I've seen presentations by two GM mid-level executives this week. Both have talked about GM's hybrid roadmap, and neither has shown that the two-mode goes beyond the GMT900s and Thetas. Once the plug-in version of the Vue two-mode launches, it's all E-Flex after that.

Things could change depending on fuel prices, though. It looks like the E-Flex only makes economic sense if gas price really skyrocket (think double digits). If fuel prices only go into the $6/gal range, then traditional HEVs like the Prius and Vue two-mode make the most economic sense.

 

Well let's analyze the cheaper gas theory. In the future there will be more consumers(the population of the world continues to rapidly soar and more places are developing and requiring fuel) and unless something changes dramatically in the near future stagnant production(supplies won't increase much over what they are now) fuel isn't going to get ridiculously cheaper. Unless there is a world war or record famine and disease, the world is only going to get more full of people wanting gas and less gas to go around. Too many people wanting too much of a limited product is not good for the consumer.

 

The Prius is larger than the Aveo. It is shorter than the Corolla, but has more cargo volume and passenger volume.

EPA standards for car size...
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/FEG/info.shtml#sizeclasses

110 Cu Ft is the lowest passenger and cargo volume a midsize car can be. The Prius comes in at 110.6 Cu Ft. Something the like the Malibu, which people would consider a midsized car has 127.9 Cu Ft of space.

The Prius gets its volume from the shape. It is still a very small car.

 

Until the lithium ion batteries become cheaper there is noway GM can produce the volt anywhere near 25k. The prius is sold at a slight loss and the NIcad battery pack technology it has is bought and paid for. GM must make hybrids on a LARGE scale to get the Lithium ion cost down. Maybe even invest in a plant to create them.

 

Not to get off topic too much here, but did I read that right? Your wife's boyfriend?!

 

Best friend.

 

GM is currently looking at a 16kWh pack. The projected price in 2010 for automotive-grade lithium ion cells is around $600/kWh, with a properly cooled, charge-managed, and robust pack costing about $1300/kWh.

That's $20,800 just for the pack.

There's no evidence that Toyota loses money on the Prius.

FWIW, there's a sh*tload of your taxpayer dollars going into the Volt's pack through the DOE's USABC/FreedomCAR program.

There's no good evidence that more volume will bring lower costs, since many of the materials used in automotive cells are already being used by the consumer battery industry. Also keep in mind that commodity prices have generally increased in the past decade, so banking on additional volume bringing about lower prices is not a safe bet.

A123 has made a hell of an investment in their new Chinese facility - some of this came from private equity, some of it came from federal funding (mentioned above), and some of it has come from GM (although it's unclear what sort of formal financial agreements are in place between the two companies).

As for LG Chem and Saft (the other leading contenders for GM's business), they already have a large established manufacturing base. Consider that the consumer products industry will continue to lead the demand for battery manufacturing for the next decade.

 

I can't find a used Prius for sale within 200 miles of me.

 

Thanks for the insight!

 

I've never looked for them, but I know there is not one hybrid Ford Escape on a dealer lot within 100 miles of Albany NY. Hybrid Civics are also hard to come by.

 

 

i have seen quit a few on the road though of each. if you really want one they will get you one.

there all so dam expensive though. i was seriously looking into buying a new hybrid. which if you told me two years ago id be looking into one i would have laughed at you. i cant find one that meets my criteria. there all expensive and the few that i could get cant do what i want them to do. which is tow up to 1000 pounds.

its cheaper for me to get a cobalt then spend an extra 10k on a hybrid and there is no way the savings in gas is going to make up the 10k price difference.


by the way could the packs from the volt be refurbished and used again? (sorry i dont know much about batteries) if so couldn't that cut the cost down of the car by just selling people the car and leasing the batteries?

 

This would be the way to go. The would be two problems with this, however;

1) This would require a government mandate to make this happen and;
2) The gov't would pick the most expensive, and the hardest model to design around, which would probably negate any savings from having interchangeable batteries.

 

The batteries can't really be "refurbished" in the same way that you rebuild an engine. There is no formal plan in place right now to reuse or recycle the battery, but there are some ideas about where the batteries could be used once they no longer provide satisfactory performance in a car (for example, a worn-out Volt pack would really kick *** in a forklift!).

In all likelihood, the required lifetime validation won't be completed when the Volt is launched, and so there may be some sort of lease arrangement put into place. Alternatively, the sales volume of the car could be limited in the first few years of production; this is exactly what Toyota did with the first-gen Prius (Toyota has also had lithium-ion batteries in very low-volume production since 2003 in the Japanese-market Vitz). What you certainly don't want to do is start building 50,000 cars/year with $20,000 battery packs that may or may not work, because you may very well set yourself up for billions of dollars in warranty liability.

 

There is NO WAY I would ever spend $25,000+ for a dang prius (or any other hybrid car) that there is so much to go wrong with (so much electrical junk)...if the battery packs fail then the car is basically worthless. I'll just keep my $1200 96 Ferd Escort until it dies. It gets 32 mpg.