Toyota posts first loss, sees worse ahead

1fastdog
05-08-2009, 11:39 AM
"Toyota Motor, the world's top automaker, announced Friday a 4.4-billion dollar annual loss, its first ever, and warned it would plunge deeper into the red as car sales collapse during the recession.
Toyota lost 765.8 billion yen (7.7 billion dollars) in the quarter to March alone, even more than General Motors, as it idled plants to ride out the biggest crisis in its more than 70-year history.


Company president Katsuaki Watanabe blamed the weak performance on a slump in vehicle sales, particularly in the United States and Europe, as well as a stronger yen and higher raw material costs.

For the business year to March, the group made a net loss of 436.9 billion yen (4.4 billion dollars), worse than its own forecast and a dramatic turnaround from the previous year's record profit of 1.72 trillion yen.

It is the first time that Toyota has finished a year in the red since it started publishing results in 1941.

The company, which dethroned General Motors last year as the world's number one carmaker, logged an annual operating loss of 461.0 billion yen, against a year-earlier profit of 2.27 trillion yen. Revenue slumped 21.9 percent.

The company has actively expanded its global production facilities in recent years to meet brisk demand, particularly for its fuel-efficient cars, leaving it vulnerable to the current collapse in worldwide sales.

The Japanese maker's global sales fell 15 percent to 7.57 million vehicles last year.

It expects an even worse performance in the current business year to March -- a net loss of 550 billion yen and an operating loss of 850 billion yen. Vehicle sales are expected to sink to 6.5 million.

"We believe the current difficulty will persist for a while," said Watanabe, who will soon be replaced by Akio Toyoda, the grandson of the automaker's founder.

While the Chinese and Indian markets are showing signs of recovery, the outlook for most of the world remains uncertain, he said.

The company plans to expand its line up of fuel-sipping hybrid cars and cut costs as part of efforts to return to profit.

Toyota fared even worse in the quarter to March than General Motors, which said Thursday it lost six billion dollars.

The Japanese company has idled plants and slashed thousands of temporary jobs in response to its biggest ever crisis.

Industry analysts say the new president, Toyoda, will probably have to announce more drastic steps when he takes over.

The founder's grandson is seen as someone who can unite the company during the current crisis and take some tough decisions about its future.

Toyota may have to take painful steps such as closing plants and firing regular workers, something that may be easier for the family scion to do, said Credit Suisse auto analyst Koji Endo.

"The founding family is still regarded as a kind of symbol," he said.

Toyota did not announce any new steps Friday to overhaul its operations but said it aimed to reduce costs by 800 billion yen this year.

Further evidence of the industry's woes came from tyre maker Bridgestone, which announced a net loss of 34.9 billion yen for the three months to March, the first quarter of its business year."

JakeRobb
05-08-2009, 11:43 AM
I'm torn on this news.

I don't want anyone in the auto industry to suffer, but maybe this will help remove Toyota's undeserved halo of high public opinion.

El Duce
05-08-2009, 11:48 AM
I'm torn on this news.

I don't want anyone in the auto industry to suffer, but maybe this will help remove Toyota's undeserved halo of high public opinion.

How is it "undeserved?" Look at JD Power, Consumer Reports, etc. Some of the praise heaped upon them in particular stories was underserved, but lets not kid ourselves and act like the products GM was putting out over the last 20 years were on par.

1fastdog
05-08-2009, 11:49 AM
I'm torn on this news.

I don't want anyone in the auto industry to suffer, but maybe this will help remove Toyota's undeserved halo of high public opinion.

If only.

Some will undoubtedly blame George Bush, AIG, and hedgefunds for Toyota's problems...:lol:;):lol::

The bottom line is too many cars, too few buyers.

Toyota can cut production without the costs the domestics have to consider.

There is some chance of "loss of face" in this. Not the loss of face the Chinese would refer to a "lian" but rather what they would call "mianzi".

Chuck!
05-08-2009, 12:43 PM
That's a lot of pressure on Akio. I wonder if he'll reverse the trend of trying to make Toyota seem American.

JakeRobb
05-08-2009, 02:27 PM
How is it "undeserved?" Look at JD Power, Consumer Reports, etc. Some of the praise heaped upon them in particular stories was underserved, but lets not kid ourselves and act like the products GM was putting out over the last 20 years were on par.

I don't know how JD Power does their surveys, but Consumer Reports only surveys subscribers, so they are in effect a self-fulfilling prophecy. The people responding to the survey about their opinion on Toyota are the same people who bought a Toyota based on CR's past recommendation and who love their Toyota because CR told them it's the best.

