What if............

Throwing this out for discussion.

The linchpin of GM's restructuring is incorperating it's worldwide engineering and design to avoid overlap and to save alot of money.

Saturn is essentially becoming a US distributer of Opel. There will be unique models such as the Outlook that won't be sold over in Opel dealers in Europe, but the rest of the line will pretty much be identical, right down to the grilles.

Saab is now made everywhere except Sweden (Cadillac's BLS is made at GM's Sweeded plant).



What if you have a passenger car division (like, say....Pontiac). You have a successful model (the G6) and a car that's an established FWD volume car (say the Grand Prix), that's going to sell 120K plus per year as long as you keep it relevent. You want a GTO that you only expect to sell 15-20K per year. This division is going to be rolled in with another (Buick) that has a pricey flagship sedan (Lecerne) that represents what that name is about. You also need a sedan that defines this division (Pontiac) as an excitement division, and RWD is what you need, perhaps only about 30-40K of 'em annually.

Now recently (within the past few years) you have just spent a vault full of money expanding a plant (say in Australia) to make a bewildering variety of models off of the same chassis. You then decided to cancel this because it was too much to demand, and layed off a number of people. But you still had all this extra capacity that was made to produce SUVs, small trucks, etc.. But you decided instead to use small SUVs and trucks, etc... from what you already will produce in the United States. This plant will begin manufacturing sedans for it's traditional markets (Australia, New Zealand, and the Middle East), but still has excess capacity of perhaps 40K or so annually.



Add to this:

a) This brand (Pontiac) isn't going to be phased out.
b) This plant (in Australia) is expected to ramp up to full capacity within a year or so of it's new model (the VE), even though just sedans are scheduled)
c) This new model (the VE) will probally have a life span of about 4 years before it's replaced by the US version of this chassis.
d) The US version of this chassis's sedan is comitted to 1 division (say Chevrolet) for at least 1 and maybe 2 years before it goes to other divisions.

Noteworthy items:
1. 2 knowledgeable people taking 2 opposite sides on if a particular car (Pontiac RWD sedan & GTO) is being made.

2. A General Motors product Chairman confirming that a certain car (a GTO for 2008) is a "Go" (as well as mentioning a "Statesman" sedan), but says of Camaro: "There's no reason it wouldn't be approved" ..... at the same news conference! (worth noting that GTO and Statesman are Holden Australia cars)

3. "Zeta 2" (as it's coined around here) is 1 to 2 years behind the VE based Zeta. While Zeta turned out to be moderately expensive, Zeta 2 was designed to be low cost, high volume, and predominately Chevrolet's.



Now the "What If" questions:

1. What if you had a car that was created in a country (Australia) with exports to a particular country in mind (the United States), being made in a plant that has more capacity than it needs, at a time you are reducing the number of factories you have in the United States (you have only 1 in Australia), and you need a couple of high powered halo cars for a division (Pontiac)?

2. What if this chassis was too pricey to be sold as a $22K sedan (mid-level Chevy), but was just fine as a $32-35K one (Pontiac or Buick)?

3. If GM can turn Saab into a distributer of GM's global products, and turn Saturn into a US Opel distributor, wouldn't it seem logical that GM use 1 of it's US nameplates (or combined brand showroom like Pontiac-Buick) as a distributor of Holden sedans including a coupe?


Zeta based cars that were originally planned as exports to & production in the US, then were sidelined while GM restructured their entire RWD program, then approved in much smaller scope than originally planned.

No one has said we wouldn't get a version of the VE. Infact, it seems certain that we will. :)

thanks santa.:)

So Pontiac and Buick may use Holdens for a short time until Zeta is ready to go??

So Pontiac and Buick may use Holdens for a short time until Zeta is ready to go??

Or what if Pontiac (like Saturn) has a few US only models, but also becomes a permanent distributor of certain Holdens, including the next gen? :think:

That is way too much to consider all at once, and the logistics of such a product seem problematic.

I need a little while to figure out how I feel about all this.

