It seems like they have 4 or 5 big problems.

1) I heard they may lose $1 a share next year, that's a lot!
2) Health care is eating them up.
3) Pension (their workers get pensions right?)
4) Unions and/or lack of competing unions.
5) Cancelling the F-body. ;-)

I'm not sure how they're going to fix this mess.

 

They're steadily losing market share to Toyota every year. They can't sell cars without incentives. It doesn't seem they have yet to figure out how to design a car to compete with the Camry/Accord/Altima - sorry, the Malibu, Malibu Maxx and Impala don't count. Luckily, they still have the Silverado, and larger SUVs with higher profit margins. Cadillac is seeing increased sales. It will be interesting to see what the Pontiac Solstice/ Saturn SKY do. The Chevy PT Cruiser will flop.

Toyota introduces it's full size pickup in 2007 ( I believe) complete with a diesel engine rumored to produce more power than the Duramax along with V8, and Hybrid options. And with that i think GM will see its long reign at # 1 come to an end.

 

Possible.

It's a red herring. Health care costs are spiraling, but the problem is GM's market share is getting to the point where GM's business model can't survive without a major reconstruction.

Pensions alone aren't the problem.

Unions are convient targets, but it's another red herring. Unions are pretty close to collasping today. Membership is just a fraction of what it used to be (far fewer people assemble far more vehicles today than just 15 years ago, let alone the 1970s!).

Honestly, I'd be surprised if the UAW doesn't fall apart or (becomes marginalized) by the end of the decade. The big 2 are shrinking (meaning less production) and the vehicles taking their place (import lables made here in the US) have workers who refuse to join the UAW and have better relations with their employer. Anyone (inside or outside the UAW) who believes the next round of negotiations are going to result in any gain whatsoever for the UAW without very serious concessions is living in a fantasy land.

The F-body NEEDED to be cancelled. Long story. Read my article in PHR magazine or do a search here.

GM's number 1 problem at the moment is getting new quality products to market, without going through an approval process that's so long and torturous that it's self destructive, past people whose only job at GM seems to be to be petty and territorial to the point whare cars under development can be derailed simply because some mid level executive or manager's ego was bruised, a contracting process that is focused on the cheapest price instead of quality (or at the very least, a decent compromise), and what seems to be the most adversarial position with labor of any US car manufacturer.