Z28x

...and yet GM is still going to put out the 2010 Camaro that is probably a few hundred pounds heavier and has a larger more powerful 6.2L LS3 V8.

I'm sick of hearing the the doom and gloom about how 35mpg CAFE is going to end the Camaro and V8 cars in general so I decided to put together some numbers.

For starters, CAFE is currently at 27.5mpg. The current fleet of domestic cars averages 29.3 in 2004. So we have 12 years to get another 5.x MPG out of our domestic fleet. For those that think 5mpg in 12 years is too much too soon check out how we did from 1977-1987. We gained 10mpg and did that kill the muscle car?? NO... only a few years later we got Camaros and Corvettes with engines like the LT1 and LT5.

So now lets look at that 2002 Z28. The window sticker rated an automatic Camaro at 18/25 and an avg. MPG of 21. Missing CAFE was no big deal because it is a Corporate AVERAGE and GM only sold something like 25,000 Camaros with a V8 engine. Top dog LS1 Camaros only got about 75% of the CAFE 27.5. If we use the same ratios then a 2020 Camaro Z28 will need to get around 26mpg avg. That means something like 23/32mpg by 2020!!! This is why I'm not worried.


Also check out the #'s for import cars. They have actually gone down from an average of 32mpg in 1983 to 28mpg in 2004 and are now behind domestics Shame Shame.

My Red 93Z-28

Thank you.

Most people who doom and gloom about CAFE killing V8s forget that it is the average fuel economy for the company, not per model.

Silverado C-10

Between 77-87 OD became common. GM released the 700R4 around 82 or 83. What will the next "big" fuel saver be?

Z28x

6 & 8 speed autos
Direct injection
AFM
2 mode hybrid
Series hybrid
Modern Diesels (check out anyones European lineup)
and Z284ever's favorite, weight reduction!

DAyers

I think we are going to see many more small displacement turbocharged engines in the future. They get good fuel economy when driven normally and provide good power when you ask for it. I believe this is common in Europe, plus they like turbo-diesel engines over there. I am not sure is the U.S. will ever warm to diesel engines in large numbers.

GTOJack

EFI was introduced in the mid 80s by most of the auto industry to help fuel consumption. It also helped to add horsepower. Hopefully, mods will be available to undo whatever the auto industry has done to slow down and deball future high performance cars.

CLEAN

Yep Yep

94Camaro_Z_28

I think more gears, direct injection, DoD, etc. will be what gets us to 35mpg. I see the Volt as a great way for GM to get there, as well a Hybrids (even though they are just a patchwork solution)

GTOJack

The auto companies will want to make sure that most vehicles over the average are high profit vehicles, and right now, passenger cars dont fit in that category.

Aaron91RS

The economy sucks, inflation is getting worse, oil prices are getting higher, CAFE is implenting new MPG rules.
Of course I am talking about 1975

Anyone who was thinking 2007 is obviously off base.
I mean there's no way the exact same conditions we have this time around will end bad. I mean this time I am sure there will be a happy sunny ending.

So by your own admission we had to go through 15 years of ****ty cars and you say the muscle car didn't die?
WTF you think going for 15 years with eco-boxes isn't that long?
So let's say I was 16 in 1975. I had to wait till I was 38 until I was able to buy an 'average joe' sports car with 300HP.
So if it happens again in 2020 and I have to wait another 15 years I'll be 66.
Yeah I got all the time in the world...

The BEST case scenario is this has no effect on our sports cars. The worst case is it eliminates them. In NO case does it gain a sports car enthusiast a thing.
So from that point of view there is zero reason to support this cafe increase.

Bob Cosby

Concur 100%.

Dragoneye

Nice post, Z28x. Excellent job.
It just takes a aimed and pointed thread like this every once in a while to shoot the doom-and-gloom "rumors" right in the heart.

guionM

Thank you. I too get bored with all the doom-and-gloomers crying that the sky is falling with every single new regulation or fuel economy standard.

CAFE stands for Corperate AVERAGE Fuel Economy standards. People tend not to want to take time to think, and go for the simplistic answer that requires virturally no thought.

As you point cars under CAFE today average about 29 mpg. The standard has been frozen at 27.5 mpg since 1985.... that's 22 frigging years ago!!! The combined fuel economy of cars is already all but certain to go up due to rising fuel prices and the public already making fuel efficiency a major factor in new vehicle purchases.

I'm not sure what the point is or what you're getting at. If the only issue in anyone's life is getting a 300, 400, or 500 horsepower car, they might want to review life's priorities.

Muscle cars started dying right after the 1970 model year, when the insurence industry began the practice of adding astronomical "Surcharges" to cars with names associated with "Muscle Cars" as well as advertized horsepower. The public also walked away from performance cars for "Personal Luxury" cars like the Grand Prix and the Monte Carlo (again in the 1970-1972 timeframe).

Corperate Average Fuel Economy Standards were enacted in 1975. Well AFTER muscle cars died.

I wasn't 16 in 1975, but close enough to relate.

If you were 16 in 1975, then the Chevrolet Monza was quick for you, and you'd see cars like the Pontiac Trans Am and the L82 Corvette as the ultimate American performance cars. And you wouldn't be able to buy one because you'd still be in 10th or 11th grade.

10 years later, when you were 26, settled in your career, had some extra cash, and your insurence finally dropped down enough for you to buy a car with a little extra umph, there would be plenty of 5.0 Mustangs, Z28s, and even turbo Daytonas (if that's what you were in to) that matched the performance of most all muscle car era performance cars that actually were sold in any real numbers (even turbo Daytonas matched base Roadrunners from the musclecar era in acceleration).