Of those people who have an opinion about Toyota at all, the majority of them think that Toyota makes perfect, flawless cars that get the best gas mileage, have the highest quality, have the best safety ratings, never need recalls, etc etc.

This is true regardless of what GM was doing 20 years ago.

So, their halo of high public opinion is undeserved for a couple of reasons:

First, Toyotas don't necessarily get the highest gas mileage, don't necessarily have the highest quality, etc. I'm sure there are some cases where Toyota's entry tops the charts in a legitimate way, but didn't we all just read the news about Equinox getting 32mpg highway, while RAV4 gets 28? And haven't we all read about all of the quality issues Tundra owners are having, on things that Silverado/F150/Ram owners have taken for granted for decades?

Second, as I described above, Consumer Reports results don't tell the whole story. Worse, their subscribers either don't know or don't care. Regardless, CR's ratings are often used in marketing materials, and so they reach an even broader audience than CR's subscriber base (which is already quite large). Basically, it only takes one positive review in CR, plus some time for the opinion to spread among its subscribers, and eventually the whole world will be convinced that the product in question is the best, hands down, even years after the initial positive review.

El Duce
05-08-2009, 02:41 PM
I don't know how JD Power does their surveys, but Consumer Reports only surveys subscribers, so they are in effect a self-fulfilling prophecy. The people responding to the survey about their opinion on Toyota are the same people who bought a Toyota based on CR's past recommendation and who love their Toyota because CR told them it's the best.

Of those people who have an opinion about Toyota at all, the majority of them think that Toyota makes perfect, flawless cars that get the best gas mileage, have the highest quality, have the best safety ratings, never need recalls, etc etc.

This is true regardless of what GM was doing 20 years ago.

So, their halo of high public opinion is undeserved for a couple of reasons:

First, Toyotas don't necessarily get the highest gas mileage, don't necessarily have the highest quality, etc. I'm sure there are some cases where Toyota's entry tops the charts in a legitimate way, but didn't we all just read the news about Equinox getting 32mpg highway, while RAV4 gets 28? And haven't we all read about all of the quality issues Tundra owners are having, on things that Silverado/F150/Ram owners have taken for granted for decades?

Second, as I described above, Consumer Reports results don't tell the whole story. Worse, their subscribers either don't know or don't care. Regardless, CR's ratings are often used in marketing materials, and so they reach an even broader audience than CR's subscriber base (which is already quite large). Basically, it only takes one positive review in CR, plus some time for the opinion to spread among its subscribers, and eventually the whole world will be convinced that the product in question is the best, hands down, even years after the initial positive review.


Well all that is quite obvious, but the perception (even if inflated) is a result of the facts on the ground. Are they perfect? . . . absolutely not. We know that as car guys, but 95% of people who drive cars aren't car people. The perception may not be accuracte, but it is reprentative of an overall trend, and I would think that most objective people could recognize that over the last 2 decades, Toyota tended to put out a superior product than its GM counterpart and to most of the other competition save maybe Honda. It's a lot like the NY Yankees. They have 26 world championships and everybody thinks they're the cat's meow, but people who actually watch baseball would note that over the last decade they haven't been all that. Perception matters. It may not be accurate, but much like stereotypes, they exist for a reason.

JakeRobb
05-08-2009, 03:07 PM
Well all that is quite obvious, but the perception (even if inflated) is a result of the facts on the ground. Are they perfect? . . . absolutely not. We know that as car guys, but 95% of people who drive cars aren't car people. The perception may not be accuracte, but it is reprentative of an overall trend, and I would think that most objective people could recognize that over the last 2 decades, Toyota tended to put out a superior product than its GM counterpart and to most of the other competition save maybe Honda.

The most recent stats out of Toyota indicate that their quality has been falling, slowly but steadily, for a couple of years.

GM and Toyota are treated like opposites. GM does something good, it gets swept under the rug. GM does something bad, public opinion reflects it immediately. Toyota does something good, everybody and their brother sings it from the mountaintops for the next forty years. Toyota does something bad, it gets swept under the rug.

Public opinion of GM (the products the build, not the company) is much more negative than they currently deserve, and public opinion of Toyota is much more positive than they currently deserve.

El Duce
05-08-2009, 03:17 PM
The most recent stats out of Toyota indicate that their quality has been falling, slowly but steadily, for a couple of years.

