Currently watching the Congress hearing on the automakers and one thing that seems to keep coming up is what is the expected annual vehicle sales after a recovery from the economic situation we are currently in. Wagner has said that he expects 15-16 million and I would assume, since Mulally and Nardelli havn't said otherwise, they expect something in that range. The guy that is there with them, havn't caught his name or anything, suggests that an expected annual rate would be 13 million or lower since vehicles last longer.

Thoughts?

 

The U.S. is a mature market; I don't know of any major auto maker who thinks otherwise. I'd say a TVM of 16M is optomistic (spikes maybe but not sustainable for the long term)...most of what I've read pegs the market in the 14M area and while market share will make modest shift here and there/back and forth; it's unlikely that we are going to see any big shifts from one manufacturer to another.

At least that's how I read things...I hope I'm wrong!