Crude oil hits new high
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Joined: Feb 1999
Posts: 2,947
From: Springfield,OH. U.S.A.
I think they're looking for a threshold price...we should hold some boycott days when prices jump...if we all could stick together.
It's a shame noone holds many peaceful demonstrations anymore.
It seems we're either heading for a Depression or more War.
It's a shame noone holds many peaceful demonstrations anymore.
It seems we're either heading for a Depression or more War.
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Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 2,400
From: Michigan's left coast
One-day boycotts are BS... it's the political equivalent of a crash diet. Fuel prices likely won't come down until there's a sustained drop in demand.
Thread Starter
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Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 976
From: SE MI
The supply of oil is highest it has been in 14 years and the price still goes up. With the news of higher crude oil futures prices, the gas stations raise their prices the same day, even though the higher priced crude is months away from being the final product in their underground tanks.
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Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 10,285
From: Albany, NY
The supply of oil is highest it has been in 14 years and the price still goes up. With the news of higher crude oil futures prices, the gas stations raise their prices the same day, even though the higher priced crude is months away from being the final product in their underground tanks.
I'm sure it will come May when summer driving season starts.
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 114
From: Sydney, Australia
this isn't actually demand driven. there have been demand increases, but nothing like the leap in per barrel prices over the same period.
much of this is being driven by speculators looking for safe places to park money when share markets become volatile - the same rationale as people parking money in gold when the world looks dodgy.
they leap on any perceived crisis or even concern in any production area and throw more money in there, until you have a self-perpetuating surge that has little relationship with underlying demand.
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Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 13,713
From: The Golden State
Exactly!!!
Running up deficits and mindless tax cutting and a "starving the beast" mentality is self destructive. Spending isn't going to be cut, and someone is going to have to pay the bill. China is floating us the difference, collecting intrest and gaining influence for favorable policies and our technologies & manufacturing base. That money pit called Iraq, sucking over 9 billion dollars of YOUR money every month. When the value of your currency is falling, the most damaging thing you can do to that currency is make it even cheaper to get by cutting intrest rates.
Somethings going to give very soon.
BTW: I understand Australia has increased their intrest rates?
Last edited by guionM; Mar 7, 2008 at 01:02 PM.
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Joined: Jan 1999
Posts: 1,547
From: Panhandle of West Virginia
I found this interesting as well. Keep in mind oil hit another record at $106.54 today:
I know a few independent truckers who are getting ready to go out of business because of fuel prices.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Five months ago many economists said high oil prices wouldn't hurt the economy - now they're choking on their words.
Back in October, when oil prices were near $90 a barrel and the economy was still humming along economists said high oil prices shouldn't cut into economic growth. The economy used oil more efficiently than it did in the 1970s, and spending on gas was just a small percent of people's budget, the experts said.
Fast forward to March and you've got a sputtering economy, and economists saying $105 oil deserves a big part of the blame.
Even the White House is beginning to sound more pessimistic, predicting Friday that the the economy could contract.
"You have a very significant restraint on consumer spending," said Chris Lafakis, an associate economist at Moody's Economy.com, an economic consultancy. "It acts as a tax would."
Lafakis said consumers spend an extra $5 billion each year for each $1 increase in the price of crude.
When economists were predicting that oil wouldn't negatively impact the economy, they based their assertion on a price of about $80 a barrel.
But if oil stays at $100 a barrel for the next 12 months, consumers will have shelled out an extra $100 billion on oil by next year. That's an extra $100 billion not being spent at the mall, mega-mart or multiplex.
"The entire stimulus package could be drained by higher energy costs," Lafakis said, referring to the $120 billion lawmakers will refund to taxpayers in an effort to keep the economy out of recession. "That has the potential to turn a mild recession into something more dark."
Of course, high oil prices are not the only thing weighing on consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity. Declining home values mean people can't access cash through a home equity loan or profit from higher sale prices. In addition, the economy is shedding jobs, and unemployed people tend to spend less money.