GM and Toyota are treated like opposites. GM does something good, it gets swept under the rug. GM does something bad, public opinion reflects it immediately. Toyota does something good, everybody and their brother sings it from the mountaintops for the next forty years. Toyota does something bad, it gets swept under the rug.

Public opinion of GM (the products the build, not the company) is much more negative than they currently deserve, and public opinion of Toyota is much more positive than they currently deserve.

It takes more than a few years to change 20+ years of bad car making. That, and the fact the we the taxpayers have given billions upon billions of dollars to them has plenty to do with the current perception, as well as it should. And that's not even going into the view that half of Americans have of unions, in particular the UAW.

Threxx
05-08-2009, 03:36 PM
I've mentioned the whole 'self fulfilling prophecy' thing about CR in the past (in fact I think that's my line Jake used:p) but JD Power does their surveys right, at least in regards to the scope of their sample.

Toyota's rep is definitely NOT undeserved, even if it MIGHT be an inaccurate representation of present day offerings... that's whta reputations are all about. If a chick is a whore her entire HS and college career and one day legitimately decides to come clean and stop sleeping around she can't really expect everyone to instantly recognize that face.

And right now while I agree Toyota's quality has been slipping on some products, it's certainly not slipping on all products, and right now I'm unconvinced that GM is really doing as good of a job of producing long term durable quality as I had been thinking and hoping during 2008 and early 2009. I'm seeing too many problems out of the cars that they've been wearing as the halos of their quality like the CTS and Aura. Those cars so far appear to be average, at best, for quality, even though they both (especially the CTS) appear very solidly made on the surface.

JakeRobb
05-08-2009, 04:45 PM
It takes more than a few years to change 20+ years of bad car making.

The turnaround started, IMO, in ~2005 with the original CTS, among others. It was my hope that by now, people clinging to GM's bad reputation would be a large minority, rather than a large majority. How long should it take?

That, and the fact the we the taxpayers have given billions upon billions of dollars to them has plenty to do with the current perception, as well as it should. And that's not even going into the view that half of Americans have of unions, in particular the UAW.
Note in my previous post that I specifically mentioned the perception of the product, not the company. It bugs me that people will ignore the merits of a product simply because they are unhappy with the corporate entity that produces them. I understand if they don't want to actually purchase the vehicles, but to go around spouting off about how they're inferior when they aren't is not cool, IMO.

I've mentioned the whole 'self fulfilling prophecy' thing about CR in the past (in fact I think that's my line Jake used:p) but JD Power does their surveys right, at least in regards to the scope of their sample.

Yeah, I borrowed your phrase. :D Very appropriately worded, IMO. Thanks for the feedback on JD Power.

Route66Wanderer
05-08-2009, 04:47 PM
This is not an issue of quality or lack of it. This is simply a reflection of how truly horrible the automotive market is right now and any automaker loosing money is bad news all around.

Toyota will make it through the storm but the storm is certainly not over yet.

flowmotion
05-08-2009, 06:43 PM
True, but Toyota arguably expanded way too fast. They have many new plants around the world that are under-utilized. Exhibit A is the Tundra plant in Texas.

(I blame the hedgefunds ;))

CaminoLS6
05-08-2009, 08:12 PM
I'm very pleased that Toyota is taking a hit, I hope it gets worse for them rather than better.

bossco
05-08-2009, 09:22 PM
It takes more than a few years to change 20+ years of bad car making. That, and the fact the we the taxpayers have given billions upon billions of dollars to them has plenty to do with the current perception, as well as it should. And that's not even going into the view that half of Americans have of unions, in particular the UAW.


The japanese government has given toyota billions upon billions as well to assist in the development of new technology, the same can be said for probably just about every major auto manufacturer in the world.

How is it something the rest of the world engages in on a regular basis is tantamount to kiddie snuff films here?

El Duce
05-08-2009, 10:43 PM
The japanese government has given toyota billions upon billions as well to assist in the development of new technology, the same can be said for probably just about every major auto manufacturer in the world.

How is it something the rest of the world engages in on a regular basis is tantamount to kiddie snuff films here?

Because we're Americans. We weren't designed that way.

Caps94ZODG
05-08-2009, 11:37 PM
The most recent stats out of Toyota indicate that their quality has been falling, slowly but steadily, for a couple of years.

GM and Toyota are treated like opposites. GM does something good, it gets swept under the rug. GM does something bad, public opinion reflects it immediately. Toyota does something good, everybody and their brother sings it from the mountaintops for the next forty years. Toyota does something bad, it gets swept under the rug.