Gui,

I thought you were leading-on to having Saab and Pontiac merged into a single brand that would be called Pontiac in the US and Saab everywhere else. If Pontiac's volume doesn't significantly improve in the next few years they could alway just rebrand Pontiac as Saab in the US.

This way GM can still get most of their "Made from Jet Air planes" marketing catch phrase ;)

http://img1.qq.com/auto/20060302/3297610.jpg

Would love it.

I'd wonder about the styling. Now we haven't seen the new VE without cammo yet, but I still worry. Holden's have had rather boring styling. It seems quite the opposite of Pontiacs of the last 20 years or so. They don't need a re-run of the current GTO. Great car without the styling to back it up.

I'd wonder about the styling. Now we haven't seen the new VE without cammo yet, but I still worry. Holden's have had rather boring styling. It seems quite the opposite of Pontiacs of the last 20 years or so. They don't need a re-run of the current GTO. Great car without the styling to back it up.

For a company (GM) that fails to produce anything remotely exciting this side of Corvette, I just can't understand how some people criticise Holden on the styling front. Granted the Commodore is last century's car but it's a hell of a lot more pleasing to the eye than the Impala etc... VE is only a few months away but GM will only be 2 years behind the ballgame by the time Zeta2 rolls out! :rolleyes:

I suppose it's possible, down the road, for Holden to export Commodores here as Pontiac G8's.

But there may be some issues to consider with that. Holden certainly wouldn't have the capacity to supply Pontiac with one for one replacements for the W-car Grand Prix. Also...as we saw with the GTO....transport and the strong AUS dollar, can make a car imported from Australia expensive to buy here.

We may want to look closer at what is happening with the future Holden-DAT plant in Korea.

Hmm... this morning I was scanning a number of GM-related web sites. Lots of discussions elsewhere (some involving folks from this site, posting on this thread) regarding Pontiac apparently having no confirmed future vehicle programs at this time (i.e. no confirmed GTO beside what Lutz has said, no Zeta, no official Epsilon2 G6, no Lambda, next-gen Theta probably a GMC), and I'm thinking it's time for a thread on Pontiac's ongoing viability (other than Solstice, everything recently has been a rebadge). Then I come across this thread...

The original plan to replace the GP/Bonneville was a rebadged Holden VE Commodore with Pontiac fascias. Per rlsedition, who was involved with this program until Zeta was killed and he took early retirement from GM, the car did clinic very well with U.S. consumers (but we know of Lutz's disdain for clinics):
http://ls1gto.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1338098&postcount=5

Could we see this plan resurrected? Doubtful that we'd see these built in Oz for reasons mentioned previously - not to mention the fact that Holden either has or is about to whack over 1000 workers - basically those they hired to start up a third shift for GTO production, but no longer need now that that segment of their export market is bye-bye. Also doubt that this could be a complete Grand Prix replacement, unless there is a complementary program for a revised, larger G6 (much like the rumors of a revised,larger Malibu taking up some of the market of the Impala when it goes RWD). Or maybe GM is thinking of not duplicating platforms between Buick and Pontiac, and that an EPII LaCrosse would take the G6's place? Very confusing...

Then there's the proposal to not build/stop build Utes in Oz and import pickups from NA or Thailand. The Ute has been a cultural icon in Australia (both Ford and Holden make 'em) - how well would they take to this model going away? Would they just drive sales to Ford the way that GMNA did when they discontinued the B-bodies in '96?

I, too, had lusted after other Holden models, and wondered if the Opel->Saturn relationship can be duplicated Holden->Pontiac. However, I think styling becomes a big issue - while Saturn had no real lasting public image/impression, Americans expect Pontiacs to be out-there (even though cladding was banned a few years ago - look at how the styling controversy took the wind out of the GTO's sales) and I don't know if Holden's styling would sell in N.A. with just another nose job. Most of Holden's lower-end vehicles are build in Korea now (technically, Holden bought Daewoo) - would they work as Pontiacs?