"On its own, $100 oil wouldn't pull the economy into recession," said Beth Ann Bovino, a senior economist at Standard and Poor's. "But given the other factors, it's just another shoe to drop."
Both Bovino and Lafakis have similar predictions for the economy - a mild recession lasting the first and second quarters of 2008, then a modest recovery beginning in the second half of this year.
However, if oil goes to $115 or $120 a barrel - certainly not an outlandish thought given that crude prices have nearly doubled over the last 12 months - then those bets may be off.
Bovino said $115 oil, along with worsening conditions in the credit and foreign investment market, could be enough to keep the economy in recession through the first part of 2009.
"It would sure give the pessimistic forecast more credibility," she said.
Back in October, when oil prices were near $90 a barrel and the economy was still humming along economists said high oil prices shouldn't cut into economic growth. The economy used oil more efficiently than it did in the 1970s, and spending on gas was just a small percent of people's budget, the experts said.
Fast forward to March and you've got a sputtering economy, and economists saying $105 oil deserves a big part of the blame.
Even the White House is beginning to sound more pessimistic, predicting Friday that the the economy could contract.
"You have a very significant restraint on consumer spending," said Chris Lafakis, an associate economist at Moody's Economy.com, an economic consultancy. "It acts as a tax would."
Lafakis said consumers spend an extra $5 billion each year for each $1 increase in the price of crude.
When economists were predicting that oil wouldn't negatively impact the economy, they based their assertion on a price of about $80 a barrel.
But if oil stays at $100 a barrel for the next 12 months, consumers will have shelled out an extra $100 billion on oil by next year. That's an extra $100 billion not being spent at the mall, mega-mart or multiplex.
"The entire stimulus package could be drained by higher energy costs," Lafakis said, referring to the $120 billion lawmakers will refund to taxpayers in an effort to keep the economy out of recession. "That has the potential to turn a mild recession into something more dark."
Of course, high oil prices are not the only thing weighing on consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity. Declining home values mean people can't access cash through a home equity loan or profit from higher sale prices. In addition, the economy is shedding jobs, and unemployed people tend to spend less money.
"On its own, $100 oil wouldn't pull the economy into recession," said Beth Ann Bovino, a senior economist at Standard and Poor's. "But given the other factors, it's just another shoe to drop."
Both Bovino and Lafakis have similar predictions for the economy - a mild recession lasting the first and second quarters of 2008, then a modest recovery beginning in the second half of this year.
However, if oil goes to $115 or $120 a barrel - certainly not an outlandish thought given that crude prices have nearly doubled over the last 12 months - then those bets may be off.
Bovino said $115 oil, along with worsening conditions in the credit and foreign investment market, could be enough to keep the economy in recession through the first part of 2009.
"It would sure give the pessimistic forecast more credibility," she said.
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Joined: Feb 1999
Posts: 2,947
From: Springfield,OH. U.S.A.
Originally Posted by Eric Bryant :
One-day boycotts are BS... it's the political equivalent of a crash diet. Fuel prices likely won't come down until there's a sustained drop in demand.
One-day boycotts are BS... it's the political equivalent of a crash diet. Fuel prices likely won't come down until there's a sustained drop in demand.
.The increases lately seem to be responding to some "butterfly effect" and not supply vs demand...
Last edited by 90rocz; Mar 8, 2008 at 12:12 AM.
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Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,123
From: Melbourne, Australia
this isn't actually demand driven. there have been demand increases, but nothing like the leap in per barrel prices over the same period.
much of this is being driven by speculators looking for safe places to park money when share markets become volatile - the same rationale as people parking money in gold when the world looks dodgy.
they leap on any perceived crisis or even concern in any production area and throw more money in there, until you have a self-perpetuating surge that has little relationship with underlying demand.
much of this is being driven by speculators looking for safe places to park money when share markets become volatile - the same rationale as people parking money in gold when the world looks dodgy.
they leap on any perceived crisis or even concern in any production area and throw more money in there, until you have a self-perpetuating surge that has little relationship with underlying demand.
