Z284ever

GM is late to the Pony Party - again.

Detroit. Timing is everything, but the concept of time has its own peculiar cadence in the automobile business. After all, this is an industry that spends its entire life in a professional Twilight Zone-like haze called "lead time" - working on products that are two, three and even four years from introduction. An industry that regularly launches new vehicles to market - while their replacements are only months from being "locked-in" to the final engineering and design phases. And, as if all of that weren't strange enough, it's an industry that thinks nothing of introducing products that are tagged with the following calendar year, nine months before the current model year is scheduled to run out. Timing in the auto business can make or break a product or even make or break an entire company, depending on the circumstances. And right now, the Ford Motor Company is on the very profitable side of fortuitous timing.

The new-generation Mustang is a flat-out "hit" by any conceivable measure. It's the right car, at the right time for the market - and it's the right car at the right time for Ford. How crucial is the Mustang's success to Ford right now? It's literally carrying the entire company on its back.

But as much as timing plays an integral role in the car biz, there's another factor that can dominate the business too - and that's the feverish notion that if one company defines a "hit" - the "copycats" won't be too far behind. Nothing grates on car companies more than watching a competitor steal thunder with an overnight success. It drives them crazy, as a matter of fact. Such was the case with the original Mustang introduction back on April 17, 1964 - to this date the most successful car launch in U.S. automotive history. Ford created a new segment from out of the blue, and they were off to the races with it. GM was caught flat-footed with the Mustang's success and came up with their "me too" version of the "pony" car almost three years later - the '67 Chevrolet Camaro - and added the Pontiac Firebird after that. And then Chrysler joined in with their own versions of the "pony" car - the Plymouth Barracuda and the Dodge Challenger.

It looks like the importance of timing is surfacing again in the auto biz, as history, apparently, is repeating itself. Now that Ford has a huge hit with their new-generation Mustang, the "late-to-the-party" contingent is showing up. Chrysler is said to be working on a shortened-wheelbase Coupe version of its next-generation "LX" rear-wheel-drive platform - to be called the Challenger - but it won't make its debut until 2008. This was after the company slammed its critics (me included) when they introduced the new-generation Charger as a four-door sedan, declaring the Coupe market dead in the water in the U.S. and suggesting that "nobody buys Coupes anymore." My, how things have changed. A red-hot Mustang seems to have brought clarity to Chrysler's thinking of late. For all of Chrysler's posturing as the car company that creates "segment-busting" products, they miss more often than they hit. And they missed the Mustang phenomenon, big time. But as easily as Chrysler's miscalculation can be explained (they're so permanently lost in the "daze" of their HEMI/300C success out in Auburn Hills that they're having difficulty functioning), GM's late reaction (or inaction) is inexcusable.

Now that Ford is selling upwards of 18,000 Mustangs per month, the rumblings are coming from within GM that there will be a next-generation Camaro one day too. But questions linger, as in why did it take GM to see the efficacy of a properly rendered Mustang in order to understand that they needed the Camaro? Why did it take Ford's belief in its franchise car - the Mustang - to teach GM that they had something special to believe in with the heritage and the history of the Camaro?

The ultimate question is this: Why is GM always reacting instead of acting?

It takes no time at all to count the number of vehicles that GM has pioneered since the '50s that were not responses to a competitor's product, but rather were the result of reaching deep within and coming up with a product idea that demonstrated confidence and genuine vision. The Corvette. The Pontiac GTO. The original Buick Riviera. The front-wheel-drive Olds Toronado and Eldorado come to mind, to name a few.

The reason given for GM letting the Camaro die in 2002 was ostensibly because of budget considerations, but insiders know the real problem was that the "old-think" GM was still alive and well - and that the enthusiast faction within GM was still being suppressed and throttled from envisioning great cars at every turn. A new Camaro could have and should have been making its debut this coming fall, but now GM will be lucky if they can be back in the market with one by the 2008 time frame.

GM should be embarrassed that they got caught flat-footed by the Mustang. In this era when great product can make or break car companies, a hot Camaro would have done wonders for GM and Chevrolet. At the end of the day, the Camaro name was and still is one of the bright lights in the GM/Chevrolet portfolio and one of the most recognized American car brand names out there - one with a tremendous amount of brand equity and residual goodwill in the marketplace. The original Camaro, though a "me too" entry to the segment Ford invented, was always the most worthy competitor to the Mustang, and the fact that GM walked away from it, even for a model year, is unforgivable.

Don't be surprised to see a future Camaro concept unveiled at the Detroit Auto Show next January. But in the meantime, every month that the Mustang continues to pile up double-digit sales, it should be a painful reminder to GM and Chevrolet executives that when you have the potential for a hit product sitting right under your noses, you don't let it languish or flounder - or die. Instead, you nurture it, hone it and make it better than ever.

Because on top of all of the other factors looming over this industry right now - including the brutal competition, the fragmenting of segments, the health care and legacy costs, etc., etc. - playing catch-up in this business is a bitch.

Thanks for listening, see you next Wednesday.

Darth Xed

A good read.

Hard to argue with any of it.

dream '94 Z28

Pretty much sums up what we've all felt and said over the past months. IF we see a Camaro concept next year, following recent trends in concept cars away from the 'what could be' to a more mundane 'public styling clinic', that car will be 95% of the production cars.

