Ford exec says April sales ‘terrible’ for industry.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18358116/

 

The major industry forecasting services were predicting a fall-off in sales - the main question was whether it'd happen earlier or later in the year. There are a lot of things going on in the economy that do not lend themselves to increased demand for automobiles, despite what the stock-market gawkers might be saying this week.

 

Many of the corporations that actually posted stellar profits during earnings season, seem to have derived most of those profits from their overseas operations which tend to lag the current direction of US economy by 6-12 months. Not only did many of their profits come from non-American operations, but their foreign originated profits appeared to have been amplified by recent weakness in the US-dollar.

In recent CNBC interview with the CEO of Brunswick Corp. who make everything from bowling ***** to “ultra-luxury” yachts stated their US operations are at the worst level since 2001. The only 3 bright spots were “ultra-luxury” boat/yacht sales within the US, their parts business, and their foreign operations. He stated their boat business outside of the “Ultra-Luxury” yachts have seen a significant decline in sales with Florida leading the way down.

I think the domestic economy is heading (if it hasn't already) into some rough waters and the turbulence will most likely take a few years to work the problems out. By 2009 I would think most of the current problems will behind us and strong domestic growth and opportunites will prevail and it would also be the perfect time to buy a new 2010 Camaro.

 

Not quite as optimistic as you are Johnny.

First, one has to ask why the morgage market is shaky.

Second, I'd ask what effects of the past 6 years of horrendous deficit spending will have on the economy.

Third, I'd have to ask what will the effects of sustained higher fuel costs have on the economy.

Next, with China financing our debt and bankrolling our defict spending (they've essentially become the United States' MasterCard), they pretty much have control over the US economy. Imagine the repercussions if they get really peeved at us and cash in.

Finally, that money pit called Iraq will effect the US economy for many years the way the Vietnam War affected the US economy in the 1970s.

I personally think we're walking on eggshells right now.

The bubble burst in the 70s and we got doubble digit inflation.
A different bubble burst in the 80s, and we had a stock market meltdown
Yet another bubble burst in the 90s, and we had the dot-com collaspe.

I think what we're looking at is alot worse.

 

Gui,

I think the healthcare industry will end up absorbing most of the job losses that will occur over the next few years. The single best benefit of expensive healthcare (if you can consider it one) is there is enough profits in the healthcare industry to be able to pay their employees good salaries.

While I don't want to turn this into a discussion about Iraq but the amount of money that is spent on defense is not as big of a percentage of the GDP as it was in the past.

In fact the biggest danger to the US economy is "non-defense" spending.



Note: this graph ends in 2004, so I'm sure defense spending is higher in 2007, but it's still nowhere near as high as it was in the 1960's, 1970's and 1980's on a percentage basis of the GDP and especially when you accurately adjust the figures for inflation.