I hope it's not a case of China, India using it up because the scenario will only get worse... on an almost daily basis.
PS I still believe the US is keeping all the Iraqi oil for itself... for a rainy day. Probably will see a war on Iran if the oil supply situation gets any worse.
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 2,977
From: SeVa
Heh, if the Feds cut out all the vote buying/social engine... I mean deductions in the current tax code, that would increase revenues by nearly one trillion dollars wihtout resorting to a hefty increase in taxes, not to mention the inherent ineffciency of trying to collect taxes when it consists of about 67,000 pages of code and the folks who administer it are wrong about 40% of the time.
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Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 2,400
From: Michigan's left coast
If everyone just takes a day or two off from buying gas, lets the gag gauge dip a bit deeper, and then rushes to the station to top 'er off again at the end of the "boycott", there won't be any effect - psychological or otherwise. It'd take a real, sustained reduction in consumption - a change in habits, in other words - for there to be any real effect.
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Joined: Feb 1999
Posts: 2,947
From: Springfield,OH. U.S.A.
Originally Posted by Eric Bryant:
If everyone just takes a day or two off from buying gas, lets the gag gauge dip a bit deeper, and then rushes to the station to top 'er off again at the end of the "boycott", there won't be any effect - psychological or otherwise. It'd take a real, sustained reduction in consumption - a change in habits, in other words - for there to be any real effect.
If everyone just takes a day or two off from buying gas, lets the gag gauge dip a bit deeper, and then rushes to the station to top 'er off again at the end of the "boycott", there won't be any effect - psychological or otherwise. It'd take a real, sustained reduction in consumption - a change in habits, in other words - for there to be any real effect.
But I feel too that if enough people just stayed home on a certain day or weekend, w/o toping off every vehicle they own and filling all their cans, it would hurt daily sales, probably in billions, and would get someones attention.
I personally don't buy on high days whenever possible, and only buy enough to get by when not.
Last edited by 90rocz; Mar 9, 2008 at 11:42 PM.
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Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 3,748
From: New England
I understand what you're saying and agree, for the long term, your way is better.
But I feel too that if enough people just stayed home on a certain day or weekend, w/o toping off every vehicle they own and filling all their cans, it would hurt daily sales, probably in billions, and would get someones attention.
I personally don't buy on high days whenever possible, and only buy enough to get by when not.
But I feel too that if enough people just stayed home on a certain day or weekend, w/o toping off every vehicle they own and filling all their cans, it would hurt daily sales, probably in billions, and would get someones attention.
I personally don't buy on high days whenever possible, and only buy enough to get by when not.
Basically its a need that we have in our economy that is part of our daily life.
The gas price problem is like everyone in the U.S. saying
"God, were going to hold our breath untill we get cleaner air, till then were not going to breath!"
Well someones going to take a breath and its not going to be long after we were supposed to stop.
Same with gas. Just something thats part of a daily need that is on a cycle that every time we need it we have to buy it reguardless if its on a Sunday or a Monday.
No the best way to fix the problem is get indipendant from OPEC. We have an Oil reserve we have been sittin on in the U.S. in that is as large as Saudi Arabia's oil reserve.
https://www.camaroz28.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=587306
If we started just drilling for that and refining home grow oil instead of buying the millions each day from other countries. The price would go down. Not to mention turn this economy around since we would be self dependant on one of the biggest needs this country has.
Imagine OPEC not yanking our crank every time they felt like it on gas prices? Imagine oil being 50 dollars a barrel again? Now imagine that combines wtih E85 and other hybrid systems. Yea I can but will Exxon and Shell let it happen? That is the problem. Take the profit away and they wil not change.