...does that mean we could have some hope for an El Camino?

Since both the sedan and ute version would both be chevy's, it seems like it might actually make sense now.

 

Again, where is the extra volume going to come from?

The Ute is going to be extra low volume if it heads over there. The SWB Caprice would easily account for volumes needed by the US market. That leaves little room for WM (LWB) unless imported from China.

So where does that leave room for the VE ute?

 

Werm, I think you know there are exactly 2 people here that would morgage their 1st born to get a Holden Ute should it come here to the US... and I'm 1 of them.

I'm easily the most hopeful regarding that ride, even though I keep pretty realistic and practical regarding everything else I talk about here.

Because of this, you can probably take it to the bank when I say not likely, or at the most optimistic, not yet.

GM's most pressing issue is the G8-soon-to-be-a-Chevrolet sedan.

Here's the gist of it:

Pontiac got the G8 because the quanity it was expected to sell was something Holden could deal with. The reason why Chevrolet never got any Holden made vehicle (GTO or any VE car) was because Chevrolet sells in massive volume. Holden typically makes 120K or so Commodores annually. Maximum capacity isn't much more than 300K, and that's probably past redline (you wouldn't want to keep that pace or assembly quality starts suffering). In addition to that 120K Commodores, you also have Statesmans, Utes, and various exported vehicles under different names.

Now, say you decide to sell something under a Chevrolet banner in North America of all places. Question turns to "how do you keep production low enough that the factory runs well, but isn't swamped". You really don't want to hire alot more workers (if demand drops, you're stuck).

You sell to the police world, and you can wind up selling anywhere between 30,000 and 70,000 which is a very wide range. You can either stress out the plant and tap out Holden's entire extra VE production capability and then some, or you might be able to use an additional 20,000 civilian G8-like sports sedans to add to that 30K going to law enforcement to fill out that total 50K vehicle extra capacity.

Throw an El Camino into the mix, and even though it would cost absolutely nothing to create (G8-ST paid for it already) and would sell in small numbers (by US standards), it would still complicate things greatly. It was easy with Pontiac. Chevrolet is a whole new ballgame.

Once GM has a fix on how many VE Chevys it can actually sell, iroinically, if sales are low enough, we can likely get an El Camino to round out plant capacity.

On the surface bringing the Holden Ute makes complete sense, especially now.... but there's other things at play too.

My wild guess is that Fritz is isn't thrilled about the risk, Lutz is in attack mode, and he willing to risk the Chevy VE will become too successful by offering it both to LE and retail markets, and there's other people inside who are looking at a car that has pretty decent profit margins, defied the industry's plunging sales numbers. and are wondering why is it even being debated.

All this is... "Speculating"... of course.

 

I think a lot of Chevy dealers still have a bad taste in their mouth from the SSR...I wonder how that would factor into things? Dealers may not even want one.

 

At one point there was greater than a 12 month supply of G8s in inventory, and many are still out there, even with generous rebates. In the current auto market, GM probably isn't that worried about demand outstripping production capacity.

It seems to me there's a number of timing issues with the Chevy G8:
- Chevy's priority in 2010 is the Camaro
- They need to sell down the remaining G8 inventory
- Commodore refresh coming in 2012 (?). Better MPG and "not a rebadge"

If I were to speculate, the Police fleet program is just to bridge the gap with current VE production capacity, and the next Commodore (VF?) would be imported as a retail car.

 

This scenario seems reasonable. It may be best to wait until the Commodore gets its refresh so that the car isn't so glaringly a Chevy G8 - sucks to have to wait, but I personally, worst case scenario, wouldn't be in the market til around then anyway.

BTW, rumour has it that the G8 is pretty much sold out here in Canada so there is no G8 inventory to sell down. I think it was mentioned in another thread by a fellow Canadian. So as it turns out, the G8 has had but a one year window of availability here - talk about an abbreviated timeline.

 

If the Chevy version of the G8 would sell more than Australia could handle at their factory, what are the prospects for Oshawa producing them for North American consumption? Oshawa comes to mind because I'm wondering if the Camaro line is flexible enough to run that Zeta car also. If you have two lines there, they can flex production on the two lines between the Camaro, Chevy "G8" and Chevy "Ute" to meet demand.

 

I think what's been said about it is that the build process used to assemble the Commodore is vastly different than what is used here in North America and the fact that a whole new supplier base would need to be created in order for GM to build the cars here makes it an expensive proposition. Assemblies for the Camaro are shipped to Oshawa from Australia since the Camaro is a lower volume car, it's actually cheaper than sourcing the parts here.

