Burmite

I don't post that often because I only post when I feel I have something very signigicant to add to a discussion instead of posting "I'm with you on that!" type of posts. But here I go with one of my long posts:

I'm not sure if 100,000-200,000 would be possible in an all out performance car such as the Camaro. The Mustang is more appealing for many reasons that we have discussed here which has helped ot bring in female buyers. You can't sell 100,000-200,000 cars a year to a market that doesn't exist. The days of 100,000-200,000 a year like with the 3rd gen are OVER. Markets always change and right now, the market has changed a LOT. There is a much greater emphasis on lucury cars, luxury performance, SUV's, cross over vehicles, and economy cars now. This has shrunk the Camaro's market a lot from the days of the 3rd gen when this was not the case.

Here on this board we need to be a lot more analytical of the market out there.
- The desired 5th gen of a 600hp dragster that some seem to want will not sell!
- You cannot profitably make a Camaro with Corvette parts and expect it to cost $20k
- You cannot buy 350hp for $20,000 anymore. It's called inflation and rising costs of production. Sorry guys.
- If Red Planet says that a mid model is not economically feasible, then it IS NOT economically feasible.
- If Red Planet says that advertising will not help, then it WILL NOT help.

We think in a dream world too much here. 100-200k a year? Only trucks and economy/family cars sell that much a year. The sports car market is small and you CANNOT force a market. Sorry. You can't make people buy. I don't want to hear the argument that "if you make it right and advertise it they'll buy a Camaro." It's full of flaws. Most people now don't want a V8 monster.

Statistics is an amazing science. You can predict many things based up compalations of probabilities and facts. GM has statiticians that work to predict whether to introduce a certain car or not to a market and predict its sales before it ever reches dealer lots. Now, these guys work full time and calculate this stuff. Now I'm sure the question was asked, "What if we were to add a 3rd mid-range model like in the 3rd gen?" They assessed this and figured out profits would be LESS than if they maintained a two model system. The cars would not overall increase sales enough to justify the complexity in adding the extra necessities required in the plant to make that model.
Statiticians are right most of the time.
So when Red Planet says they can't add a 3rd model, BELIEVE HIM. They already assessed this possibility.

They assessed the extra amount of sales that would come from advertising in this market. But if advertising would not help, they figured out that the increase in sales would not offset the millions of dollars required for the advertising. Meaning, there is LITTLE room to expand the market of Camaro buyers. Another sign that the 100-200k years are over.

Summary of rant- There are a lot of things RP and GM are trying to work around right now and we need to be a little more rooted in fact than fiction. We don't look at reality enough here on the board at times. We've gotten better recently though. But there's a few members on this board that have a definite reputation I think for not looking a reality. So IZ28, wake up a little please?

guionM

Maybe I'm grabbing at straws here, but with Alero headed for that car division in the sky, Sunfire soon to die, no word yet on a Cavalier coupe, Saturn's Ion being a 3 door, and Grand Am soon joining it, other than Monte Carlo (future uncertain) and GTO (which may be expanded to an entire line), Seems there may be room for a car like Camaro afterall.

IZ28

No see, I think you and the others that stick up for whatever they say need to wake up. I know there are plenty that will agree. Its not just the Third Gen, its the 1st and 2nd Gen that benefitted from using all ranges of models and similar tactics. And guess what, they all succeeded and the 4th Gen didn't. You are another 1 just making excuses. The market DOES exist. Have you not seen proof of that YET?? So, the M*****g is selling great and the 4th Gen didn't. Thats because F**d kept the car the same and kept making it better when they could. They sell more because there is more to choose from and the car is made out to be 1 of the cars they are the most proud of. The Camaro can be the same and can be the car it was before 93. Do you realize out of 10 years the previous Gen only had 2 good selling years?? Most likely because of it being new. You can't have a car that lacks so many things and expect it to sell. GM has more money than the other companies and they can't afford a mid model Camaro?? How was it done in the other Gens?? And of course advertising helps. The car has to compromise itself for its buyers, not like the 4th Gens' take it or leave it approach. It has to appeal to many and all buyers. If they intend on making another 4th Gen-like car in looks, models, support, and price, you will HAVE 4th Gen-like results AGAIN. The idea is to take over the market, make an undeniable car that will take sales from the others. Not say, oh, I guess since there are other cars selling good and alot of competitors, we can't do that and should just forget about it, or only sell this set amount. Come on now, I don't even want to hear it.

guionM

Burmite, you are right in that the current sports car market won't sustain a 200,000 per year Camaro. But at the same time, I feel you miss a few items.