Does Pontiac have a future? It became obvious in early 2000 that Oldsmobile was going bye-bye, since there were no concept cars and no discussion of future production plans. I really am concerned that Pontiac (which, please correct me if I'm wrong, is still the #3 GM marque in sales, over 400k vehicles/yr.) does not have much of a future, unless we hear soon of confirmation of next-generation vehicles (not just rebadges like G5, Torrent, et. al.)... GTO is going, going, gone, Grand Prix will die after the 2008 model year, Torrent/G6/G5 should be around for another 2-3 years tops, Montana is gone, Vibe in its current model is dead after MY2007, Solstice ???

Does Pontiac have a future? It became obvious in early 2000 that Oldsmobile was going bye-bye, since there were no concept cars and no discussion of future production plans. I really am concerned that Pontiac (which, please correct me if I'm wrong, is still the #3 GM marque in sales, over 400k vehicles/yr.) does not have much of a future, unless we hear soon of confirmation of next-generation vehicles (not just rebadges like G5, Torrent, et. al.)... GTO is going, going, gone, Grand Prix will die after the 2008 model year, Torrent/G6/G5 should be around for another 2-3 years tops, Montana is gone, Vibe in its current model is dead after MY2007, Solstice ???

Some great observations. I do think Pontiac has a future. But it won't be based around Zeta though. For the near term, Pontiac's 'core' products will be Solstice and the various -and ever improving- versions of the G6. If a Kappa II, ( which would include more than 2 seat roadsters), line-up goes forward, I wouldn't expect that before '11 or '12.

The days where Pontiac was expected to get up to 3 Zetas are gone. Could things change down the line? It's possible. But right now, that's not the plan.

A $32K V8 SWB sedan for Pontiac badged as G8.
A $40K V8 LWB Statesman for Buick.

20k/yr a piece should make that quite profitable and provide a way that Holden doesn't have to axe any more jobs.

Grand Prix will continue on the streached Epsilon II. Remember the new Malibu will be close to Impala in size. The G6 will be on the shortened platform. G8 is more a Bonnevillesque car.

I suppose it's possible, down the road, for Holden to export Commodores here as Pontiac G8's.

But there may be some issues to consider with that. Holden certainly wouldn't have the capacity to supply Pontiac with one for one replacements for the W-car Grand Prix. Also...as we saw with the GTO....transport and the strong AUS dollar, can make a car imported from Australia expensive to buy here.

We may want to look closer at what is happening with the future Holden-DAT plant in Korea.

Grand Prix will continue on the streached Epsilon II.

Per insiders at this site, there is no confirmed Pontiac EPII:

http://www.cheersandgears.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=8365

I like the idea and have thought along these lines from time to time for the last few years. I'll be happiest if an El CaminoSS comes our way as well.

Per insiders at this site, there is no confirmed Pontiac EPII:

http://www.cheersandgears.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=8365

Well...sometimes the right hand does not know what the left hand is doing;)

FWD GP is a huge part of Pontiac and not going anywhere. There might be a breake betweem EPII and the end of W-Body in 06, but that that is it.

Few points brought up to hit on.

First, Grand Prix (as mentioned) isn't going anywhere. It's not going RWD (at least this round), and it's not going to change it's existing formula. Grand Prix is the one rock solid area of Pontiac, and along with the G6, it's going to become the core of Pontiac. I'd expect a restyled Grand Prix when it and Lacrosse moves production out of Oshawa #2.

Next, Holden has yet to run at the new capacity since GM expanded the plant. In fact, they are laying off people and eliminated the 3rd shift because they are running far below capacity...and thats with current GTO production. Add into the mix that it appears that the Crewman is likely to be replaced by our Colorado, and suddenly it seems that as much of 1/3 of the plant's 200,000 capacity is going to be empty....... and exactly why did GM invest in expanding that plant anyway? :think:

Finally, Pontiac isn't going to need a RWD car that sells 100,000+ per year. Pontiac Bonneville sold only 25,000 cars in 2004 and 65K in 2000 (considered to be a good year), but nearly half to rental agencies, meaning that Pontiac would need maybe about 25-35,000 sedans in addition to 15-20,000 GTOs. EASILY within Holden's current capacity.