Public opinion of GM (the products the build, not the company) is much more negative than they currently deserve, and public opinion of Toyota is much more positive than they currently deserve.

Somehow some people dont get that...I mean I have yet to hear about Toyotas trucks being rust magnets, plus other problems...yet a small problem in any domestic truck its on the 5.11.and every TV bumper..

bossco
05-09-2009, 10:20 AM
Because we're Americans. We weren't designed that way.

Apparently :rolleyes: It seems we are innately designed to implode our economy by making sure everybody else has a competitive advantage over our domestic companies.

Normally, if the economy was healthy I'd be inclined to agree with you, but its not and I can't see where handing out all the aces to foreign competitiors is in some fashion a winning scenario?

formula79
05-09-2009, 01:11 PM
If anything this proves that GM was not mismanaged..but rather a victim of the worst downturn in the automarket this generation. If Toyota had GM's legacy costs and did not have years of profit from currency manipulation they would be screwed too.

The current automarket is a doomsday scenerio that there is no plan for because it is almost unsurvivable.

Blue89Bird
05-09-2009, 02:09 PM
quite frankly I hope that they post record losses for the next year or two to smack them off of their pedestal and people realize that they're not gods gift to the auto industry.

97z28/m6
05-09-2009, 02:30 PM
If anything this proves that GM was not mismanaged..but rather a victim of the worst downturn in the automarket this generation.:think:

they were losing money before the downturn....

Threxx
05-09-2009, 04:11 PM
quite frankly I hope that they post record losses for the next year or two to smack them off of their pedestal and people realize that they're not gods gift to the auto industry.

Last I heard, people don't judge product quality based on whether a company is making record profits or not. In fact to an extent some people may begin to wonder about the value they're receiving for their dollar when a company is making cash hand over fist.

If anything this proves that GM was not mismanaged..but rather a victim of the worst downturn in the automarket this generation.

So GM wasn't mismanaged... this is all just stuff outside of their control?:lol:

Funny, I thought it was sort of a combination of things. Some directly GM's fault, some indirectly GM's fault or due to a lack of preparation, and other things almost completely outside of their control. This is the equivalent to having your house's roof cave in during a storm, complaining to your builder, and having him tell you that he heard your neighbor's roof sprung a small leak during the same storm so that proves it's the storm's fault, not his fault. The storm is to be expected. How well prepared you are for it is up to you and your decisions.

Z28x
05-09-2009, 06:16 PM
If anything this proves that GM was not mismanaged..but rather a victim of the worst downturn in the automarket this generation. If Toyota had GM's legacy costs and did not have years of profit from currency manipulation they would be screwed too.

The current automarket is a doomsday scenerio that there is no plan for because it is almost unsurvivable.

6 slow months of sales should put a company out of business. That is what would have happened if the Gov't didn't step in. GM was losing money or making very little during some of the best boom years of the industry.

shadydavy 95 TA
05-09-2009, 06:39 PM
Self-fulfilling prophecy, eh?

I see your point on the CR reviews...but how come GM vehicles get such poor reviews if the review is from a person who actually bought GM? Is it a case of Toyota buyers raving about their car while the Chevrolet buyer complains about theirs (and both buyers are CR subscribers)? Because if so, it's not really self-fulfilling after all.

Now if a buyer shops three or four different makes, buys a Toyota, then trashes the cars he didn't buy/doesn't actually own...yeah, that's unfair and a garbage method of providing reviews on autos. And I can see why CR would be considered propaganda...including than the whole "XXXXXX has a reputation for quality so their new models get five stars" controversy.

flowmotion
05-09-2009, 07:25 PM
Apparently :rolleyes: It seems we are innately designed to implode our economy by making sure everybody else has a competitive advantage over our domestic companies.

Normally, if the economy was healthy I'd be inclined to agree with you, but its not and I can't see where handing out all the aces to foreign competitiors is in some fashion a winning scenario?

Bah, the government gave the Big Three billions in the 1990s to develop hybrid technologies, putting us ahead of the Japanese.

And the only thing we got for it was "There's no market", "'Everyone' wants SUVs" and "Please don't close our CAFE loopholes".

Now, if I'm handing out Government R&D money, I'm going conclude that Biotech or Aerospace is a better bet because the auto industry just wants to keep making low-technology "metal".

Threxx
05-10-2009, 02:28 AM
Self-fulfilling prophecy, eh?