Statistics is an imperfect science. In a perfect world, one could sit down and calculate the probabilities of everything in life, but the flaw here are variables. For instance, no one predicted the SUV boom. GM's staticians predicted the SUV was just a fad (the one instance I wish they were right). But you can't predict human nature, people went right on buying them, and GM scrambled to get in on this. Another glaring example (in this instance, having nothing do do with cars) , remember for most of the mid '90s how we were always hearing that a recession or minor downturn was just around the corner? In the end, it took a couple of planes plowing into the WTC to create a downturn. Again variables.

Right now, the market of RWD powered coupes is expanding, ironically just as GM kills off it's entry. The number one selling coupe? Mustang, Camaro's competitor. Also, people are turning more towards unique and stylish cars. Ford and Chrysler also have staticicians. So does Toyota & Nissan. All are bringing entries into this market. The difference IMHO is that in their instance, statistics are weighed with a bit of 'car sense' as well.

The problem isn't the market, the problem is the parimeters that are being set up. Is the profit margin going to be high enough or is production high enough to warrant using up space where we could build a vehicle with a higher profit margin?

I don't think anyone seriously think's the next Camaro should be a 600hp dragster, or a $20,000 LS6. But a sub-$30,000 Z28 that performs no less than the previous version that's more contemporary to me isn't much to ask for.

RamAirBird2k2

For a 5th gen to be a sucess, it will HAVE to appeal to the female buyer alot more than it does now. I see alot more women driving mustangs than I do camaros. Why is that, who knows? (someone smarter than me could probably tell you) Women these days are responsible, either directly or indirectly, for 53% of the new car purchases, and by the F body being not appealing to women, (not counting the female members of this site) GM is missing alot of potential customers.

DaxsZ28

I've never actually seen where Scott said that advertising wouldn't help. I'm not saying he didn't, but I would love to see the context of that quote. I bet, if he did say something close to that, he meant it wouldn't help the 4th gen after the writing was on the wall. I think if they sold 100,000 F-bodies in 2001, they still would have killed the car. JMO.

Why wouldn't advertising help? I'm talking about help selling a car that isn't already doomed here. If it doesn't help, why do all these car manufacturers spend Billions on advertising? You have to advertise the car. When the 4th gen first came out, they advertised it fairly well, and the car sold fairly well. After the car was doomed, and advertising was pulled, sales plummeted. There's got to be a connection there.

I just don't think Scott wouldn't want any advertising. I bet he wants all kinds of advertising when (not if) the 5th gen hits the streets. I just hope he gets it!

Z284ever

Burmite, you are of course entitled to your opinion.......BUT MAN, WHAT A DEPRESSING POST!

After reading it, I feel like downing a bottle of bourbon and blowing my brains out ( JUST KIDDING ).

What your saying is that we can't have dreams or wants with the cars we want. Don't dare expressing any desires......the statsticians have it all figured out for you. Don't dare telling us what you want.....you've been told what to buy.


Well, maybe a 600hp drag car is alittle unreasonable....but I don't think a 400hp road racer is.

As far as a mid-range V8....I think that's a great idea. Let's start a new thread!

Burmite

Lol, sorry I didn't mean for it to be so depressing. Its finals right now at school, I was sorta in a pissy mood yesterday. But its not that we can't have our dream cars, its that GM will do what is profitable and will investigate to do what is profitable. If there is a profit to be made with an all out performance, but affordable car then GM will do it. But if that market is only 30,000 cars a year, then they will have to restrict it to be less optioned car due sales of that car. How many engine options does the 350Z have? They completely forgoed an affordable lower power V6 to ensure it was profitable. We might see a turbo version in the future, but nothing is for certain. But anyways, see my post in your thread Z28Forever, I replied a little better and a little completer there. We'll have an all out performance car, but if there is less profits to be made on a 3 engine car, than a 2 engine car, then we'll see the 2 engine car instead.

Burmite

BTW, I was being sarcastic about the 600hp dragster. It's that some want to go with a 7.0L or the 8.1 big block in the 5th gen. We have to remember about the Corvette too! The Camaro must be somewhat close to the power figures of the Corvette. 400hp is DEFINETELY not out of the picture especially with the 2003 Cobra.

guionM

No worries. Been feeling a bit punchy myself lately, Burmite.

