to do with GM's profitability. Wall Street could sell GM down to $1 a share, it would not cause bankruptcy. No matter how many times The Freep, Wall Street analysts, or Robert Farrago warn of bankruptcy, it does not make it any closer.

Remember that GM is sitting on a huge pile of cash, about $20,000,000,000. Add to that the assets that GM could sell quickly, and you have about $45,000,o00,000. Even if GM lost $5 billion a year, it would take 4-10 years to become insolvent. And that $5 billion a year includes product development costs. All GM has to do is a little better than break-even, and it can operate nearly indefinitely. The stock analysts don't like that, since they are mostly focused on earnings growth.

GM's (and Ford's) job is to figure out how to be profitable businesses without gaining market share. This can be done. They need to reduce legacy costs by engaging the UAW, reduce product costs through platform sharing, and gain pricing power by building sexy cars. GM will never again have 60% of the U.S. market. And I agree with many pundits that huge changes at GM are necessary. But that doesn't mean GM is going away, either.

As the British conservative-writer-with-the-funny-name Theodore Dalyrimple wrote, "apocalypses have a habit of not happening". For all of its apparent mis-steps, a company as large as GM is not run by idiots. Guys like Rick "whipping boy" Wagoner and Bob "Uncle" Lutz did not get to the top of a multi-billion dollar company by being stupid. GM may change, but GM is not going away.
Old Nov 14, 2005 | 03:46 PM
  #35  
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Re: GM Edges Closer to Bankrupty - the ultimate risk.

My next car is going to be a GM, providing they stick around and they maintain a steady quality level.
Old Nov 14, 2005 | 04:09 PM
  #36  
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Re: GM Edges Closer to Bankrupty - the ultimate risk.

Originally Posted by mr00jimbo
My next car is going to be a GM, providing they stick around and they maintain a steady quality level.
Every car I have paid for has been GM, they might have been old but they were all GMs. That is something that will not change. What will change is that when I can I will buy new.
Old Nov 14, 2005 | 04:58 PM
  #37  
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Re: GM Edges Closer to Bankrupty - the ultimate risk.

As many on here have said, GM is not in iminent danger of declaring bankruptcy. Here's an article from a source with somewhat better financial credentials than the Detroit Free Press

http://www.forbes.com/2005/11/14/gm-...apbox_inl.html


MIAMI - General Motors recently said that it would have to restate its 2001 earnings by as much as $400 million, spurring fresh downgrades and prompting some analysts to raise the probability that the automaker will declare bankruptcy. The talk about a GM bankruptcy makes for market attention but lacks real substance. Here are a few of the reasons why this is so.

Reason No. 1: You have to be eligible to declare bankruptcy; you can’t just decide it would be strategically beneficial to do so. General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ), with $19 billion in cash and a book value of $40 billion, hardly meets that test now or for a number of years.

Reason No. 2: GM doesn’t need a bankruptcy threat to win concessions from its unions. It has Delphi (nyse: DPH - news - people ) to do that for them. When the Delphi bankruptcy is concluded, the unions will know what they can expect to win from GM if they force it to use the bankruptcy route. Chances are, they will settle for something close to the Delphi concessions because they have even more to lose with GM.

Reason No. 3: GM as a business is a very valuable franchise. Before it goes into bankruptcy, it would likely reach a merger agreement with a foreign car manufacturer much as Chrysler did seven years ago when it “merged” with Daimler to form DaimlerChrysler (nyse: DCX - news - people ).

Reason No. 4: Unlike the airlines, GM and its unions have it within their power to fix the problems. There are a variety of ways this can be done short of bankruptcy. The main battle may well be within the United Auto Workers, pitting young workers against those who are either retired or about to retire.

Reason No. 5: A bankruptcy filing would be most devastating to GM shareholders. It is the duty of the board of directors and management to do everything to prevent that from happening. While this principal seems to have been ignored in several recent bankruptcies, it seems less likely to happen here. Besides, we have Kirk Kerkorian watching to make sure this doesn’t happen. I’d be more worried if he had bought GM debt instead of stock.
Old Nov 20, 2005 | 10:09 AM
  #38  
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Re: GM Edges Closer to Bankrupty - the ultimate risk.

Originally Posted by R377
As many on here have said, GM is not in iminent danger of declaring bankruptcy. Here's an article from a source with somewhat better financial credentials than the Detroit Free Press

http://www.forbes.com/2005/11/14/gm-...apbox_inl.html
The actual declaration of bankruptcy would not mean GM is out of business.
But MORE importantly, I don't fear BANKRUPTCY as much as I do TAKEOVER.

In the post above yours, there is a quote ,"Wall Street could sell GM down to $1 a share, it would not cause bankruptcy. "
This is 100% correct, because the stock price does not affect profitability, and the company itself is required to file for bankruptcy protection. However, if GM stock went to $1/share, there would be several individuals, and many companies, who could single-handedly buy controlling interest in GM, and proceed to run it the way they want to. THAT is more the issue to me, because I don't think that many people with that much money really care about GM's history, brand loyalty, or the customer waiting for a 5th gen... they are after MORE MONEY, PERIOD. GM and all of it's subsidiaries become articles for sale to the highest bidder at a clearinghouse-type auction. Some will be looted for their resources and assets, some will be redirected to produce for Ford, Chrysler, or Toyota, and some could likely remain unchanged (except for having new owners). But it's a risky proposition at best, and for sure, GM will not be as we know it today.

Another thought... I have seen many posts that refer back to Chrysler in the 1980's and Iacocca's appointment as CEO. One thing that has NOT been mentioned in any of these posts is that Chrysler DID file bankruptcy. They worked with the government to have debt either reduced to interest-free, or forgiven all together, they rescheduled debt payments and got guarantees by the government to pay their suppliers. The government actually "bailed them out" with interest-free loans and low-interest loans that were termed for years. To their credit and Iacocca's, Chrysler did repay all the debt to the government, and even repayed some creditors that forgave their initial debt (meaning they didn't have to). That was a huge deal back then, and there was a lot of harsh discussion about taxpayer dollars bailing out a corporation - but in the end it appears to have been the right thing to do - largely in part to Iacocca's business ethics and commitment to doing what was right instead of taking the money and running with it.
I propose that the same would be done in GM's case if they asked the government for the help. If nothing else, based on the success demonstrated by helping Chrysler... it shows that it can work.

So given the two situations of bankruptcy and takeover, I think it is clear to see that bankruptcy could in fact be the lesser of the two evils here, and it in no way means that GM is "out of business" just because they file for debt relief bankruptcy. If Kirk and the boys buy up all the outstanding shares and take over the business, THEN you have something to worry about. THAT is what could spell the end of GM as we know it.

Hope you guys can see the difference between the two... that is exactly why I posted the thread indicating my recent change in concern for GM.
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