I see your point on the CR reviews...but how come GM vehicles get such poor reviews if the review is from a person who actually bought GM? Is it a case of Toyota buyers raving about their car while the Chevrolet buyer complains about theirs (and both buyers are CR subscribers)? Because if so, it's not really self-fulfilling after all.

Now if a buyer shops three or four different makes, buys a Toyota, then trashes the cars he didn't buy/doesn't actually own...yeah, that's unfair and a garbage method of providing reviews on autos. And I can see why CR would be considered propaganda...including than the whole "XXXXXX has a reputation for quality so their new models get five stars" controversy.

Person buys a GM vehicle while being aware of CR but not giving them much credit. Person has horrible experience with GM vehicle and says "I wish I'd listened to CR... I'm going to start reading". CR sends that person a survey, they confirm their GM was a POS just like CR told them it would be. Person then buys a Toyota and continues to fill out CR surveys until (and if) they have a bad enough experience with their Toyota to decide CR is a bunch of crap.

Basically people are going to believe the results that somewhat mirror what they have experienced in real life. So if you poll those people they are going to, on average, give you results that are similar to the results you already publish.

formula79
05-11-2009, 01:00 AM
So GM wasn't mismanaged... this is all just stuff outside of their control?:lol:

Funny, I thought it was sort of a combination of things. Some directly GM's fault, some indirectly GM's fault or due to a lack of preparation, and other things almost completely outside of their control. This is the equivalent to having your house's roof cave in during a storm, complaining to your builder, and having him tell you that he heard your neighbor's roof sprung a small leak during the same storm so that proves it's the storm's fault, not his fault. The storm is to be expected. How well prepared you are for it is up to you and your decisions.


The problem is, GM is paying the piper now for decisions made 30 years ago in terms of union contracts. Essentially decisions were made then by management, the UAW, and the government that would not allow GM the flexability and profitability needed to survive a sudden 50% drop in the market for several months.

My personal opinion is that I don't think that the GM of the last 5-6 years was "mismanaged" from a prouduct perspective. The product we have on the road is great..and I think 30 years from now we will consider it a golden age. GM factories are some of the most efficiant in the world, the quality is there to go toe to toe with anyone. The concessions the current GM management got from the UAW *before* the bailout were undreamable 10 years ago.

Many of the bad decisions were made with the goal of being as profitable as possible (too much investment in SUV's), or under pure duress (selling and seperating off GMAC because otherwise it could not get capital).

ProudPony
05-12-2009, 03:56 PM
"Toyota Motor, the world's top automaker... lost 765.8 billion yen (7.7 billion dollars) in the quarter to March alone, even more than General Motors, as it idled plants to ride out the biggest crisis in its more than 70-year history. "

I'm sorry folks... I've read the entire article and a couple others from other news agencies in the last few days. It's really depressing and all that. But I simply can't get over one of the tiniest little details in the article...

How is it that an AMERICAN car company that makes AMERICAN cars in AMERICA is reporting their income in Japanese YEN?
I really need someone to explain this to me. See, I thought that AMERICAN products , made in AMERICA, by AMERICANS should be reported-on in DOLLARS. :shrug:

I didn't offer to pay for my Toyota in Yen?
I don't send my payments to Japan?
So how is it that my money/support for American Toyotas is being reported out of Tokyo, and the units are in Japanese currency?:confused:

Somebody better try REAL hard to convinnce me that the money I spend on a Toyota STAYS in America. :think:

Another good article on Toyota...
Toyota Falls on Dividend Cut, Second Loss Forecast (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aG0ilzT0gZxw)
"May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp., Japan’s biggest carmaker, fell the most in almost four months in Tokyo trading after cutting its annual dividend for the first time and predicting a loss for a second year in a row.

Toyota dropped 190 yen, or 4.8 percent, to close at 3,790 yen on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The shares have gained 33 percent this year.

The automaker’s loss may widen to 550 billion yen ($5.6 billion) for the year ending March 2010, from a loss of 436.9 billion yen a year earlier. Incoming President Akio Toyoda has been tapped to revive sales and cut costs as rising unemployment and falling wages in the U.S., Europe and Japan sap car sales. "