I'm all tingly now. Part of me a excited yet another part is telling myself to settle down so I don't overhype the concept.

Geoff Chadwick

autoextremist has a lot of codswallop that they put out. Though a good article, its honestly nothing we dont hear every day over here thanks to our own insiders.

Honestly do I expect to see a camaro concept in January? I'd love to, but I doubt it'd happen. Look back at the HHR concept unveiled how many years ago?? It took them how many years to release this thing after we'd seen the concept? If timing is everything, by the time we'd see a concept, they'd need to be nearly ready to go into production. If that werent the case the excitement would be there, but then fizzle by the time GM got its act together and built it.

As I dont see us getting a 2007MY Camaro, I dont think we'll have any concepts. I could be wrong and really hope I am...

EDIT:

You edited your post to change font color. I know nobody can say anything, but I'm really hoping the idea of a concept in january is a sure thing.

Gripenfelter

I'll believe it when I see it.

All this secrecy about the future of the 5th gen is stupid. Its been said before and I'll say it again. GM could save future Camaro buyers from buying a Mustang GT right now if they were to start telling people that they had a car in the works. I'm not talking about hints, I mean a solid yes or no and an approximate date of delivery.

Z284ever

Here's a hypothetical.....

Let's say a certain company, will release a certain product, 2 or 3 or so years from now. Do they show a concept in 6 months or wait until closer to production release for more impact?

Z284ever

Peter DeLorenzo.

Darth Xed

Option 3) They finish up the GMT-900 trucks, then put all those resources on the Camaro.... get it rerady to go ASAP, and stop bleeding off tons of sales each year to Ford in an uncontested market!!!

With that in mind, show the car in 6 months, then have the production car ready to go sooner!

dream '94 Z28

IMO It would depend on what you wanted, or perhaps more relevent, have (meaning at your disposal) to show. If all I can show is a very close to production version, then I don't show anything more than a year out (like they did with the Mustang) otherwise you end up in a scenario like th eSolstice where you've tipped your styling (and powertrain) hand to the competition and giving them time to react.

Personally I'd like to see something wild 2 years out and something closer to production a year out. If it's a retro design I'd like to be shown the door.

Geoff Chadwick

Oh I know that very well. Look at the rest of my post.

Timing is everything.

But speed is also important, and how long was it supposed to take to get the solstice to production? How long did it end up taking? This isnt a firs time for GM. Granted, they could have flown it under rader (note the sportbike image that was coined here months ago) and kept it from anyone's nose. But thats tough. With the spy picture escapades of the C6 Z06 maybe it was enough to keep people from leaking a drop on the F5. We dont know. But I dont want to be let down again.

IF we see a concept. I'm not totally convinced that we are. Could be? Sure, theres a chance. If we see one in January, would we see a full production model in fall of 06? I freakin well hope so, or I'm going to drive to Detroit and slap a whole bunch of people for messing up something.

Everyone on these forums knows how critical timing and marketing is for an F5. GM does too. And they are capable of doing it right.... but a question of WHEN has yet to be answered.... unless you're really really trying to tell us something.

AdamLT196

Thats a good read. I think camaro has a great chance to come back and i'm looking forward to it.

Only thing that came to mind was the reality of this "market" for a 2dr RWD car. The mustang is a hit. Yet, the only car in the segment tends to sell pretty well anyway. I don't think the market is much bigger than what the current stang is selling now. So camaro and challenger will just take as much as they can back from Ford.
Another thing to consider is the stang's leap in sales is also the effect of the competition leaving. So it IS the right time for Ford. I'll be interested to see how good this little pony is when it has something to fight against.

Geoff Chadwick

I'd tend to agree, but my one concern is that if its 2 years away and people start hearing the name "Camaro" and they're actually interested and not on the forums, you'll have people going to the dealer on a constant basis "When is the Camaro coming back?" "Dont know" and a year later they've all stopped checking. Cant afford that I think. And if its existed as long as these nutcase insiders want to imply, we'll be seeing a near production model if anything, as it'd have been in design for a few years now.

And we've been told it wouldnt be retro. Which is a good start.

95GRNZ

That is very well said.

TS

poSSum

I'd like to see something in Detroit, and if we're talking Sigma-lite plus the "2 sportbikes" theory, I see no reason why we shouldn't see an '08 model year F5 sometime in the 2nd half of '07. From a marketing perspective, I would even push to have a limited run of '07 40th anniversary cars.

I tend to disagree with most of this. It's mostly about the new Mustang being the right car at the right time. Mustang sales didn't jump significantly for MY '03 and '04.

If the F5 can hit a sweet spot as well, it will add to the total pony car market.

falchulk

The cycles for the popularity of a segment in this industry are a lot shorter today then in the 60's. Sure the SUV craze lasted almost a decade. I am not so sure a car 3 years from now will come to market in the same climate. Americans buying American style cars in big numbers is a realitively new development. In recenty past, the mustang, charger, 300, and magnum would not have been the hits they are. I hope Americans taste stay planted the way they are now but I doubt it. If all of the big 3 had players in the pony car market right now, they would be cleaning up. The time is now to ****** kids away from the dying import craze. It looks like everyone but Ford realized it too late.