After sitting glued to my TV watching the Barrett-Jackson auction this weekend (as I have every year since 1999), the thought dawned on me that the market for blue chip 1967-71 Camaros could really be affected with the return of the 5th gen. For the last 6 years they've been astounding, especially SS Z/28s. Never mind the Copo models, just factory Camaros seem to have been going for bigger bucks the last few years. I wonder how people will interpret the values of those cars once a new car with the Camaro nameplate is back on the road in current production.

As a side note, I advise everyone to watch NEXT YEAR's Barrett-Jackson auction, as something tells me the very first 5th gen to roll off the line will be put up for bid, just as they did yesterday with the 2009 Corvette ZR1 that went for $1 million

 

Hmm, not much. Value is perceived and an opinion. So it may go up or down, but it really shouldn't do either.

 

I really can not see it affecting it too much.

 

The ZR1 proceeds were donated to charity, so I dont count that as a real price. Anytime you have billionaire car collectors bidding on a car that will be produced and will have a MSRP sticker and any amount above the sticker price can be deducted as a charitable donation, I dont feel its true market value.

 

Prices have continued to climb even after announcing the Camaro's return. I don't see that changing once they go on sale, especially on restored numbers matching cars.

 

Announcing the return, and having a choice between a 5th gen and a 1st gen is a different story. Ive always wanted a modern 69 camaro. IRS 4 wheel disc. That was my dream to build one some day. Something that looked close to stock but cornered like a BMW. If a 5th gen has close to the looks and was brand new why would someone like me go after a 40 year old car. Its tempting but just because the 69 looks so damned cool.


Anyway, less demand from the 1st gen buyers who just want the look means lower prices. If you want a 69 camaro for instance, Production numbers for 69 was something like 243,085. The surviving cars of that number is the supply. Unless you go with a repo shell that was releases not too long ago anyone who wants one pretty much bids on it against other people who want it. There usually is no other year for people in that market.

I get the feeling if someone like me is no longer competing for that 69 camaro the other person gets it alittle cheaper. Even somewhat affecting numbers matching cars. My 69 had a numbers matching 350 2bbl and thats not even what I wanted.

 

I think they'll continue to go up unless the economy or energy problems affect prices. I think the aftermarket should be hard at work for E85 (etc) conversion kits for classics. I'm really worried that someday I won't be able to enjoy my classics either because of energy concerns or because of more stupid laws (Like CAFE) that have no basis in reality. Hopefully our lobbyists are too good to let the latter happen, and hopefully we can convert our cars (If needed) to some other form of ICE.

I have a theory (And I've thought about purchasing even more classic iron for this very reason) that demand might spike big time in 3-5 years if this CAFE crap goes the way some are predicting (Death of the V8, death of RWD, death of the Camaro, etc.)

Some people even believe it might send the big 3 into bankruptcy because people will be seeking used cars for 1) their size and comfort and 2) their affordability in comparison to new cars.

I, personally, don't think the sky will fall but I'm betting big time on classics to fulfill my driving desire in the future. Once I'm established well, I will not drive a FWD econobox and that's that.

 

Im confused as to how Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) has any bearing on your 35 year old camaro. If anything Emissions and inspection should be a concern.

 

They simply aren't though. Even my '67 RS, which is a simple 327/2bbl powerglide car, has appreciated over 40% in the 4 years I've owned it. However, although I was thinking more along the lines of numbers matching SuperSports and Z/28s, they've all apreciated some. Here in nothern California it is almost impossible to find a solid project car for less than $10k. Four years ago, you could find at least half a dozen every couple of months. As the buildable cars get swallowed up and restored, eventually the only original cars left will be rust buckets. Hence, why they'll continue to appreciate, even with the repo shells and even with a new 5th gen the somewhat looks like a 68-69 Camaro. (They really don't when you place them side by side though.)

I wish it were not the case because I'd love to pick up another project car for cheap. But heck, even a project convertible I came across the other day was going for $20k.

However, like you, I plan on buying a new Camaro and selling all the old junk. (Well maybe selling only one '67, the other will stay in the family by going to my stepson.)

 

I hope it shoots down the values of the 4th gen F-Body's, since those are what I am looking to buy when I graduate college this spring.

 

It doesn't.

Stupid legislation in the same light as CAFE (Such as what you said) would. I was merely using the ignorance factor of CAFE as a comparison.

FWIW, inspection goes out the window in this state when the car hits 35 years old anyway. WOOT!

 

Well are you talking about the concept or preproduction. The concept was too wide and had a chop top. The preproduction moved the greenhouse forward got thinner. this one has the 69 grille too over the concepts braces. much better looking. hood got shorter trunk a little longer







thats kinda my point. For me there are two types of camaros. 69's and everything else. Im sure you feel that way about your 67s. But the fact that you me and people like us dont have to dig through someones woods for a "project convertible" for 20k is what Im talking about. Demand is going to spike for the 5th gen and when it dies down I think it will ease a little more of the first gen market. When I say ease I mean at the very least they wont appreciate like they would have. Maybe Im wrong.

 

You're right in that some people who want to build a first gen Camaro and place modern day components and drivetrain in it might instead buy a fifth gen. However it will not change the market for restored numbers matching original cars, which will continue to appreciate. Furthermore, some folks just prefer the original cars and will continue to hot rod them as well.

The bottom line is, I see no forseeable scenario were prices begin to drop on first gen Camaros. The next to raise in value will be second gens, especially early Supersports and Z28s. The third and fourth gens will continue to depreciate before they begin appreciating as well. The only exception I can see are mint/restored IROCs and SSes.

 

Not sure why you give a thumbs up for someone that bid $1 million for a 2009 Corvette. The money isn't going to GM, Chevrolet, you, or me. It's simply someone with far more money than they know what to do with who is spoiled enough to spend 10 times the likely list price of a car that's not out yet. Would you still give a thumbs up when in 2008 Chevrolet dealers selling the ZR1 tack on a $500,000 plus markup??

As for the 5th gen's effect on Camaro prices, I'd say zilch.

Prices are based on rarity and desirability. Cars from the late 60s early 70s timeframe are high for 2 reasons. First, high performance versions of most cars weren't exactly made in massive quanities. Sure, by today's numbers, it seem massive. But when you look at the percentages of sales, it was actually pretty small. A Z28 that made up 60% of 4th gen sale wasn't anywhere near that horizon back then. Second, cars weren't exactly built to last back then. Rust and plain old wear and tear put most cars of the time in the grave at less than 75K miles. Throw in 38 years of time, and you're looking at a very, very small pool of cars left.

When Camaro returns next year, don't expect your Camaro to jump in value suddenly for that reason. 4th gens are still more plentiful than buyers in many areas. There's still enough 3rd gens that haven't rusted in half to still be very reasonably priced. But 2nd gens that are not only still in one piece, but looking like showroom condition are about as rare as confirmed Bigfoot sightings, so their value is starting to climb.

Of course, there's still that recession that we're looking at over the horizon that will knock out pretty much everyone who isn't sitting on a bagful of cash on bidding cars up. So it's very possible that save for the extremely rare models that rich folks will bid into the stratosphere, more regular models might freeze in appriciation.

 

I hope it crashes and you can't give them away.