NOW FOR MY PARTING SALVO...
This is a PREDICTION... If Toyota does not begin drastically cutting their workforce and closing plants immediately, they will suffer a far worse ultimate fall than Ford or GM has. WHY MY COMMENT? Please follow...
1) Toyota is huge on giving people jobs for life. They invest heavily into their training and education in the TPS, and don't want it to "walk away" (especially into the hands of another company). Hence, they are reluctant to cut people.
1A) Toyota is prime Asian culture material. They see downturns as opportunities to prepare for growth and expansion. That is contracdictory to what Wall Street and the Nikkei think a depression/recession is all about.
2) Toyota has not known anything but "growth" for decades. Their management is in uncharted territory, and they have no proven track record of knowing how to deal with a severe downward trend, much less a total drop-off in production.
3) They have a huge head of steam - like a heavy ship at sea. Their momentum is going to carry them way past the point where they shut off the power, and I personally don't think they have shut it off yet (at least not enough). You are about to see lots full of Toyotas with rebates on the windows and low/no interest like you have never seen before.
4) Growing Pains... PERIOD. We are seeing quality issues like never before. Recalls like never before. The spin-masters are going to have a harder time keeping bad news under wraps as the volumes continue to increase. Throw in the cost-cutting measures being required by today's economy, and we are heading for some ugly problems in the next few years due to cost-cutting today.

In short, GM, Ford, and Chrysler have known they were in trouble for a while now and have been changing things to get "better". Toyota is plowing forward grabbing market share like crazy, not thinking they had a problem at all - it was the "American car companies and their dependence on trucks and SUVs that got them into trouble". Toyota has not really even begun to change anything yet to adjust their positions in the market... they are "behind" in making market adjustments IMO, and they will be behind in the recovery because of it.

Bottom line - every empire in history has crumbled. That's the down-side to being on the top... nowhere to go but down. My hunch is, their trip down may be faster than many believe at this time. So there it is... my words, written in black and white. Let's sit back and see what happens.

Bearcat Steve
05-12-2009, 04:14 PM
I'm sorry folks... I've read the entire article and a couple others from other news agencies in the last few days. It's really depressing and all that. But I simply can't get over one of the tiniest little details in the article...

How is it that an AMERICAN car company that makes AMERICAN cars in AMERICA is reporting their income in Japanese YEN?
I really need someone to explain this to me. See, I thought that AMERICAN products , made in AMERICA, by AMERICANS should be reported-on in DOLLARS. :shrug:

I didn't offer to pay for my Toyota in Yen?
I don't send my payments to Japan?
So how is it that my money/support for American Toyotas is being reported out of Tokyo, and the units are in Japanese currency?:confused:

Somebody better try REAL hard to convinnce me that the money I spend on a Toyota STAYS in America. :think:

Another good article on Toyota...
Toyota Falls on Dividend Cut, Second Loss Forecast (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aG0ilzT0gZxw)
"May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp., Japan’s biggest carmaker, fell the most in almost four months in Tokyo trading after cutting its annual dividend for the first time and predicting a loss for a second year in a row.

Toyota dropped 190 yen, or 4.8 percent, to close at 3,790 yen on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The shares have gained 33 percent this year.

The automaker’s loss may widen to 550 billion yen ($5.6 billion) for the year ending March 2010, from a loss of 436.9 billion yen a year earlier. Incoming President Akio Toyoda has been tapped to revive sales and cut costs as rising unemployment and falling wages in the U.S., Europe and Japan sap car sales. "

NOW FOR MY PARTING SALVO...
This is a PREDICTION... If Toyota does not begin drastically cutting their workforce and closing plants immediately, they will suffer a far worse ultimate fall than Ford or GM has. WHY MY COMMENT? Please follow...
1) Toyota is huge on giving people jobs for life. They invest heavily into their training and education in the TPS, and don't want it to "walk away" (especially into the hands of another company). Hence, they are reluctant to cut people.
1A) Toyota is prime Asian culture material. They see downturns as opportunities to prepare for growth and expansion. That is contracdictory to what Wall Street and the Nikkei think a depression/recession is all about.
2) Toyota has not known anything but "growth" for decades. Their management is in uncharted territory, and they have no proven track record of knowing how to deal with a severe downward trend, much less a total drop-off in production.
3) They have a huge head of steam - like a heavy ship at sea. Their momentum is going to carry them way past the point where they shut off the power, and I personally don't think they have shut it off yet (at least not enough). You are about to see lots full of Toyotas with rebates on the windows and low/no interest like you have never seen before.
4) Growing Pains... PERIOD. We are seeing quality issues like never before. Recalls like never before. The spin-masters are going to have a harder time keeping bad news under wraps as the volumes continue to increase. Throw in the cost-cutting measures being required by today's economy, and we are heading for some ugly problems in the next few years due to cost-cutting today.

