We have a few new people on the board since the last time I posted something on the Zeta, so here's a summary and a bit of an update. Although, I'll probally give plenty of lines to read between, there's quite a few agreements & promises I made, so I won't go into sensitive stuff or any behind the scenes specifics that haven't already been posted elsewhere, so don't ask.

There's alot of misconceptions as to what Zeta is & isn't, and I sense a bit of GM bashing waiting under the surface. I think GM-North America is oversized, wasteful, and hopelessly sluggish, but I also feel they are on the right track product-wise, so I'm willing to give them the benefit of doubt. I also think they have some great stuff coming.... sooner or later.

To clarify, Sigma is primarily Cadillac's structure that was designed to be flexible, & could create a wide range of vehicles. You can see this in that the CTS, the wider STS, the crossover SUV, and Cadillac's large car dream are all based on the Sigma chassis. It's also been brought up that the 5th gen, and that at least 2 other cars were considered for the structure.

Cost was mentioned as the reason this didn't happen, but what's forgotten was that GM was already mentioning a "volume Sigma" chassis before Bob Lutz's arrival at GM. GM was at least looking at the prospect of a "Zeta" back in 2000 or 2001. Also recognized back then was that Holden was going to update their car line in a few years. In retrospect, Zeta looks more like something that was a lingering & developing idea than something that came up with Bob Lutz.


Zeta isn't an across the board replacement for FWD cars. Bob Lutz himself indicated as much, both directly & indirectly. He's projecting 400,000 zeta based cars sold worldwide. If Holden continues to produce 160-180,000 cars per year, and assuming that if Opel gets a version, that's made here, and finally, China gets a version, we are probally looking at no more than 200,000 of those Zetas sold in North America. To put that into perspective, GM still sells nearly 200,000 Impalas, alone! It's not going to be a volume car.

Secondly, Zeta will be the basis for "aspirational" cars, NOT mainline models. It's not meant to replace the current Impala's position. This site is a rabid enthusiast's site, but yet there are still a substantial number of members who believe they'll die a horrible death if they drive a RWD car in the snow. If this view's present here, you can imagine how much it exists with the general public. There's still a huge market for mid-size & large FWD cars. GM can't ignore that large market, and we shouldn't ask them to. As long as we get ours.

Zeta is a modular architecture. Sort of like a Lego set. The reason GM-Holden took the lead from GM-North America is because Holden has been making a wide variety of models off of a single body structure for years at minimal cost.

With the help of GM's worldwide network, design & engineering is no longer limited to one country or region. That means a item under development in Australia also is linked by hyperspace to another project member in the US. That's why in another thread I said the idea of blaming Holden for not making something that GM-NA could produce was ludicrious and a smokescreen. If something like that did happen, it's because GM-NA engineers were sleep at the switch, or sabotaged it. In other words, NOT!!

Next, Zeta isn't the name of every car that's going to come off the structure. For all intents and purposes, "Zeta" is nothing more than a sports sedan. It can be made in 2 lengths, and can probally be made as an El Camino type vehicle or a large coupe. Look at a Holden Commodore, Holden Statesman, Holden UTE, and maybe Holden Monaro (Pontiac GTO) and you have the basis of the Zeta architecture. That's all it is.

However, that doesn't mean there can't be other cars 'based' on Zeta. Cars that can be made on the same assembly line or use existing parts. Perhaps a Buick designed convertible, or a new Camaro, or other similar car can be made with different dimensions but with many of the same parts & assembly methods as the larger sedans. Maybe even using the same suspension components and subsystems, but with a unique chassis architecture. Most of a car's development cost is in sub-systems such as suspension assemblies & drivetrain assemblies, not the unibody.

I'm not sure you could call these cars 'Zeta' since it's a different architecture, but they could be made on the same assembly line. That's what makes coupes profitable, the ability to be made on the same assembly line as higher volume sedans. Even the Mustang is now made in the same plant as the Mazda 6. Otherwise, Monte Carlo and just about every other coupe on the market today would be just as dead as the Camaro currently is.


To be sure, GM Holden Australia is creating a vehicle that will be sold here late next year. It will be much like the Saturn Sky that's identical to the Opel "Speedster" that's going to be sold in Europe (right down to the sheetmetal) or our current GTO that's a Holden Monaro. But there's also going to be an assembly line in North America to produce vehicles for both us and Europe.

