Just some food for thought,,,

I work for a tier 1 auto supplier for Ford, GM, Mitsu, etc. The company is named Metaldyne, formally known as Simpson Industries, Masco Tech, and GMTI. These three companies combined Jan 2001 to form one large company. I happen to work for the company formaly known as Simpsons. I'm just a bottom feeder, an hourly production worker, or better known as a factory worker, but since I've been there, I've been amazed at how much information I learn before many other people do.
In spring of 99, we were given blue prints for the new Mustang knuckles. We have, I believe since lost that job to another company, but what I'm trying to get at is that this was 4 and 1/2 years before the new mustang was to be introduced. We are currently investing 30 million dollars in the new 6RXX 6 speed automatic for Ford, which is not scheduled to start production until late 2005 for us, as a 2007 model. We've already got machinces and done a PPAP for this. (Not exactly sure what PPAP stands for, but I do know we ran an order of approx. 1000 pieces to Fords prints, and shipped them out to Ford for tests and whatever else goes into development of new cars/trucks) We just started full production at the begining of the year on knuckles and hubs for the Excursion and Expedition, which was in development before I even started at the company, which was fall of 98.
So what does this have to do with anything you might ask? Will the way I see it is that before any of these vehicles were ready to go into production, there was quotes, blue prints, and pre-production runs done on the many different parts going on them years in advance. SO for there to be ANY possibility of a new F-body or similar RWD sports car to replace them, any time in say the next 4 to 5 years, then there should already be some sort of development and preproduction runs being done. I'm not saying there isn't already, (maybe under some weird part number, code or something which I seriously doubt), but if there isn't, then when the people deciding the F5's fate do decide to go ahead with a new Camaro or Firebird, we'll still be looking at around a 4 year wait. At the very least in my opinion.
Considering my opinion, and the little known facts I've come across working there, then if the F5 is given a go in say, 2004, then you'll be looking at around 2008 or later before any car will be rolled off an assembly line. This is again, my opinion on the subject, and unless they can come up with an 18 month miracle, like the first Viper (You can correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe thats how long it took to go from concept to production) then it will be a LONG wait before we see F-bodies in show rooms.
I'm sure this will make you all feel better about waiting around for GM to make up their minds on what they want to do. Especially with the upcoming Mustang, Charger, Supra, Nissan 350Z(is that correct?) and Skyline, among many others that can now be classified as sports cars coming into production and being brought to US soil. If all these other companies had these cars in development for 4 or more years, then why wasn't GM in the loop doing the same for a redesign. Now we'll be brought back,(if brought back at all) into a market of established, refined cars that may honestly make the F5 look like crap, for the simple fact that all the competition will have had ample time to work out whatever bugs they may have. Plus the ongoing battle they will have already established among themselves, along with consumer/brand loyalties that will be established, making the sales for F5's even harder to gain. Personally the more I think about it the sadder I get, but once again this is just my opinion, and like I said, I'm just a bottom feeding factory worker.
Andrew

We already know that the contract to produce Camaros at the previous plant goes to 05. IMO the car will be brought back in later 06, but thats me. That is alot of time to do planning and testing. And IMO also, there is probably more going on with a 5th Gen than we know of, if not, they have the time to do whatever is needed to get a great car out and do what a Camaro does, beat its competitors. http://web.camaross.com/bb/smile.gif http://web.camaross.com/bb/wink.gif

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Camaro/Chevrolet crazy F-Body lunatic. http://web.camaross.com/bb/smile.gif

[This message has been edited by IZ28 (edited September 04, 2002).]

The best information doesn't come from the head of the company or a company executive or manager. It comes from people actually doing the work, or the one's "in the trenches". I'd say that's where I get 80% of my entirely new information.

No one (redplanet level people & above, or the media groups ) is going to reveal something they don't want you to know. Many times THEY are the ones who are clamping down on the information.

Yet, via vendors, contractors, the people remodeling factories, making the tooling, transporting or testing some aspect or another of a new model, etc.. have vastly more information than even some of those same executives.

That's how I found out about Holden comming to the US & that there was going to be a more powerful Impala next year.

A couple of the unanimous OPINIONS I recieved regarding Camaro by 2008 came from the trenches.

Couple of thoughts -

-Ford has pushed back the new mustang several times (originally was to be a 2003 model) so that may affect your estimate of 'lead time'

-The fact that no one has come forward and said that for sure a 5th gen camaro is in development means that there isn't. There are too many people involved - including the "factory workers" for us not to know that SOMETHING is going on.

PS: PPAP stands for production part approval process.

Some additional thoughts.

I saw a show on the Science Channel (I believe) last night and they were allowed in the top secret GM design studios where the new models are developed.

They focused on the Chevy SSR development (which is now no big secret, hence the program) and appearantly GM is so advanced in using computers to design the next generation cars, that they were able to go from an inital sketch to a scale model based on a buildable design to show GM brass in just 8 weeks.

The show claimed that GM is much more advanced than the other manufacturers (Ford, ChryslerDaimler, etc.) in using computers to design new products, so then what's to say that they can't crank out a production F5 within a couple years?

It's not like they aren't already working on next gen drivetrains for the Corvette, so basically they could in theory design a car around the drivetrains they already have planned in development.

I could go for a retro-styled 5th gen Camaro with a Corvette drivetrain couldn't you? (Of course knowing GM it'd probably be detuned for the F-bodies.)

PPAP stands for Pre Production Approval Process. In the auto ind. it is usually 5yrs.