In short, GM, Ford, and Chrysler have known they were in trouble for a while now and have been changing things to get "better". Toyota is plowing forward grabbing market share like crazy, not thinking they had a problem at all - it was the "American car companies and their dependence on trucks and SUVs that got them into trouble". Toyota has not really even begun to change anything yet to adjust their positions in the market... they are "behind" in making market adjustments IMO, and they will be behind in the recovery because of it.

Bottom line - every empire in history has crumbled. That's the down-side to being on the top... nowhere to go but down. My hunch is, their trip down may be faster than many believe at this time. So there it is... my words, written in black and white. Let's sit back and see what happens.

It matters not which currency is used to report earnings. Toyota USA reports their earnings to the U.S. Government and pays taxes in U.S. dollars. The parent company is headquartered in Japan so the publicly traded Toyota reports their earnings in Japanese Yen. Pretty simple.

As for where does the money go, again the answer is quite simple. It goes to the stockholders. If you want to buy shares of Toyota, you certainly may do so and you thusly share in the profits.

As I have pointed out before, the notion of an "American" car company or a "foreign" car company is merely a quaint vestige of the past and truly has no real meaning within the context of a global company.

Lastly, regarding the demise of Toyota, their cash position as well as cash flow as differentiated from profit, will keep them in good stead long after I take my last breath on this planet.

Route66Wanderer
05-12-2009, 04:40 PM
How is it that an AMERICAN car company that makes AMERICAN cars in AMERICA is reporting their income in Japanese YEN?
I really need someone to explain this to me. See, I thought that AMERICAN products , made in AMERICA, by AMERICANS should be reported-on in DOLLARS. :shrug:
Toyota makes cars in the U.S. and other locations in the world. It's world headquarters are in Japan and under accounting rules, when Toyota reports its financial results it reports in yen.

GM makes cars in the U.S. and other locations in the world. It's world headquarters are in the U.S. and under accounting rules, when GM reports its financial results it reports in U.S. dollars.

So what?

The cars made by both companies in the U.S. are made in the U.S. and those that are not; are not.

On a related topic, Automotive News is now reporting that GM plans to start importing cars made in China to sell in the U.S.

LINK: http://www.autonews.com/article/20090511/ANA02/905119971/1131

I'm not sure I'd throw too many stones at Toyota and as I said in an earlier post in this thread; this is not a time to be rejoicing over any car company's losses.

ProudPony
05-12-2009, 04:44 PM
My personal opinion is that I don't think that the GM of the last 5-6 years was "mismanaged" from a prouduct perspective. The product we have on the road is great..and I think 30 years from now we will consider it a golden age. GM factories are some of the most efficiant in the world, the quality is there to go toe to toe with anyone. The concessions the current GM management got from the UAW *before* the bailout were undreamable 10 years ago.

Many of the bad decisions were made with the goal of being as profitable as possible (too much investment in SUV's), or under pure duress (selling and seperating off GMAC because otherwise it could not get capital).

Your opinion respectfully accepted. And I agree GM has done some great things like their dominance in China and the rebirth of Caddy for example.

However...
My opinion is that throwing tens-of-millions into a development, showing it to the public, and cancelling the project when it is days from Job-1 date is poor management. Offering 2, 3, or even 4 versions of the same basic car under various names and plastic skins is poor management. Offer 1 and do it well... don't waste the developmental costs on doing 4 cosmetic variations of the same vehicle under different badges. As for market trends... how many SUVs does one brand/company need to offer? Escalade, Denali, Yukon, Suburban, Tahoe... put them all on the opposite end of a football field and stare at them. :shrug:

I know these are just my ramblings, but in my humble opinion, GM has in fact been mis-managed for the last decade and was long overdue for a major rebuild. We can easily see some great successes like Caddy's turnaround and the G8, but let's be honest with ourselves and make a pereto with successes and failures and see which one is more heavily loaded. Aztek. SSR. The whole Geo thing. Saturn's slide. The Fiat fiasco. etc. etc. I hope (sincerely and in a polite way) that you can see where I am coming from on this. It's not just the quality of the upholstery material in the 2009 Acadia that I am basing my decision on... it's the whole ball game over the last 10-15 years. It simply hasn't been all that it could have been.

ProudPony
05-12-2009, 04:48 PM
It matters not which currency is used to report earnings. Toyota USA reports their earnings to the U.S. Government and pays taxes in U.S. dollars. The parent company is headquartered in Japan so the publicly traded Toyota reports their earnings in Japanese Yen. Pretty simple.

