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Think the new CAFE standards are the end of the world? Read this.

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Old Jan 3, 2008 | 11:10 AM
  #1  
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Think the new CAFE standards are the end of the world? Read this.

When reading this, keep in mind that automakers have another 13 years to reach 35 mpg fleetwide.

Thursday, January 3, 2008
Automakers set record for mileage
Daimler hit with $30M fine for not meeting fuel goal.
David Shepardson / Detroit News Washington Bureau


WASHINGTON -- Amid record high oil prices and concerns about climate change, cars and light trucks sold in the United States hit a new mileage record for the 2007 model year, with average fuel economy improving almost 1 mile per gallon.

According to a report by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released late last month, fleet-wide fuel economy in the United States averaged 26.6 mpg, up 3.5 percent from the 25.7 mpg averaged in the 2006 model year. Passenger cars averaged a new high of 31.2 mpg, while light trucks averaged a separate record of 23.1 mpg.

Both figures handily beat the government's 2007 mileage mandates of 27.5 mpg for passenger cars and 22.2 mpg for light trucks.


But not all automakers hit the targets. DaimlerChrysler -- which ceased to exist in August -- faces a hefty fine for the 2007 model year, on top of a record fine for the 2006 model year.

NHTSA hit six manufacturers with fines totaling more than $40 million for missing 2006 mileage standards, including a record $30.3 million fine for Daimler AG's imported fleet handed down in October.

The standards are part of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy program, or CAFE standards. NHTSA based the most recent figures on a review of estimated 2007 sales.

On Dec. 19, President Bush signed into law a 40 percent hike in CAFE standards.

"We've seen a huge reduction in sales of big sport utility vehicles," said Aaron Bragman, automotive research analyst at Global Insight. He added that the popularity of more fuel-efficient crossovers was a big factor.

Estimated 2007 model year results are:

• General Motors Corp.: 29.9 mpg for domestic cars, 31.9 mpg for imported vehicles and 22.6 mpg for light trucks.

• Ford Motor Co.: 29 mpg for domestically produced cars, 29.9 mpg for imported cars and 22.2 mpg for light trucks.

• DaimlerChrysler: 28.6 mpg for domestic vehicles, 24.7 mpg for imported vehicles and 22.6 mpg for light trucks.

• Toyota Motor Corp.: 31.6 mpg for domestically produced cars, 38.5 mpg for imported cars -- largely based on Prius hybrids -- and 23.9 mpg for light trucks.

• Honda Motor Co.: 33.5 mpg for domestically produced cars, 39.6 mpg for imports, and 25 mpg for light trucks.

• Nissan Motor Co.: 25.6 for imported cars, 34 mpg for domestically produced cars and 22.9 mpg for light trucks.

The fine to Daimler for 2006 was largely due to imports of its Mercedes line and topped the $28 million paid by BMW in 2002. It was levied to the former DaimlerChrysler AG, the company's name before it shed the now standalone Chrysler LLC.

Donna Boland of Mercedes-Benz USA, said the fine "would accrue to a very large extent to Daimler on the basis of Mercedes" but did not know how much of the fine was covered by the German firm.

Eric Morath and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
Old Jan 3, 2008 | 11:39 AM
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Yea, I read that this morning at breakfast. It shows the imports are much closer than the US car companies to obtaining the new CAFE requirements.
Old Jan 3, 2008 | 11:42 AM
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I also assume that with fuel prices on the rise the ratio of trucks to cars will drop back down to something like 35/65 from its current 50/50.

At that ratio all an automaker has to do is get their truck average up to 25mpg and their car average up to 40mpg to meet 2020 CAFE. With cars like the Volt and plugin Vue coming out this should not be a problem. I wouldn't be surprised if most automakers meet the new CAFE by 2013.
Old Jan 3, 2008 | 02:02 PM
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I have no doubt automakers will be able to make the new CAFE standards, but at what cost. Profits will suffer greatly if trucks/SUVs sales come down that much.
Old Jan 3, 2008 | 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by GTOJack
I have no doubt automakers will be able to make the new CAFE standards, but at what cost. Profits will suffer greatly if trucks/SUVs sales come down that much.
According to what guionM posted Honda isn't too far away from meeting that goal now. I imagine once there diesels come out in 2010 they will have already met the 2020 CAFE regulations.
Old Jan 3, 2008 | 02:31 PM
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Carmakers may have 13 years to hit the CAFE goal of 35mpg, but the phasing in starts in 2011. Guess what model vehicles are being worked on today? Expect to see more RWD platforms dropped and more V8s scrapped in the near future.
Old Jan 3, 2008 | 03:03 PM
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CAFE has nothing on us (California) if CARB has its say...

http://www.mercurynews.com/localnews...es/ci_7869696?
Old Jan 3, 2008 | 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by GTOJack
Profits will suffer greatly if trucks/SUVs sales come down that much.
If oil prices keep on the current path, manufacturers will have to adjust to a different product mix anyways.

I have to say that I'm shocked - in a good way! - that the fleet average actually increased last year (and by no small amount). I think that this would tend to support the idea that the free market is working, since the fleet is exceeding the CAFE requirements by a much greater margin than in previous years.
Old Jan 4, 2008 | 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Z28x
I also assume that with fuel prices on the rise the ratio of trucks to cars will drop back down to something like 35/65 from its current 50/50.

At that ratio all an automaker has to do is get their truck average up to 25mpg and their car average up to 40mpg to meet 2020 CAFE. With cars like the Volt and plugin Vue coming out this should not be a problem. I wouldn't be surprised if most automakers meet the new CAFE by 2013.
Ah but don't foregt, at least according to the self-proclaimed fountain of knowledge of all things automotive; the truck market isn’t and won’t suffer/decline at all for the foreseeable future as noted here (and subsequent posts in the that thread in which he defended his position with his usual courtesy and persuasive arguments):
Originally Posted by PacerX
The rumors of the imminent demise of the truck market are greatly exaggerated….Both IRN and JD Powers have GM selling better than 1,200,000 trucks for the foreseeable future.
If his position is correct then Detroit can’t get its corporate average up by a shift in the ratio of car to truck sales and instead, is going to have to find a way to get light truck and truck-based SUV’s a lot better average MPGs than they do currently.

I do believe it can be done; the question is how and at what cost and will people be willing to buy them?

Last edited by Robert_Nashville; Jan 4, 2008 at 06:48 PM.
Old Jan 4, 2008 | 05:04 PM
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Do the new CAFE standards go off the old EPA estimates or the new ones?
Old Jan 4, 2008 | 05:13 PM
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Originally Posted by mdenz3
Do the new CAFE standards go off the old EPA estimates or the new ones?
Neither. CAFE is its own #
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