Guy, this is effectively legislating performance cars right out of the market. And you know what? I believe this IS THE GOAL. Sorry, I call 'em like I see 'em.

"We can keep building the V8 Camaro, but it'll cost you an arm and a leg."

<fast forward 3 years>

"Nobody's buying them. Kill it."

That must be that new-fangled fuzzy math, because in the 10 year span you're talking about the standards rose 13.5 mpg or almost double, and the jump we're talking about now is a 14.5 mpg jump, MORE than double, with only 6 years (effectively) to get there. I realize that available technology is far better now, but the challenge is similar....

It's funny how fuel economy has kept going up even though the law hasn't. It's called free market demand. We've had a MPG war through natural forces. Just let it continue.....

 

The reason Honda and Toyota's "imported" number they tend to import more small cars..while making more profitable sedans here...though Honda is making the Civic here now.

I am not sure how far this plan will make it. I mean I can ask for 5 cent Big Mac's..and if it is not possible, it won't happen.

What is funny is this current government is so worried about leaving a green planet...for future generations...but they have no issue leaving them staggering unrepayable debt also. I guess our kids will have a forrest to live in, and clean rivers to bath in when the country goes bankrupt.

 

If GM developed the Volt EXCLUSIVELY to protect the Camaro and Corvette, then, that would be true.

How does your 36 MPG Focus + your 24 MPG Camaro = a 42 MPG average?

 

Can I just add that this whole "green" movement is a whole lotta bullsh!t? Follow the money on this one my friends - people are making $billions$.

 

CAFE is small potatos next to any greenhouse gas limits (read CO2 limits) the EPA will impose which by fiat (did I even use that right?) will dictate how much fuel mileage a vehicle will have to generate in order to meet the GH-gas limits

 

I think he is talking about the current 27.5 average

50% of what you asked about, Hondas. On average half will be below 39.9 and half will be above 39.9mpg

I think they are more worried about the **** storm when we cross over the oil production peak. People for get that oil is a finite resource, once we pump ~50% out of the ground the next ~50% will be a lot harder and more expensive to get. Add to that lack of investment over the last year and you can see that when the economy recovers $4-$5 will be right around the corner.

Now that gas is $2 again it is almost like we didn't learn any lessons from last summers $4+ gasoline. $4-$5 will choke the economy unless we improve efficiency.

 

You keep saying we're going to run out of oil, but they were saying the same kinds of things 75 years ago. I realize that the price of oil is far too "spastic" for comfort as evidenced by last summer's prices, but let's not pretend that inflated CAFE standards are a cure-all for humanity either.

 

I've always wondered if our elected leaders ever consult engineers when they consider CAFE hikes or if they just throw a number at the wall and demand "make it so".

Everyone assumes Volt is going to be GM's CAFE savior, but at the ~$40,000 price tag they're talking about now they won't be able to sell them at even a 1:1 ratio with Corvette....let alone enough to cover Camaros....We're going to be seeing virtually ALL models with hybrid powertrains standard, and we're going to need to see improvement on them as well. Ford touts its 2010 Fusion hybrid as the most efficient in the midsize class, and it's only rated at 41 mpg so it wouldn't even pass....

 

Stupid,stupid,stupid.

CAFE is the wrong way to get from A to B. It is a failure and always has been.

There is simply no way to conserve our way out of dependence on foreign oil.

Change the fuels, not the cars.

 

I also heard on the news this morning that the new requirements for fuel economy and emmisions will effectively raise the price on each car by $1200. Not sure where they came up with that number however. More Cats?

 

I see that Tesla has ratings for both STD (27.5) and CAFE (244). Does anyone know (or have a link to more info on) how they calculate that?

That would be true if that figure (39.9) were the median, but I think it's the mean. In general, if something is called an "average" and the type of average is unspecified (there are three types), then you should assume it's the mean.

 

I'm not saying the oil is going to run out. I'm saying global production will peak. There is still lot of of oil in the ground, but the last 50-33% will be much harder and more expensive to get than the first 33-50%. In the late 1800's you could drill a 100' well and get oil, today they are going down miles.

Once global production peaks prices will climb if demand is still growing. If we can cut demand off by making cars more efficient or make them run on electric for the first 20-40 miles then the price of oil will climb at a slower rate or maybe level off around $100 or what ever price makes electric the price friendly alternative.

Oil is just never going to "run out" though

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

Volt is going to be rated at 100mpg+ Maybe as high as 150mpg for CAFE. With that number you build 1 Volt and 8 LS3 powered Corvettes and Camaros and still meet the 42mpg average (150+(30*8)/9).

So in GM can sell 10,000 Volts, 30,000 Vettes, 50,000 Camaro SS, and still meet the 2016 CAFE.

Cruze, Aveo, Spark, Malibu should all have no problem averaging 42 CAFE by then if not by 2012. Just wait until that 1.4L GDI turbo engine comes out and goes into a lot of cars. GM is already testing more fuel efficient HCCI engines in the Aura

That 41mpg is the EPA rating, not CAFE. I can't find it's CAFE number but my guess is that it is over 50mpg.

This is true, I over simplified it. Although I suspect the median and mean are pretty close just based on knowing what Honda sells.

 

This is kind of my point though. This CAFE standard removes a lot of choices if you're looking to buy a Malibu, for example. The line has to achieve at least 42 mpg, so you're looking at a whole slew of wheezy small turbo engines to power these larger cars. If we were anywhere near a point where a direct injected V6 with great power could get 45 mpg in a Malibu, we wouldn't constantly be having the hybrid/4 cylinder turbo conversation.

There isn't going to be some magic fairy dust that the automakers can sprinkle on their cars to achieve a fleet average of 42 mpg and still give us the types of cars that we, the people of this site anyway, enjoy and are accustomed to seeing. It's going to take a lot of growing pains characterized by less freedom of choice and increased costs passed on to the consumer.

 

Most people want good mileage and reasonable amount of power. I think the 2.4L 6 speed Malibu gives them that. If the CAFE number is about EPA hwy + 20% which is just an educated guess on my part since I can find individual car CAFE ratings. So a 2009 4cyl. Malibu (which is 75% sold) gets a CAFE rating of about 39mpg. If direct injection gets added for 2010 the Malibu might meet CAFE and offer more power than the 2009 car. So I don't know what the problem is?

Malibu hybrid sales will probably surpass V6 sales come 2016. Fusion hybrid is already 35% of Fusions sales. Even if it drops to 20-25% it will still out sell the 3.5L V6 Fusion. When the economy recovers and gas is back up to $4 it is just going to get worse for V6 car sales.

 

Do you have links to these breakdowns? I kind of find it hard to believe that out of every 10 Fusions currently being sold, almost 4 of them are hybrids - at a time when hybrid sales in general are falling (didn't Honda dump its hybrid Accord due to slow sales?)

Put it this way, the 1.4 turbo engine that produces 140 HP doesn't sound like a very enchanting drive in a 3500 pound sedan. It might not matter to a lot of people, but it does to many others, especially if their new car feels slower than their old one.