As for where does the money go, again the answer is quite simple. It goes to the stockholders. If you want to buy shares of Toyota, you certainly may do so and you thusly share in the profits.

As I have pointed out before, the notion of an "American" car company or a "foreign" car company is merely a quaint vestige of the past and truly has no real meaning within the context of a global company.
I want to buy some of your glasses.

Lastly, regarding the demise of Toyota, their cash position as well as cash flow as differentiated from profit, will keep them in good stead long after I take my last breath on this planet.
So said the public of Enron, Arthur Andersen, Ma-Bell, and Standard Oil too.
Be careful of your impulses. ;)

ProudPony
05-12-2009, 05:03 PM
To anyone who may have read my earlier post regarding the yen...
I was not really wanting someone to describe why they use the yen or how important it is/is not. I was being facetious.
I actually know pretty well how companies report their incomes. I'm over 17 now and I finished my economics class with pretty decent grades. :lol:


Now back to the serious stuff...
Toyota makes cars in the U.S. and other locations in the world. It's world headquarters are in Japan and under accounting rules, when Toyota reports its financial results it reports in yen.

GM makes cars in the U.S. and other locations in the world. It's world headquarters are in the U.S. and under accounting rules, when GM reports its financial results it reports in U.S. dollars.

So what?

The cars made by both companies in the U.S. are made in the U.S. and those that are not; are not.

On a related topic, Automotive News is now reporting that GM plans to start importing cars made in China to sell in the U.S.

LINK: http://www.autonews.com/article/20090511/ANA02/905119971/1131

I'm not sure I'd throw too many stones at Toyota and as I said in an earlier post in this thread; this is not a time to be rejoicing over any car company's losses.

My point is that it DOES matter where the money is "claimed" for income and taxation. Let the dollar fall against the yen by 5%-10% and see "so what".

I will become one of the most anti-GM critics ever if they decide to blatantly design, develop, and build GM cars in China and ship them here for retail sale. It flies in the face of everything they have stood for for years. "The Heartbeat of America"... "Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie, and Chevrolet"...
Any of this ringing with anyone? Beyond a "bad" decision IMO... a terminal decision.

Lastly, I'm not throwing a single stone at Toyota. I stated FACTS to back up an opinion. My job is funded by money from almost every OEM making a car or truck. I don't want to see any of them go down. But I also think Toyota has a holier-than-thou attitude that is quickly coming home to roost on them.
Please see the difference... I am not wishing them failure, as an insider I'm trying to describe the forrest I see behind the tree we are discussing.

Route66Wanderer
05-12-2009, 05:11 PM
To anyone who may have read my earlier post regarding the yen...
I was not really wanting someone to describe why they use the yen or how important it is/is not. I was being facetious.
I actually know pretty well how companies report their incomes. I'm over 17 now and I finished my economics class with pretty decent grades. :lol:


Now back to the serious stuff...


My point is that it DOES matter where the money is "claimed" for income and taxation. Let the dollar fall against the yen by 5%-10% and see "so what".

I will become one of the most anti-GM critics ever if they decide to blatantly design, develop, and build GM cars in China and ship them here for retail sale. It flies in the face of everything they have stood for for years. "The Heartbeat of America"... "Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie, and Chevrolet"...
Any of this ringing with anyone? Beyond a "bad" decision IMO... a terminal decision.

Lastly, I'm not throwing a single stone at Toyota. I stated FACTS to back up an opinion. My job is funded by money from almost every OEM making a car or truck. I don't want to see any of them go down. But I also think Toyota has a holier-than-thou attitude that is quickly coming home to roost on them.
Please see the difference... I am not wishing them failure, as an insider I'm trying to describe the forrest I see behind the tree we are discussing.
The profits any company makes from their business conducted in the U.S. (it doesn't even matter where the merchandise is made) are assessed U.S. Income Taxes; it has nothing to do with where their world headquarters is located or what currency they report use in reporting their annual financial results.

El Duce
05-12-2009, 05:16 PM
I will become one of the most anti-GM critics ever if they decide to blatantly design, develop, and build GM cars in China and ship them here for retail sale. It flies in the face of everything they have stood for for years. "The Heartbeat of America"... "Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie, and Chevrolet"...
Any of this ringing with anyone?

Uh no. It's an archaic line of thinking that hasn't been factually correct in almost 30 years, and that's probably being generous. The Big 3 love to play on the patriotic heartstrings of the American public, but the arguement is hollow.