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Any good news on the Horizon....?

Old Sep 7, 2008 | 09:52 PM
  #1  
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Any good news on the Horizon....?

This place is pretty depressing as of late. Seems like we are having a repeat of 1968 forty years later or something.

Last edited by formula79; Sep 7, 2008 at 11:56 PM.
Old Sep 7, 2008 | 11:08 PM
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Originally Posted by formula79
This place is pretty depressing as of late. Seems like we are having a repeat of 1968 thirty years later or something.
Na, it's just a constant repeat of the past four years, which have been depressing enough.

One could have a lot of fun digging up posts from the 2003-2005 timeframe. We could see which vehicles were supposed to save the Detroit 3; we could even try to find out whatever happened to all the folks who were going to buy up GM stock the next time it dipped below $25

I'm sure we'll experience good times again, and we'll know it when we see it. This ain't it.
Old Sep 7, 2008 | 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by formula79
This place is pretty depressing as of late. Seems like we are having a repeat of 1968 thirty years later or something.
Um, this isn't 1998...
Old Sep 7, 2008 | 11:54 PM
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Originally Posted by AdioSS
Um, this isn't 1998...
Haha...I am getting old too fast..

Wow...that means that someone born in 1968 is now 40. I remember in high school having basball cars and all the rookies were born then.

Last edited by formula79; Sep 7, 2008 at 11:57 PM.
Old Sep 7, 2008 | 11:56 PM
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I remember making posts about how the G6 will be an awesome world beater and the 2004 Malibu will take on the Accord.

It is depressing to think that when I bought my 04 Comp G in 2004 it seemed so great and new to me...and the car is dead now.

Originally Posted by Eric Bryant
Na, it's just a constant repeat of the past four years, which have been depressing enough.

One could have a lot of fun digging up posts from the 2003-2005 timeframe. We could see which vehicles were supposed to save the Detroit 3; we could even try to find out whatever happened to all the folks who were going to buy up GM stock the next time it dipped below $25

I'm sure we'll experience good times again, and we'll know it when we see it. This ain't it.
Old Sep 7, 2008 | 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by formula79
This place is pretty depressing as of late. Seems like we are having a repeat of 1968 thirty years later or something.
I'm not sure what happned in 1968, but....


I think Alpha will be great news.

Lots of neat stuff will coming off of Delta (Cruze) and eventually Gamma.

Should be some interesting powertrain developements coming.

The Volt should be cool.

And if there is a silver lining in CAFE and 4 dollar gas, it has to be that we'll finally see cars getting lighter again.
Old Sep 8, 2008 | 12:06 AM
  #7  
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Originally Posted by Z284ever
I'm not sure what happned in 1968, but....
I always considered 1968 the calm right before the storm when the muscle car age dies a few years back.


I think Alpha will be great news.
I will believe this when I see it the way GM is cancelling programs

Lots of neat stuff will coming off of Delta (Cruze) and eventually Gamma.
These cars don't intrest most "enthusiasts"...at least ones that I know.

Should be some interesting powertrain developements coming.
I really would like to see something like the camless engine discussed a few years back.

The Volt should be cool.
The Volt excites me about as much as my Braun razor.

And if there is a silver lining in CAFE and 4 dollar gas, it has to be that we'll finally see cars getting lighter again.
This will be an interesting thing to follow. We all know that safety is what adds a lot of weight to cars. Safety is also probaly the one thing that people are not willing to give up to save on gas milage. I think we will have a lot more compact options out there...but I don't think you will see a big drop in the size vs. weight ratio. That would take expensive new materials..which likely will not be affordable after all the new powertrains are developed.

Last edited by formula79; Sep 8, 2008 at 01:02 AM.
Old Sep 8, 2008 | 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by formula79
This will be an interesting thing to follow. We all know that safety is what adds a lot of weight to cars. Safety is also probaly the one thing that people are not willing to give up to save on gas milage. I think we will have a lot more compact options out there...but I don't think you will see a big drop in the size vs. weight ratio. That would take expensive new materials..which likely will not be affordable after all the new powertrains are developed.
Actually, the new materials and manufacturing techniques ARE coming faster than even I had thought.