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">
PPAP stands for Pre Production Approval Process. In the auto ind. it is usually 5yrs.</font>

I do it every few months! $#&@ design engineers. Can never make up their minds. http://web.camaross.com/bb/smile.gif

More additional thoughts:

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">
The show claimed that GM is much more advanced than the other manufacturers (Ford, ChryslerDaimler, etc.) in using computers to design new products, so then what's to say that they can't crank out a production F5 within a couple years? </font>

Look how long it's taking them on the very same SSR!

You guys make some good points, and like I said, being from the "trenches" I have absolutely no idea what really goes on with development, and such. All I can go by is what I've seen from what I personally have been involved with, and thus drew up my conclusions and what I thought would be a likely outlook on things to come. I agree, that actual development time of 8 weeks for the SSR is probably possible and happens all the time. But like WERM said, look how long its still taken to get the SSR out into production. You have to have a considerable amount of time allowed for build up of parts to be able to begin production. We had for our Excursion/Expedition knuckle line, a build up of two months worth of parts before Ford took the first shipment, which was a large one, and ended up sucking up our whole supply in a matter of a week or so. Then a month later we recieve a call from ford that the parts are rusty and they want us to fix the problem. This is a long drawn out story, but the fact is that by the time we had finally taken care of the rust issues, which was determined to be their own fault, they had us on a next day needed schedule, and all of the sudden we were the ones that were behind. And that was with us being ahead of schedule just a month or so prior. Auto manufactures may wish to go into production in just a few months after the final go ahead, but you cannot get all the auto suppliers in the industry to get machines in, programs set up, tooling setup, and actual production ran, and by ran I mean to full production for an 8 hour shift, in just a few months. At least not in the factory I work in. You have way to many issues to deal with, and if we happen to be able to get it together flawlessly, there would be some other supplier having the same issues that we have had. Or the big kick is the customers themselves being absolute *****s about stuff, ESPECIALLY when it has to do with a new product. They will pick out the smallest little detail, just to make the supplier look bad. I can think of one instance with NVG that dealt with them having a fit about the color of the cast surface of the parts we were shipping them, while another supplier was constantly shuting them down for missed shipments. Here we were getting calls about "ugly" parts and they were down anyway because of someone else. They can be extremely picky, thats why so much time has to be allowed before actual production can begin. Again this is my opinion and I'm going by what I've seen, heard and personally have to deal with. It won't be a couple of years for a new F5 to go into production. The Viper doing it in 18 months is simply amazing, at least to automotive standards. But many forget is that actual production numbers ran for a whole year is I'm guessing a tenth of what the f-bodies ran this year. Quite a big difference when you consider you have to build ten times as many cars.
Andrew

Just a little side note I'd like to add, which many of you may have a cow about when you start thinking about it.
I am currently working on the Mitsubishi front knuckle line in our factory. We have had considerable down time because of machine problems that are too numerous to resolve. It is written in our contract that if we were to happen to shut Mitsu down for ANY reason, that we will be charged $20,000 a MINUTE for down time caused by us. I am not joking here, and if you were to figure that if our machines went down for an 8 hour shift, and we had absolutely nothing to ship, which is just about the case right now with us, that we would be charged 60min X 20000 X 8hours worth of time down. Do the math and you'll see a lot of money wasted. We'll more than likely be working every weekend from now until after the first of the year, just to get caught up to be ahead of our customers orders. Thats IF we can keep our P.O.S machines running for a full 8 hours at a time.
Andrew


[This message has been edited by APS95Z28 (edited September 05, 2002).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by jg95z28:
Some additional thoughts.

I saw a show on the Science Channel (I believe) last night and they were allowed in the top secret GM design studios where the new models are developed.

They focused on the Chevy SSR development (which is now no big secret, hence the program) and appearantly GM is so advanced in using computers to design the next generation cars, that they were able to go from an inital sketch to a scale model based on a buildable design to show GM brass in just 8 weeks.

The show claimed that GM is much more advanced than the other manufacturers (Ford, ChryslerDaimler, etc.) in using computers to design new products, so then what's to say that they can't crank out a production F5 within a couple years?

It's not like they aren't already working on next gen drivetrains for the Corvette, so basically they could in theory design a car around the drivetrains they already have planned in development.

I could go for a retro-styled 5th gen Camaro with a Corvette drivetrain couldn't you? (Of course knowing GM it'd probably be detuned for the F-bodies.)</font>

That SSR 8 week time span is only the design phase. Last year both the BelAir and Solstice went through the same phase in much less time. Design isn't the issue in bringing out Camaro. The issue is it's chassis & parts.

Unless GM's going to throw a new skin on an existing car, Camaro will have an entirely new inner structure, regardless as to existing powertrain or suspension component design. Then all those have to be tested & eveluated (items that work on a CTS or STS won't automatically work on a much lighter Camaro). Then once specifications are set, then it's given to contractors who also have to be evaluated & tested. The dashboards form the now extinct f-body were made by an independant company, which had to do it's own development work under GM's standards.

In short, typically anything comming down the road within 2 years between vendors, contractors, factory plans, etc.. will be known about by quite a few people.

Just as an example, Ford's Flat Rock Michigan plant is going through a remodeling to make the 2004 1/2 or 2005 Mustang and some vendors are working on various parts for it as we speak. The dates have already been set to close down the plant for remodeling & the equptment has already been ordered for the upcomming RWD LX Chryslers, not to mention that tests on vendor produced items are wrapping up.