Fbodfather

Mr. Harden is a very, very, very wise man.

And Burmite, you have some very valid points.

Finally, comparing the market during the 1st and 2nd Gens -- and even 3rd gens to the current market is like comparing apples to oranges. --both of the fruit family, but very few similarities..........the market makeup and the segments within the market are wildly different....not to mention the additional number of manufacturers now building cars for the U.S. Market.

IZ28

"Mr. Harden is a very, very, very wise man."

Its just like I thought then. The no information has a reason, that plant BS.


"And Burmite, you have some very valid points.

Finally, comparing the market during the 1st and 2nd Gens -- and even 3rd gens to the current market is like comparing apples to oranges. --both of the fruit family, but very few similarities..........the market makeup and the segments within the market are wildly different....not to mention the additional number of manufacturers now building cars for the U.S. Market."

Its funny how these things haven't phased F**d and the M*****g at all, isn't it?!

Aeromaks

And the Car god's said "Lets shed some light on these guys and let them know they are at least right in their thinking, and how it took them soooo damn long to figure it out, it was always there, just had to piece it all together," i say sticky this post, hehe.


Red Planet

Burmite

Thanks for the comment Red Planet!

But what do I want for a 5th gen? Here is my proposed business case to GM:

-Assume that the low cost RWD Sigma/V car chassis is used for the Monte Carlo, Grand Prix, and other vehicles. Knowing that this frame will be used on these models which are high volume vehicles, with a level of sportiness attached to them (Grand Prix GXP and future Impala SS).

Therefore, since these are high volume vehicles with many engine options, it would be likely that this would carry over to the RWD car. Right now the cars come with roughly 3 engine choices: an Ecotec, 3.8 V6, and the 3.8SC. But with GM's development of a 4 cylinder Ecotec market with Saturn and other small cars, that a 4 cylinder Monte Carlo and Grand Prix would not ne needed.

Therefore we can drop this from the line and use a different array of engine options. Here is my proposed engine lineup for these high volume cars:
1) High value V6- Possibly the 3.8 once again in 200hp tune.
2) High feature V6- Use the 3.6 from the upcoming power boosted CTS base model. Have this in 240-250hp tune.
3) High value V8- Use a 5.3L truck based Gen IV small block since this will be the GM standard at this time. Have this in 280-290hp tune.

This raises the bar of GM introductory performance in these future cars. These engines and 3 choices for engines would be optimal for a high volume car such as the combined sales of the G-body form. This would be a modern chassis with IRS, performance, and all the luxuries that one would expect on the Monte Carlo SS today. I'm sure Darth Xed will back me up on this. They are fine cars!

-Proposition: These cars will be offered in two door form. Therefore with RWD V8 capability, only introductory perofmormance, a coupe layout given by the composition of the models of this new "G-body," and comfortable rear seating, this would be interesting to take to the next level.

-Since this chassis and frame will already be paid for by the Monte Carlo, Grand Prix, Impala, new Chevy car, or whatever shall be built on this frame since it is a high volume car, here is my proposition.

- Forget the Camaro as a car with a V6. A V6 Camaro will compete too much with the Monte Carlo and other introductory performance cars. Leave it to them to have the V6 sales. Instead, make this a V8 only car built upon this frame with targeted sales of only 30,000 cars a year.

Change the body paneling and such to make it unique on this frame, but keep as many components as possible such as internals, fuel tank, axle, electricals, and whatever can be shared as much as possible between these two cars. Lower it and put larger tires and rims on it along with a higher performing suspension. Offer these TWO engine options:

1) Camaro- offered with the SAME 5.3L Gen IV high value V8 engine from the Monte Carlo with 290-300hp, power increased mostly from a different exhaust system offered on this car.
2) Camaro Z28 or SS (don't debate the title here please, we've done that enough. Fill in your high end brand name here whoever reads this)- Offer a high feature V8 6.0L Gen IV with 400hp. Make it as racy as possible without nipping too much on the heels of the C6.

These second engine (the 5.3L) would be a carry over from the Monte Carlo while the upgraded option, the 6.0L, will be the only additional cost to this car. The rest would be relatively cheap to produce.