Originally Posted by Z284ever
And if there is a silver lining in CAFE and 4 dollar gas, it has to be that we'll finally see cars getting lighter again.
I posted several years ago that I thought the HP war was becoming futile, because the actual performance gain you get going from a 500hp car to a 550hp car is so trivial that nobody would ever feel/know it. You would have to be a driving machine and use stopwatches to validate any difference. Now going from 140hp to 190hp in a street car - whole nuther story!
I was then (and I still am) advocating for weight savings and chassis work to improve performance and economy.

In addition to this POV, there was an article in Automotive Engineering magazine this month about just this topic - looking at weight. They named almost every car company in the article, saying they all have active on-going programs to get weight under control. It will provide instant gains in economy for gas-burners of every kind, BUT it also will extend the range of electrics and hybrids substantially - and THAT is what's driving it as much as anything right now. Reduction in the weight and inertia of all the rotating mass is paramount, as that kills energy right out of the gate having to elevate the kinetic energy and momentum of those parts for motion. Lots of work in shafts, rims, rotors, etc, not to mention pumps for steering and a/c. It's a pretty neat article, and the bottom line is that even if you only get 1-2 pounds out of each area you work on, the total for the whole vehicle adds up pretty nicely. A couple hundred pounds is not so trivial at all when you consider that is AN OCCUPANT that could ride for free!

In reading the article, they eluded to "not allowing weight reduction to affect crash worthiness and safety". It got me thinking. There is a huge difference in collisions between two moving objects versus a moving object and a fixed one (like a bridge abutment for example). In an collision between two moving objects, there is a law of conservation of momentum that governs the crash. There are factors that affect the total transfer or vector addition of the two vehicles' momentum, such as the elastic coefficient and the energy spent in deformation of the vehicles, but overwhelmingly, the two vectors will add into a resultant vector that is not zero (if only for a short time after the collision itself). This equation becomes VERY lopsided when you have a 5000lb vehicle colliding with a 3000lb vehicle. For example, if they are both travelling in opposite directions and have a perfect head-on collision, the vehicle of smaller mass will actually come to an instantaneous stop, and then actually begin accelerating back in the direction from which it was coming as the heavier vehicle's kinetic energy and momentum overcome the lighter vehicle's. (Anybody have the toy with the steel ***** hanging from a sting on their desk? Try dropping 2 ***** together on one side and only oneball on the other side from the same height and get them to collide with perfect timing... the single ball goes for a wild ride!) The acceleration (dv/dt) and the jerk (da/dt) values get greater as the "losing" vehicle gets ever-lighter. These forces are what airbags and safety restraints try to overcome and prevent injury to the occupants.

My whole point here? As the carmakers are more successful at simply getting mass out of the car, they will be even MORE challenged at making the survivability of major crashes with heavier vehicles successful. You can only crumple a vehicle so far before you are into the occupant cage, and you can only slow the vehicle down at a certain rate before you exceed forces that are destructive to human life.

So I'm admitting that even I have underestimated the overall "simplicity" of making all cars lighter... at least until this weekend when I began thinking about the latter-effects of what significantly lighter vehicles will mean. In short, we could very well see an increase in fatalities as the variations in weight of cars on the road increases.
Imagine... a 2013 Camaro that weighs 3200lbs in a head-on collision at 55mph with a 2006 Suburban that weighs 5100lbs... not pretty. Even if the passenger's compartment of the Camaro didn't collapse, imagine the neck-snapping forces that would be present as the Camaro basically came to a stop in just 10-15 feet, then began accelerating back in the direction from which it came as it "bounces" off the front of the Suburban. The SUburban woudl experience crumplezone colapse as planned, and a significant decceleration to near no speed, but would continue in the same direction it was originally travelling at a very slow pace even AFTER the collision. I'd rather be in the Suburban for sure. What about a Smart car versus a Suburban...

