I'm just curious to hear the various opinions from this crowd concerning the first on-sale date for the Volt (feel free to use the model or calendar year), and how many yearly units it'll start at. If you're feeling particularly brave, feel free to predict a yearly ramp-up rate, the MSRP, and the claimed range.

The reason I ask is that I'm at an automotive battery conference this week, and there are some interesting numbers floating around from folks in the industry. No, I'm not going to hint at them until a few people step up with their best guesses

 

2012 at best, 2014 more realistically.

Maybe 5k a year.

My engineer uncle who was involved with the volt for a while would probably have a different opinion but I haven't talked to him in years.

 

All indications are that the project has fallen behind the target date. I can't see GM rushing the car into production to the point the technologies aren't thoroughly tested, leading to an embarrassing botched launch. They know how important the car will be to their reputation.

I'm going to say we'll see the first Volt in showrooms in late 2011.

Price? I'm guessing the MSRP will be high 30's-low 40's, with GM taking an initial loss. I'm guessing the first year build will be a few thousand models.

I do think they'll hit range targets of 40 miles on a charge.

How close am I?

 

Calender year 2010, maybe 20,000 units that years. 30-50K the next year. and maybe 75K a year after that. If I remember correctly GM said the goal was 100,000 a year.

I'm equally interested in what the Saturn Vue and Escape plug-ins can do and what years they will be out.

 

I don't know! I'm not hiding any secret knowledge of GM's exact plans; I've just heard some various opinions and facts over the past few days that could be spun into numerous stories, depending on your level of optimism or pessimism. I figured that we'd at least make things entertaining before getting too deep into the boring details

 

Spooky. I was thinking of posting a thread like this just this morning. I should be in the market for my first new car later this year and there's a good chance I'll be working a job with a much longer daily commute. I was interested in the Volt, but was wondering if the spiking gas prices was going to accelerate release before the year 2010 that everyone is throwing around.

30k'ish I could do...40 and above? Not so much.

 

I would assume late 2010 as stated by GM, with an initial production of 50k units in the first year.

The reason? I *know* that the new largest car manufacturer in the world isn't just worried--they're *terrified* of the Volt. For that reason, I suspect it is on-schedule as stated, meeting or exceeding goals as stated, and will be produced in significant volume.

 

I'm sure Toyota is scared of the Volt, but GM also wants to be sure that the product they put out there is worthy of the fear that Toyota feels. I'm thinking it'll be 2012. 2010 really isn't that far away where cars are concerned, and considering where the technology reportedly is, I think 2010 is too early.

 

I think November 2010 as the article about the testing of the mules says they are already achieving the initial product goals in test models. Bob Lutz even says he is confident in the date (the original launch date).

 

Here is a link to the thread a couple below this one with the article describing progress on the Volt.

https://www.camaroz28.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=605599

 

You're right: for normal vehicles. But not for one that has literally - an entire company riding on it. There are hundreds of engineers working specifically and only on the Volt, and Wagoner, and Lutz are both working on it. 2010 is my guess; and since that little article came out: I'm glad everything's going well.

 

Hey Eric is there any interest in selling batteries for homebuilt EV's that are better than the golf cart ones currently used?

I think early November 2010. I say units will be 10k in that first abv model year and 25K the next and so on. Price $25,999, fully equipped for $29,xxx

 

I'll wager it doesn't start under $29,999. And at that price, they'll probably make you lease the battery pack separately.

Could be $40k plus if the battery pack is included.

 

The reason for posting this question is that the president of the Advanced Automotive Batteries Conference laid out his forecast for lithium-ion battery sales projections. For 2012, there are projected to be 5,000 plug-in vehicles with a 10-mile EV-only range, and only 500 with a 40-mile EV-only range (presumably, the second category constitutes Volt sales). For 2015, there are projected to be volumes of 10,000 units/year with a 10-mile range, and still only 1,000 units/year with a 40-mile range.

GM spoke twice at the conference, and never laid out any concrete volumetric plans for the Volt, and stayed away from any discussion about commercial details. One of GM's engineers did state that 5 years of pack testing would be required before a pack calendar lifetime of 8-10 years could be verified; prior to this data being collected, the pack would need to be leased, or the price of a replacement pack would need to be priced into the vehicle.

Neither of GM's vendors is able at this time to put sufficient pack calendar life data on the table. LG Chem seemed to avoid the question altogether, while A123 was able to show life data for two calendar years.

Other battery performance data that was presented by LG Chem and A123 looks extremely promising, with the exception of serious temperature-related problems below 50F and above 120F (colder temps limit the power available from the pack, while higher temps dramatically accelerate the rate of pack degradation).

GM is also starting to look at second-generation PHEV pack technology (combining a high-energy lithium cell with a supercapacitor bank). This could be viewed as an admission that a pack of high-power cells may be too expensive and bulky for 40-mile EV range.

It appears that there are two different camps with regards to hybrid strategy. Toyota, Nissan, and the national labs (such as Argonne) seem to view "strong" (think Toyota Hybrid Synergy Drive or GM's Two Mode) as being the most cost-effective paths to lowering energy usage (these systems start making a huge amount of sense at roughly $6/gallon). For plug-in systems, this group believe that sizing the pack at the lower end of the average drive cycle (7-10 miles) provides the most value to the consumer, because then the most expensive part of the system (the pack) isn't oversized.

GM, Honda, and Mitsubishi seem to be taking the opposite approach, and are looking towards plug-ins (in GM's case) and EV vehicles (Honda, Mitsubishi) that have packed sized to the upper end of the average commute. This approach carries a heavy penalty in pack cost (the Volt's pack looks like it'll cost about $21,000 at currently-projected prices), but becomes more useful at double-digit fuel prices... or if liquid fuels start to dry up completely

At this point, the typical li-ion pack is a rather complex piece of engineering. I don't see anything in the aftermarket for quite a while (indeed, all the folks that claimed to have something on the way for the Prius seemed to have fallen short of their claims from two years ago).

Probably the best bet for the homebrew EV crowd will be to use the standardized form-factor packs that will appear in some commercial (medium- and heavy-truck) hybrids in the next few years. Presumably, those will provide the necessary mechanical, electrical, and thermal integration, and should be available in low-ish volumes.

 

If all that turns out to be true the next 7-10 years are going to be scary as we come down the back side of the global oil peak

What about the Escape plug-in hybrid and the Vue plug-in? How does this effect them?

The French air car doesn't like such a bad idea now. Compressed air might be a better "battery" than Lithium Ion.