-It it beginning to look like the Sigma plants will be used for other projects and that there will be no room for a Camaro.
- The Solstice frame would be too much work to make a Camaro while this would be a LOT easier.
- This also offers a V6 model too without the Monte Carlo and the Camaro competing against each other.
- I know Red Planet says V6, V6, V6 all the time, but this is only an idea from my viewpoint. This includes the V6 in a different format.

Comments please?

guionM

If we were in a meeting, and I was arguing an opposite view, here would be my position :

There will still need to be considerable money spent to create the structure for a new Camaro if based on an existing sigma (CTS) structure. Though true, alot of expense will be saved by using Sigma components such as front & rear suspension assembly, there isn't much you could use from the sigma structure except maybe a modified version of the floorpan (just look how tall the firewall is compared to 4th gen!).

This means that you can either spend the money to modify what is basically a CTS to become a Camaro, and spend a lot of money, or use a structure that's already being developed for a sports car like Solstice, which is already under development, and spend alot less money, yet have a chassis that's cheaper and just as good. Lower development costs would mean a lower break even point, and also a lower cost to the consumer, especially since the car is scheduled to be spread among 3 divisions and be profitable as is.

Since the chassis is under development, such items as having enough room for a V8 & 6 speed, and chassis ridgidity can be engineered in, and there is already a 2+2 and 4 passenger convertible proposed, so it would be simply a matter of designing a skin & interior and certifying the drivetrain and components that are unique to a Camaro based on this chassis.

Although in this instance, due to the spread of costs with other divisions, a V8 could be profitably done, we'd want to expand profitability as far as possible by ensuring volume. That simply can't be done with a V8 only carline, which has traditionally been another car in the same division... Corvette. This means we would need to at least have a V6 as the volume builder. However, in this instance, base Camaro would be in a slightly different position than before. By basing Camaro on a Solstice chassis, Camaro would be 200-300 lbs lighter across the board. In other words, faster Camaros across the board. With some upgrades, a base V6 Camaro could be as fast as a G35 coupe, while costing about 5 grand less!

Camaro & Monte Carlo buyers are not the same. A Camaro owner may move up to a Monte Carlo, or a Monte Carlo owner may purchase a Camaro as a daily driver or a sport's "toy", but one car does not canabalize the other. Therefore, one can't be asked to fill in for the other. Relying on a full sized V6 Monte Carlo to fill a niche as a low priced V6 2+2 isn't possible. Also, if we will be settling for only 30,000 annual sales from a nameplate with the historical significance as Camaro, we shouldn't bring it pack period, because it'd be saying 'Sorry, we can't hack it in the real market with real competition, so we'll just become a niche car for a few people'. That would be selling Camaro's history short. Even if the Cavalier coupe needs to be discontinued to do it, Camaro should at least be a 50,000 unit per year car, and should compete with all comers. Afterall, it DOES have over 35 years of history behind it!

So my points in summary are these:
* We would spend a fraction in development costs piggybacking off the proposed Solstice, Bengal, & Sky platform as what would be required engineering a completely new CTS sigma based structure.
* The project is still young enough to add in V8 performance capability.
* Both break-even production numbers & vehicle price will be much lower, ensuring profitability during very possible future sales downturns, let alone sales booms.
* Investments would be little more than skin and interior design, and component certification. Most everything else is already paid for.
* Corvette is the V8 only performance car. Camaro historically sucessfully bridges the gap between Corvette and small sporty cars, therefore a base model (in this case a V6) is just as important as a Corvette based V8.
* A Camaro as a V8 only model is surrendering an entire market segment to a host of competitors. This would not only make Camaro difficult to justify in the future (sooner or later all cars need to make a case to continue) and make it a shadow of itself, but would also blur it's position in the market to the Corvette.

With Cavalier to soon become a rebodied Ion, there really isn't a case to continue a Cavalier coupe. At Pontiac, the slow selling FWD Grand Prix coupe is replaced by a RWD GTO that is generating alot of excitement in the market. Discontinuing the Cavalier coupe, and replacing it with a well made reasonably priced, and most of all, profitable Solstice based Camaro line, including V8 and V6 models, would not only expand Camaro's market segment share, create lighter faster Camaros across the line, and keep costs in line, it would also ensure it's future as a broad based, performance oriented sports car that would live up to it's history in all aspects, without giving up any quarter.