I hope you can see my point here. I'm all for weight savings for many reasons, but just getting the weight out of the vehicle will only be the beginning of the bigger picture, and it may not all be a pretty ride on our way to mass-frugality.
Old Sep 8, 2008 | 09:11 AM
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I used to think Zeta would save GM.... Maybe that would have been the case if Zeta came out 6 years sooner.

Good news, like Z284ever said, is cars will now get lighter and GDI will get here sooner thanks to $4 gas. Electric cars are pretty exciting.
Old Sep 8, 2008 | 09:33 AM
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Originally Posted by ProudPony
My whole point here? As the carmakers are more successful at simply getting mass out of the car, they will be even MORE challenged at making the survivability of major crashes with heavier vehicles successful. You can only crumple a vehicle so far before you are into the occupant cage, and you can only slow the vehicle down at a certain rate before you exceed forces that are destructive to human life.
We need to improve pre-crash safety and increase the level of driver education in this country. The vast, vast majority of collisions are preventable, and IMO, the solution to the problem is not the creation of cars that are better at surviving worst-case crashes.

Of course, for the next decade or two, we all have to deal with the MAD approach to crash safety that came about from the marketing of SUVs.
Old Sep 8, 2008 | 09:50 AM
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Good news? The end is near.

Oil prices drop. Gas prices don't. Hybrids and electrics will be here soon.
Old Sep 8, 2008 | 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by ProudPony
Actually, the new materials and manufacturing techniques ARE coming faster than even I had thought.

Tell us more about this, Proud.
Old Sep 8, 2008 | 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by ProudPony
Imagine... a 2013 Camaro that weighs 3200lbs in a head-on collision at 55mph with a 2006 Suburban that weighs 5100lbs... not pretty. Even if the passenger's compartment of the Camaro didn't collapse, imagine the neck-snapping forces that would be present as the Camaro basically came to a stop in just 10-15 feet, then began accelerating back in the direction from which it came as it "bounces" off the front of the Suburban. The SUburban woudl experience crumplezone colapse as planned, and a significant decceleration to near no speed, but would continue in the same direction it was originally travelling at a very slow pace even AFTER the collision. I'd rather be in the Suburban for sure. What about a Smart car versus a Suburban...
If they could get the suburban DOWN TO 5100# I would be surprised! Half ton suburbans have a curbweight over 5500# (that's before the driver, passengers, and a full tank of fuel.) Even the Tahoe is over 5200 pounds.
Old Sep 10, 2008 | 07:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Z284ever
Tell us more about this, Proud.
Sorry for the delayed response Charlie. I lost my modem at the house Saturday and I have spent 2 lunches (Monday and Tuesday) swapping modems with my internet provider, and 2 evenings trying to get it up and going. Just got it working last night after 10pm and payed some bills online, then decided to watch the rest of Star Wars on Spike and go to bed. Apparently our local provider is having a rough time with modems... 3 people came in yesterday while I was there griping about my brand-new-out-of-the-box replacement unit that was no good too. The lady was very nice, and gave me a whole $20 credit on my bill for the inconvenience and trips down there.

ANYWHO... I will try to get some of the neat info together and post here soon.
Today is my B-day so it's going to be a rocket-ride with people at work, lunch, and going out with my family and parents tonight, but I'll get to it I promise!

G

Last edited by ProudPony; Sep 10, 2008 at 07:34 AM.
Old Sep 10, 2008 | 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by ProudPony
Sorry for the delayed response Charlie. I lost my modem at the house Saturday and I have spent 2 lunches (Monday and Tuesday) swapping modems with my internet provider, and 2 evenings trying to get it up and going. Just got it working last night after 10pm and payed some bills online, then decided to watch the rest of Star Wars on Spike and go to bed. Apparently our local provider is having a rough time with modems... 3 people came in yesterday while I was there griping about my brand-new-out-of-the-box replacement unit that was no good too. The lady was very nice, and gave me a whole $20 credit on my bill for the inconvenience and trips down there.

ANYWHO... I will try to get some of the neat info together and post here soon.
Today is my B-day so it's going to be a rocket-ride with people at work, lunch, and going out with my family and parents tonight, but I'll get to it I promise!

G
Happy B-day bro, looking forward to your report.

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