The next version of the Commodore was to be standardized with the North American process - whether it's worth it for Holden to follow through on that remains to be seen since all Zeta cars that were to happen here, aren't going to.

 

I wonder if they could do say 5000 units of the El Camino, make it limited edition , number them and sell them all as fully loaded V8 trucks (cars ). Limited production, fixed number, high profit margin vehicles.

 

A car-based truck from the Holden Ute would probably be more practical than the SSR was.

 

There was never "more than a 1 year supply" of the Pontiac G8. That's an internet rumor, and the so-called huge supply issue is a partial truth cherrypicked in the same way some in the media compared the GTO's sales to the Mustang and took GTO's 3 year lifespan and proclaimed it a failure (convienently ignoring the fact that the GTO overall still outsold similarly priced WS6 Trans Ams, absolutely slayed the Mustang Cobra in sales... it's true competitor... and was planned to have only a 3 year run from the very begining).

So... about the G8's so called inventory....


The G8's inventory maxed out at just over 11,000 vehicles (late last year)

Last month (June), the G8 broke yet another sales record, selling 3,622 cars.

That comes to a 3 month (90 day) supply of G8s at most.

The average is 60 days.

The Pontiac G6 right now has a 544 day supply.

Pontiac Solstice has a 261 day supply.

There's a 163 day supply of Dodge Chargers.

Still 152 days supply of Chevrolet Cobalts.

Mustang? How about a 147 day supply (in all fairness, these are 2009 Mustangs, not 2010s).

LeftLaneNews and other organizations looked at what G8s sold at the start of the recession (13K or so), what was in stock, and proclaimed that G8s had a horrendous supply and was a failure. Funny thing is, that pretty much every month since the end of last year, G8s have increased it's sales.


As for Chevrolet's focus on the Camaro means it can't focus on anything else, I honestly don't know what you mean by this. What focus? What is Camaro doing that is adsorbing Chevrolet's (let alone GM's) entire attention?

Camaro is in showrooms. Chevrolet is bringing out a new Equinox. They just bought out the Traverse. The Cruize is about to start production. All of these models needed far more attention & resources than simply loading G8s with Middle East Lumina noses on to boats. Even without advertising, Chevrolet is likely to still sell 3K Commodores per month just to law enforcement alone.

Even Telsa can focus on more than 1 model at a time. You can bet the far that GM and the massive Chevrolet Motor Division can manage quite a bit more than only one new model or project at a time..... easily.

When the car comes over, it's not to bridge any gap. It's to make GM money while costing GM no additional money. It really doesn't matter if it's sold as a fleet vehicle to law enforcement or a retail vehicle to the public or a combination of both. The only restriction is to avoid taxing out the EC plant or bringing on an army of new workers (though retail will bring more money per vehicle).

Recent G8 sales numbers FWIW:
Jan: 1331
Feb: 2705
Mar: 2939 (777 last year...up 278%)
Apr: 2013 (2126 last year... down 5%)
May: 3081 (1831 last year...up 68%)
June: 3622 (1536 last year... up 136%)

The only other vehicle GM makes that isn't experiencing a double digit drop is the Buick Enclave (up 26%).

One other little G8 tidbit.

Out of 28 individual GM car lines, the G8 is currently GM's 7th best selling car.

In order:
Impala, Malibu, G6, Camaro, Cobalt, & the Vibe.... Everything other GM car, G8 is outselling.


http://www.examiner.com/x-1194-LA-Au...les-in-America
http://abcnews.go.com/m/screen?id=7901294&pid=4380645

 

If Pontiac is with "old GM" do they still get credit for these sales?

 

Only resistance I can see to police fleet sales would be the worry that it will be a short-lived model and spares/replacements will run out quicker than the potential buyers would be comfortable with. Probably not a big concern, but municipalities are traditionally conservative; I'm guessing it took considerable effort for Chrysler to overcome this stigma in selling to potential buyers the Charger for police fleet use.

 

I just don't know how you cannot call the GTO a sales failure for Pontiac. I mean, I'm glad we have them on the automotive landscape here and all, but the fact of the matter is that Pontiac only moved 2/3rds the volume projected, took 5 years to move 3 model years worth of cars and only after putting generous cash on the hood.

It's not just the media which considered it a sales failure, it was GM too.

 

Pontiac is with new GM.