I like to two pics lower in the thread. They look like nice DD/family haulers with a nice enginge.

And when it comes to Pontiac names:

Of all brands to go alpha-numeric, Pontiac should not have been one of them. Talk about the best names in the business. All race tracks or something to do with racing.

 

You should take a look at the Taurus up close at a dealership. It definitely looks big. I actually really like the Taurus styling, it looks really good, I just wish I could get it in RWD and not FWD.

As for the Caprice, maybe when my work van (09 E150) goes over its mileage limit for my company, I can convince them to get me a new Caprice. I don't really need the E150 anymore, since I don't carry anywhere near the number of parts and equipment for my new position. I'd much rather spend my 5-8 hour drives for travel in a nice Caprice. Even if it only had a V6 in it.

 

You can compromise and get it in AWD.

 

Well, I think it's fair to say that if Holden production on this product is kept at or near capacity and orders continue in a stable fashion, you can say it's selling well. Let's call that number 25-30K per year. If cars are piling up on lots like cord wood, and GM starts revising sales projections and reducing orders to Holden, or putting cash on the hood, then it's not selling well. Pretty basic concept. I guess the poll does assume that if you're on this part of the site, you've been keeping up with current events, without needing footnotes qualifying every statement or question. Maybe that's where Jake is getting tripped up.

I do think that GM has learned some lessons from the GTO and G8 though and will proceed differently this time.

 

The point being that both the GTO and G8 required transaction prices in the mid-20K range to stimulate sales. Moreso for the GTO.

 

My point exactly with the Caprice - Pontiac buyers became conditioned to see pricing from a discount point of view, so even though the cars were priced reasonably enough by GM (not talking about dealership price adjustments here) most buyers didn't equate the prices on the window with what they were conditioned to expect. That's why I think Chevy has to be careful with the Caprice - In Australia it's a hands-down luxury car and is expensive. Chevrolet is not a luxury brand so stratospheric pricing won't work - see SSR.

 

A who exactly is the target customer? Is it the guy who would normally buy a Tahoe or Suburban? Is it the guy who would normally buy a near luxury Buick/Caddy?Lincoln? And why would they buy a Caprice over what they normally buy?

 

Can't argue with you on anything here.

I think 25-30K is probably what GM is hoping for. But being that Chevrolet hasn't had a newly styled large vehicle in their showrooms in over 5 years, I'd expect (as I'm sure GM fears) a car like Caprice would sell 2 or even 3 times more (even Dodge Chargers got up to nearly 100K annual rate at one time). Between CAFE and Holden's plant capacity, I think that'd have a chilling effect on GM even advertizing the car when it gets here.

Again, the incentive here for GM is profit per vehicle not sales volume. The Caprice would easily be the vehicle with the highest profit in the Chevrolet showroom of any other vehicle save loaded Tahoes/Suburbans and possibly the Z06 Corvette if it goes for between 38 and $40K as I'm expecting.

G8 GTs seemed to run in the mid 20s. GTO's average transaction price I remember to be about 27-$29K of a MSRP of about 33K.

You're way, way off Sharpshooter.

First of all, there are no more Pontiac buyers. Pontiac name was no more as of last week. So essentially Pontiac buyers are extinct and have to go elsewhere.

Secondly, in case you haven't noticed, no one (not even Chrysler) is piling incentives on the hood anymore. US automakers have discovered that they make more money selling cars at retail than focusing on sales numbers at any price.

Third, the Caprice is already in production in 3 countries (Australia, Korea, and China) and is sold in at the very least, 10. Tooling is paid for already. Fact of the matter is that GM is looking to make some extra pocket change selling the car to police and civilians here in the US. GM isn't going to pile incentives on the hood for people to buy them. GM will simply import to just barely meet demand.... up to a certain point. Again, the focus is per-vehicle" profit. Not high sales numbers.

Finally, the type of person who would buy a Chevrolet Caprice isn't going to be a incentive hunter any more than the buyer of a Corvette or Shelby GT 500. It's going to be someone to whom a Malibu is a beginers car and the Impala is still too lowbrow. You are talking about older people who want the top Chevrolet. Not a sports car, but a classic, fast, very well made, smooth riding, sports sedan.

 

I hate AWD just as much as I hate FWD, especially a FWD platform with AWD added on. Both are not the way cars were meant to be driven.

 

I think it will come down to marketing. If GM treats civilian version along the lines of "well we already have the vehicle, so let's just throw it in the showroom and see how it does since it's not costing us anything" ... then it will fail.