There's alot of confusion going on lately regarding "Zeta". However, the problem isn't "Zeta, it's GM North America re-evaluating what it wants to do the 2nd half of the decade. Everything that's due to take place the next 12-18 months is locked in concrete. If it's due by late summer of 2006 as a 2007, it's a pretty sure thing it's going to be here. The Zeta sedans will be here for a couple of divisions within a couple of years.

However, anything beyond the next couple of years is still subject to revision. That's why I said unless someone tells you something is cancelled, don't get worked up. It's a process that's still underway, and some things might just come out soon that will disturb a few of you. Just don't read anything into any statements or releases that may come out in the near future beyond what is said.

As far as something being Sigma, Zeta, Kappa, or Beta, all I can say is simply focus on the cars that's coming out and only ask if it's FWD or RWD. GM is at the stage now where they are reviewing 2008 and beyond plans. They are looking at business cases, and are making sure they have the most cost efficient plan.

Some cars planned for one chassis will likely be changed to a different one because it's cheaper, or because it can be made at a particular underutilized plant, or because of some other reason. Unless it's cancelled, or delayed, or unless it is put on a FWD chassis do not worry about it! Trust me, worrying about this is trivial. If you have that much free time in your life, sell me a few hours. I'm running short.

Finally, keep everything in perspective. Ford doesn't seem intrested in making a modern RWD sports sedan that doesn't have a Lincoln LS badge, Chrysler doesn't seem to be intrested in expanding their LX chassis any farther, and with the remotely possible exception of the next Thunderbird, no one seems to have any RWD coupes on the horizon except GM.

They deserve alot of credit.

 

Ah, as always Guy, a great "Good Morning" post for me to read. Ill have to reread it to get at all the between-the-lines items.

 

This is part of the reason why I had such a hard time swallowing that at the time...

 

If (big if) GMNA sabotaged this upcoming chassis that is truly disheartening. I say that because that means they probably did it out of spite because little Holden did something better than them, and they were jealous at being one-upped. What I am getting at is it sounds like we might've gotten a better product if the relationship had worked out.

Also, wouldn't plans GM had from the pre-Lutz era be bad for a 5th gen? A lot of the weaker stuff we've seen from GM lately has been they legacy of a pre-Lutz GM.

And it seems like you're gearing us up for a letdown Guy. After reading your post I'm expecting there to be another "bash GM bandwagon" come along. Probably due to some more Zeta/Sigma controversy.

Finally, on the positive side of things, GM is at least developing RWD platforms, unlike Ford and DCX. GM's slew of new Zeta? models offer an answer to the Mustang almost by default, since the Chevy V8 coupe will be priced less than GTO.

Just my thoughts.

 

Man, I try to follow all this stuff. I read every post in the 5th gen section, and I'm still confused.

All this info is great, I'm sure, I just don't get it. I'll just soak up all this stuff and not understand too much while I wait to see something simpler... like a picture!

 

Thanks for the update. I'm almost begining to feel we should have a Zeta "sticky" in this forums.

I'm really excited about all the new RWD products. NO ONE is coming out with more RWD cars than GM in the next 3-4 years (Solstice, Sky, Camaro, new GTO, new CTS, Buick Velite, Park Ave, G8, Chevy Zeta sedan, Kappa Sedan?)

 

Guy...question for you. You referenced that Zeta would have a maximum of 400,000 units worldwide, then said ~170k would go to Australia (I presume they stay there), some would go to Opel, and still others would go to China. Then you said that leaves a max of 200,000 for the U.S. Unless a very, very, small number goes to Opel and China or the 400k number is too low, it would seem that 200k here sounds optimistic. Regardless, how many would be left over for a "Chevy Coupe" of some sort after GM uses some of those for a GTO and a Buick of some sort (assuming there are no other uses of the Zeta)?