Remember, we aren't talking so-called "volume" cars. We are talking about what has officially been termed by GM reps as "Aspirational" cars, or as BL calls "Halo" cars. Vehicles that set the tone for the rest of the brand, and serve as the top models for the showroom floor that rub off on the volume cars.


Being that Solstice is simply a traffic builder and brand showpiece like Corvette, Viper, and Ford's GT are, it seems pretty logical that in small modest numbers a Commodore SS sedan (complete with those Holden SSZ...er...Pontiac GP GXP fender heat extractors) as a Pontiac G8 performance sedan would make a great aspirational or halo car to associate with Grand Prixs and G6 sedans the same way GTOs will be in creating a link with G6 and G5 coupes in people's minds..... don't ya think? ;)

Just thinking beyond the box and more than 2 dimensions as I think the guys at GM might have done. :)

Few points brought up to hit on.

First, Grand Prix (as mentioned) isn't going anywhere. It's not going RWD (at least this round), and it's not going to change it's existing formula. Grand Prix is the one rock solid area of Pontiac, and along with the G6, it's going to become the core of Pontiac. I'd expect a restyled Grand Prix when it and Lacrosse moves production out of Oshawa #2.

Next, Holden has yet to run at the new capacity since GM expanded the plant. In fact, they are laying off people and eliminated the 3rd shift because they are running far below capacity...and thats with current GTO production. Add into the mix that it appears that the Crewman is likely to be replaced by our Colorado, and suddenly it seems that as much of 1/3 of the plant's 200,000 capacity is going to be empty....... and exactly why did GM invest in expanding that plant anyway? :think:

Finally, Pontiac isn't going to need a RWD car that sells 100,000+ per year. Pontiac Bonneville sold only 25,000 cars in 2004 and 65K in 2000 (considered to be a good year), but nearly half to rental agencies, meaning that Pontiac would need maybe about 25-35,000 sedans in addition to 15-20,000 GTOs. EASILY within Holden's current capacity.

Remember, we aren't talking so-called "volume" cars. We are talking about what has officially been termed by GM reps as "Aspirational" cars, or as BL calls "Halo" cars. Vehicles that set the tone for the rest of the brand, and serve as the top models for the showroom floor that rub off on the volume cars.


Being that Solstice is simply a traffic builder and brand showpiece like Corvette, Viper, and Ford's GT are, it seems pretty logical that in small modest numbers a Commodore SS sedan (complete with those Holden SSZ...er...Pontiac GP GXP fender heat extractors) as a Pontiac G8 performance sedan would make a great aspirational or halo car to associate with Grand Prixs and G6 sedans the same way GTOs will be in creating a link with G6 and G5 coupes in people's minds..... don't ya think? ;)

Just thinking beyond the box and more than 2 dimensions as I think the guys at GM might have done. :)

Why Pontiac anyway? If Holden's styling is not ostentatious enough for Pontiac why not role out Commodore and the like under Buick?

Why Pontiac anyway? If Holden's styling is not ostentatious enough for Pontiac why not role out Commodore and the like under Buick?

Well, Pontiac and Buick are now the same dealerships, so does it really matter?

It seems to me that GM is going to have to coordinate the two product lines, which means no duplicate cars. I think what guionM is saying about "aspirational" is simply a way to prevent Pontiac's larger cars from entirely disappearing.

Why Pontiac anyway? If Holden's styling is not ostentatious enough for Pontiac why not role out Commodore and the like under Buick?
Who is to say that both divisions won't get a VE? Or a VE for Pontiac and a WM for Buick.:cool:

Well...sometimes the right hand does not know what the left hand is doing;)

.