But if they seriously try to market it as a mainstream car, as a car they actually want to be a retail success, a car with a decent marketing budget, then I think there's a lot of people who would buy it (assuming it's not overpriced).

Which route will GM take? All signs thus far would suggest the first one

 

25-30k would probably suit Holden just fine especially since the car was designed to be profitable based just on domestic production alone, which is far less than the 25-30k you mention. I really don't think GM will have any problem finding those buyers - well-heeled folk who had a Caprice back in the day would likely be potential buyers interested in the revamped nameplate - modern style and execution and driving dynamics (not a sports car I know, but way ahead of the floating land-barge dynamics of old) alone compared to the past cars should do it.

 

Good point. To that I'd add that perhaps having a retail version is simply support for the PPV's business case. By that I mean, law enforcement may feel less shaky about buying a product if they know that versions of it are also on the showroom floor - and all the parts and service support that implies.

 

Define failure.

Lets go back to the GTO.

The car was designed as a Holden Monaro, and was structured to be a break-even to profitable car for Holden by being sold for 3 years at an average of just 5,000 cars annually.

GM-NA picks up the car, puts on a cheap Pontiac nose, moves the fuel tank into the trunk, and tunes the exhaust sound and suddenly a car whose cost structure was built around 3 years and 15,000 cars not is around 5 years and sells a total of 60,000 cars.

GTO is perhaps one of the the most successful automotive "failure" in history.

Point is that GM doesn't even need to market the cars. The cars will stand out enough that people will notice them and be curious. But even discarding that, once again, the cars are already in production. All GM would be doing selling the cars here is keeping the plant moving and making pocket change on the side.


Which is the whole point, and answers Charlie's question as to who would buy the car.

Look at the 90s era Chevrolet SS.

All it was was a Chevrolet Caprice with Buick Roadmaster seats, B4C suspension, aftermarket rims, and black paint. Nothing more. The same LT1 engine was available in a regular (and cheaper) Caprice. Yet older guys bought them up in numbers that GM wasn't remotely expecting.

Today, those same types of older buyers who want both luxury and power can only buy Chrysler 300s. The ones with a bit more cash are looking at previously owned BMWs.

Again, you hit a point that is unavoidable.

You can not simply produce and sell a car to police departments without having a civilian version to sell in bulk. Taxpayer funded agencies run under extremely tight budgets. Plentyful and cheap parts and service are more important than speed. There is a lot of intrest in the Caprice now that the Crown Vic is going away. Procuring divisions love the choices sthat competition brings since it helps bring bids (and costs) down.

Going off subject briefly, that is why Carbon Motors is destined to fail. To date, there is virtually zero intrest in agencies actually purchasing them outside of the Feds and the military (Carbon's claim of the number of agencies who reserved cars is extremely misleading if not complete hogwash... it's a non binding expression of intrest).

Parts availability, initial cost, the fact that purchasing agencies could only resell the vehicles back to Carbon at the end of the car's service life (at whatever Carbon chooses to pay) puts Carbon dead in the water even before they knock on the door. Carbon is depending on the Feds and the military (whose procuring policies favor small business over much larger ones when possible) for sales until law enforcement agencies pick them up.

Of course, a police only Caprice wouldn't have anywhere near that type of situation. However, because it would be competing with the Dodge Charger (and even it's own Impala), it's going to need to be competitive in bids and maintence and repair costs.

Which is why we're almost certainly getting a civilian version a year or 2 after the police version.

 

Hate me for saying so, but I actually find the current Impala a more attractive car that the Caprice. I would argue that most buyers in this segment could care less which wheels propel the vehicle, which means unless they discontinue Impala at the same time, it will end up only selling to enthusiasts who like big ol' honkin' RWD land yachts.

 

It's really too bad that GM (at lest here in NA) can't get it's collective head around simultaneous launches going. Two years for a civilian car may be too long a wait - wouldn't that make purchasing depts squeamish about adopting a car that isn't readily available to the general public in the first place - not a great indicator of the all-important lower maintenance costs. This would be no different really than the Carbon scenario. A two year wait means, to me, that the civilian version of the car isn't going to be the cop-car version - it 's going to probably be the upcoming VF (next generation) car. While that's not a bad alternative, it's not going to do much for successfully marketing the car now. That window has to close to, I dunno, six months to a year to be feasible, IMO - not that I'm an expert.

Caprice is available right now in Chevy guise, why the longer wait? Styling, emissions, crash-worthiness? That's already done.