 

What I dont understand is the numbers, cause IMO, they dont add up at all.
Ok, 200k give or take for US production right?
How many of that will give us Camaro? Lets say 60-100k of that. Now you also said that there has to be a sedan to justify the coupe, so there is going to be a sedan based off this, and let say its a Pontiac sedan. That leaves 100-140k units for the Pontiac sedan...
But where does that leave a Buick Velite type vehicle? Or a GTO? Europe?
Only thing I can imagine of is that there is an off-shoot of Zeta that we dont seem to know about as of now, which you do alude to in the post. A chassis, unnamed, but could use subsystems of Zeta, much like the "Beta" chassis uses Kappa subsystems, but not nessessarly use ALL of Zeta. Now if this "Zeta Jr" develops into what we get for coupe production, GTO-Camaro-others, how does this effect the "200k" number itself?
What still bugs me is what is Zeta, or what isn't Zeta? Zeta sounds flexable as far as subsystems, but could the, and im shooting in the dark here, cheaper subsystems of Zeta be brought into Simga?

edit: seems as if Im not the only one with the numbers question.
I think the 400k mark is for US alone. Let Holden export to Europe and China, I say its gunna be at least 300-400k units for US production.
Thats enough to cover a 100-140k unit G8, 100-120k Chevy sedan, 60-100k Camaro, 60-100k Buick sedan and coupe, as well as a 40-60k GTO. Thoes numbers are also shots in the dark.
I figure Pontiac's size and volume would be cut down a LOT if the GP and Bonnie going buhbye, and replacement of a G8 like vehicle. I dont know if Pontiac wants to cut down its volume with such big sellers like that.

 

I don't know what the Mustang projections are, but I can't imagine GM being as optimistic as your estimates for the Camaro and GTO. The GTO has had its difficulties with <20K production (albeit with the questionable styling); I just can't seem them forecasting sales to triple. They'd be fairly conservative with Camaro as well.

I could see GM budgeting 100-110K units of Camaro and GTO combined.

 

Don't want to say that Zeta has quite become vaporware for NA yet, but it's getting pretty close.

What Zeta WAS 2-3 months ago is history. As I've said, the architecture, the cars built off of it, everything.....the whole ball of wax...is under intense review. Nobody knows the final outcome of this review, no one here, maybe even no one at GM yet.

-Will Zeta move forward?

-If it does, how will it change?

-Can they be assembled more efficiently than the INCREDIBLY efficient LGR Sigma plant?

-Does it even make sense to use Zeta, or not?

-Do you REALLY need BOTH Zeta and Sigma?

-Will it even be called Zeta?

-Will some cars planned for Zeta, go FWD? (I'm beginning to think this is what Asensio was getting at. ).

-Will there be any coupes - after all is said and done?

Holden will get their cars, for sure. Pontiac will most probably get a version of the Commodore as a G8 and Buick will maybe get a version of the next Statesman.

And Chevy really, really wants a RWD sedan, (not as a replacement for the W-car Impala) and a certain coupe.

Beyond that.................no promises.

 

The Vette ($44K-$55K) sold 35,000 last year, why couldn't a cheaper GTO ($28K-$35K) sell 40,000???

Mustang sold 120,000-130,000 over the last few years, they can built up to 150,000 of the new car. 4th gen F-body sold 70,000 in the bad years, 150K+ in the good. I think 75,000-100,000 is a very likly for the camaro, maybe more if they offer AWD on the V6 and 5.3L V8

 

I just have a feeling GM will be more cautious than less, at least initally, with producing so many coupes. Keep in mind that the new GTO will be designed to sell at its sticker (likely 35K+) and not through heavy rebates, which will negate some buyers by its price, and the addition of the Solstice to the lineup which will snag some sales from this group, and you have a smaller figure on the Pontiac side of the equation.

Anyways, drawing comparisons to Corvette isn't much of an indicator for Camaro/GTO sales.

 

not in my book. they waited for chrysler to take the risk of the 300C. and like i said 6 months ago, big cars are the new SUV's

 

-Mustang
-G35
-350Z
And if we're including upcoming rumored cars:
-Cougar.
-Something from Toyota.

I know it was late when you typed.

 

can't forget about the "luxury" brands. For the most part they are almost all RWD or AWD.
- Mercedes Benz
- Lexus
- BMW
- Rolls Royce
- Jaguar

etc. etc.

I know that GM is working on bringing out new RWD V8 coupes and sedans, I just hate the waiting...