Z28x

Deflation would be very destructive. That is what caused the Great Depression, cheap abundant credit followed by deflation in money supply. Also the Federal Gov't has too much debt to go the deflation route. The only way to get out of the Tens of Trillions of American debt is Weimar Republic style hyperinflation.

Eric Bryant

Even if there is extra supply on the market right now - and I've yet to see numbers that prove that there is - it's highly doubtful that any additional capacity will still be available in the upcoming months. I posted this link in a Lounge thread on the topic, but it'd be useful reading for participants in this thread as well:

Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch

indieaz

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...2/ccoil122.xml

HuJass

I think there have been some experts saying that the supply side for crude oil is relatively stable right now.

But you're right about capacity. What good is 2 bazillion barrels of oil sitting in stockpile if you can't move it and refine it? You're only as good as your most restrictive point.
That's why companies need to be investing in refineries and pipelines. But first we have to get the government to let that happen. I think they ought to force companies to do it.
What are the oil companies reinvesting in exploration and infrastructure? I thought I read or heard it was only like 1.1% of their gross revenue, or their profit, or something like that. Either way, it's miniscule and not doing a damn thing to help our country. They need to cough up some of that record profit to help out this country.

ChevyNovs99

Thanks for clearing that up. Wouldn't hyperinflation lead to the same end as deflation, less consumer spending and an economic depression?

Bob Cosby

Will that make you feel better? That's about the only good you'll get out of it, as it sure won't reduce gasoline prices.

And what you going to do with that money? Let the gov't decide the best way to spend it? You think THAT will help?

I have no issues with American Oil Company profits. None at all.

Z28x

Yes but we would have no more debt, so long as your debt is fixed rate. Recovery would be a lot quicker. With deflation debt stays the same, but the value of the dollar goes up, thus the debt goes up.

Actually with hyperinflation consumer spending would go crazy. People would be buying as fast as they could before prices go up. There would be no point in saving (in dollars). Your better off owning tangible things that hold value.

mastrdrver

Isn't hyperinflation what happened during the 70s or is it more than that?

HuJass

I think maybe you misunderstood me.

I don't want their money (although that would be nice).

I just want them to start re-investing it in exploration and infrastructure at a much higher rate than they are currently.

HuJass

Didn't they refer to that as "stagflation"?

Bob Cosby

Ok - it is possible I did misunderstand you. As for exploring and infrastructure, there are roadblocks (no pun intended) to this that are imposed on them (and us) by a variety of groups and gov't organizations.

I am certainly all for researching & developing alternative, truly renewable sources of energy, and believe a lot more "energy" needs to be focused in these areas. This is an area where both gov't and private industry (including "big oil") could help tremendously.

Bob

Suaveat69

They can't!!! The feds will not allow it. IIRC, Exxon has 132 operations around the world currently for drilling, refining and exploration. They have ZERO here in the US because they are not aloud.

HuJass

And that's why I posted in one of my earlier posts in this thread, that the feds need to not only let these companies drill for new oil and build new refineries and pipelines, but to also "convince" them it's the right thing to do. It would be a complete 180 for the feds, but it needs to be done.
I don't know how the feds would convince them (maybe they wouldn't have to, but I bet they would), but I'm sure they could find a way.

Meanwhile, back to the speculator part of oil's runup, I read today in Telegraph UK that Germany wants to halt oil trading on the commodities market. I think they said they want to have a meeting with the G8 countries and see if they can get all 8 countries to agree to do this. Some people say that speculators would just go "off-shore" to buy their oil and we would never know what the true price of oil would be were this to happen. My question to that is, do we know the true price of oil now?? I say it needs to be done. Oil has been on the commodities market only since 1983. What did we do before that?
And I like Congress' idea of limiting the time of how long oil contracts can be held. GEt the people who are just trying to make a buck off the runup out of the picture.

In my mind, the only people who should even be allowed to buy crude oil are the companies that actually use crude oil. If you or your company does not directly use crude oil, then you can't purchase it.
The companies that actually need it should be the ones who set the price, BUT only through the supply and demand way. Certainly not by speculation.

Suaveat69

You also need to ask the feds to cough up their recod profits from the gas tax, to the tune of 26.8 Billion in 2006. The oil companies if allowed, would take their profits and invesst in drilling and building more refineries if they were allowed.

Take a listen to the lasted hearing on oil and see what some of the people that run of government have to say. Maxine Walters and Patrick Leahy were totally incredulous to say the least!

Maximum Bob

The Feds need the gas tax to maintain the COUNTRY'S infrastructure! Where do you think the money to maintain the roads & bridges comes from? In fact the reason that a bridge collapsed a few months ago while people were driving on it is because the administration has been diverting some of the money to sustain the Bush War! So if anyone needs to be spending money on oil equipment upgrades it's the oil companies themselves. But with their raking in of record setting profits with the current status quo they feel absolutely no motivation to do that.