At age 36, you probally would be married, have a kid or 2, and have 2 cars. Owning a car with the most horsepower on the planet probally wouldn't be your top priority. You'd probally be mature enough to want a car that does everything well, yet is practical enough to be useful and still be alot of fun.

Within another 10 years, the kids are likely to have gone through college and/or are out on their own. That money you had been spending to support them is now suddenly your own. You are probally secure in your career and probally are now able to buy that top powered car you always wanted.

It's no mistake that Mustang Cobras & GT500s, Camaro SS, Dodge Vipers, mid-90s era Impala SS, all Cadillac V-series cars, Corvettes (especially the Z06), Charger & 300 SRTs, as well as all other top performance cars are all bought off the showroom floor by those who are typically well over 40 years old. More people over 50 years old buy these cars than those under 32.



Sure, an "average joe" can walk into a showroom and buy a 300 horsepower car today. But what is the point you're trying to make?

1. At no time in automotive history could an average joe walk in to a showroom and buy a 300 net horsepower car until today. Today, you can walk into a Ford showroom & buy a 300 horse Mustang GT for lower than the average new car price. That was never in automotive history the case till now. Go back in history to the 60s to find a 340 horsepower car going for the price of the average car of the time, and you simply wouldn't find one. Yet, today is filled with 340 horse Hemi Chargers and 300s which in the 60s would have been as rare (and about as pricey) as the CTSv is today.

2. In the muscle car era, anything with 400 horsepower was simply astronomical and mind blowing. If you went over that, and you wandered into the relm of legends. To get that 400 plus horsepower in any car, you were going to first lay down some mega bucks to check that option box, and hope you were able to get one of those engines in your muscle car (those engines were made more for bragging rights in car mags and not to sell in large numbers to "Average Joes").

3. Cars today are actually FASTER than comparative cars of the muscle car era..... alot faster.


There is a ton of reasons to support the CAFE increase.

1. It will force weight reductions in cars, which has gone pretty high.

2. The reduction in weight will mean better handling

3. We've gotten to a point where more horsepower doesn't translate into more performance due to the extra weight needed to maintain durability margins.

4. Car makers have put disproportionate resources into large trucks and SUVs over the past 10 or so years, and CAFE forces them to ply more resources into cars and car based vehicles while increasing the efficiency of large trucks and SUVs.

5. There isn't the political will to do the thing that will actually affect fuel usage and influence car purchases (adjusting the gasoline tax that hasn't been touched in 15 years), so this is the only other option.


In 1975, Congress gave the auto industry just 9 years from enactment to DOUBLE the average fuel economy of it's cars based on sales over the 1974 models. This round, Congress has given the industry 13 years to boost fuel economy to 35 mpg from the current 29 mpg cars are currently selling and the 23 mpg light trucks are expected to achieve this year.

In 1975, CAFE standards were enacted about the same time dramatic changes in pollution standards that sapped alot of power (and fuel efficiency) from engines. This time around, these far more minimal standards come about without no changes in emissions standards that are going to tax engine efficiency. This round in CAFE also comes at a time where vehicles have far more horsepower than ever... and are heavier than ever. That's alot of room to play with before we see any real world drop in performance.

As for your statement that sport car enthusiasts don't gain a thing, I see nothing to support that.

1. Sports cars will inevitably get lighter.
2. Sports cars will inevitably get better fuel economy.
3. Sports cars will almost certainly handle better because of lighter weight.
4. Sports cars will be able to get at least the same performance with less horsepower as todays heavier mega-powered cars.

Z28x

Did you see my math? This time around we will have our cake and eat it too. Like guionM mentioned weight will be one of the first things to go. That means faster cars, better handling, and better fuel economy.

5 mpg is nothing. We already have large sedans and coupes in Europe putting down LS2 V8 levels of torque and getting high 30's for highway mileage. Tesla roadsters that are the size of a Solstice and as fast as a Ferrari running on 100% electric. And we still have 13 years to go before we need to get a CAFE avg. of 35MPG.

People also keep over looking the word AVERAGE. Every 50mpg Chevy Volt sold means you can sell one 20mpg Escalade or Three 30mpg Camaros and still meet that 35mpg average. The US domestic fleet average was 29mpg in 2004 when you could still get gas for $1.75. If we could find the 2007 numbers I'm sure that avg is in the 30-31mpg range thanks to the increase in hybrids and $3 gasoline. With all the hybrids, 6 speed autos, and direct injection engines coming out we realistically could be at that 35mpg average by 2012.

99SilverSS

While I'm glad that many here don't feel doom and gloom my concerns lie with the car companies and how they react to the 35mpg in 2020. We can all say it will be ok but unless GM for instance also thinks it will be ok we are at their mercey for what's produced. (aftermarket not withstanding)

Make no mistake the fuel economy CAFE standard is very powerful on the car makers, especially our domestic brands. Because this is an everage fuel economy the car makers will have to invest heavily on future tech on all vehicles but especially the cars because they offer the best way to raise the average over an SUV or truck. Cars have not been a hot selling segment for the domestic brands and they certainly don't turn the kind of profits the trucks get. So while we say it's ok we're CLOSE GM has to look at things differently as new tech must be developed and that cost will need to be spread out on lower profit margin vehicles. At the end of the day the car companies are in the business to make a profit. So for GM the thought of a new business model and much higher development costs means being close in CAFE isn't really that close.

If the Gov. is serious about CAFE and if this plan works by 2020 who is to say they won't raise the bar again by 2025 or 2030? Just something else that the car companies must think about.