So which hand are you talking to? ;)

So which hand are you talking to? ;)

More importantly, what is that hand sharing;)

More importantly, what is that hand sharing;)

Do we really want to know what you guys are doing with your hands? ;) :p

Do we really want to know what you guys are doing with your hands? ;) :p
For some strange reason... I do. :eek:

GM had to get permission from the UAW to import up to 18000 GTO units per year. Would the UAW ok a larger number of vehicles coming from down under in the future or maybe there will be a clause in the next agreement with UAW (Sept. 07) saying GM can import what it wants from its Austrailian plant.

GM had to get permission from the UAW to import up to 18000 GTO units per year. Would the UAW ok a larger number of vehicles coming from down under in the future or maybe there will be a clause in the next agreement with UAW (Sept. 07) saying GM can import what it wants from its Austrailian plant.

The UAW is concerned about existing US made cars being made overseas, not new models. They'd be upset if the OK City Malibu production was moved to Australia or Korea (or even Mexico, or Canada).

Also, it's a MYTH that GM asked the UAW for any "permission" to import GTOs (anyone ask permission regarding the Korean made Aveo, Mexican made Fusions-Milans-Zephyrs or Rams, or other assorted vehicles imported from outside the UAW's domain including the Canadian made 4th gen F-body?). GM informed them as they would about every new car they intend to import, & the UAW voiced no objections as they hardly ever do with new models, but the idea that GM asked for permission was just internet rumor. :)


The GTO was limited to 18,000 ONLY because that was the maximum number Holden could gurantee that could be made in their Elizabeth City plant (their only body assembly plant) at the time the agreement was made..... and Holden had to be really creative to reach that number.



2 big changes in future imports to and from Australia:

First is that free trade agreement with Australia that eliminates that massive tax on imported trucks, basically freeing Utes to be sent here.... and also vehicles made here to be exported to Oz.

The second (and perhaps bigger issue) is that because Australia has run their economy so well while we've been piling on deficits like their's no tomorrow, the Australian dollar has gained strength over the past few years while our money has lost alot of value. That means the possibility of cheap, fast RWD cars from Oz in the future is no more possible than getting cheap fast RWD cars from Germany. A few years ago the exchange rate made a LS1 SS Commodore cheaper than an Impala LS, now it's on par with a well equipted GXP Grand Prix.

On the flip side (and bad for them IMO), it probally gives Colorado a bigger profit margin for US based GM than the Ute does. :(

The only problem I see with this scenerio is that the US dollar will likely continue to slide down compared to most foreign currencies in the near-term and therefore will make foreign made goods more expensive in the US.

The US dollar is currently at a year low compared to the Euro and Yen.

Unless you are making products in ultra cheap countries (like China, Korea and etc) where a declining dollar wouldn't cause a huge problem, but in a modern country like Australia a declining US dollar could destroy any benefits of an Australian built vehicle by 2007/08.

while we've been piling on deficits like their's no tomorrow

There is no doubt that (we) American's are spend-aholics and our government is no better since one party tax-and-spends and the other borrows-and-spends. One main reason why we have such a trade imbalance is that our products are too expensive on the global market place. If we continue to buy other countries cheap products but they can't afford to buy ours, then is will only contribute to our trade deficit. The only way to stop this economic bleeding is to get foreign countries to purchase our products. Since we can't always put a gun to these countries collective heads and force them to buy our stuff (by making them become a capitalist democracy) then we must allow the US dollar to deflate and this will make our products cheaper for them to buy while making their stuff more expensive here.

The main negative impact of a declining US dollar is that it would most likely cause inflation domestically and if the US dollar declines too much then OPEC and foreign countries like China, Korea, and etc might divest themselves out of the US dollar (and US bonds) and switch to the Euro or the Yen. The biggest negative on a global scale is that many economies around the world are 'export-only' economies and the US is their largest customer. So if these countries foreign products become too expensive here in the US because of a declining US dollar and therefore we stop buying as much of their products then those foreign economies will suffer greatly and they won't be able to buy anything from us and our trade deficit will continue to increase.