Join me on a trip to the FUTURE!

EDIT: The Dateline video in the E85 thread is required viewing before jumping in here :)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12676374/


The year is 2025, the United States has weened itself completely from foreign oil. The domestic capacity that still operates provides raw material for the petrochemical industries and as a source of fuel for the older cars and jets that still burn "regular" gas. The never ending secular civil wars in the middle east barely register as news anymore, most children can't find Saudi, Iraq, or Iran on a map. The US has long since withdrawn it's assets from the region once it became energy independant, and now all of the wars, the politics, and the high regular gas prices are but a distant memory.

"Big Oil" is a shadow of its former self, a giant struggling to hang on to past glory and profits. American farms are the envy of the world, humming along w/ output so outpacing demand that the US is considered a major world energy EXPORTER, and reaps the profits from nations only too eager to buy up the raw materials for the fuel of the 21st century.

China, having benefited from it's under the table deal w/ Iran in the early part of the century (in which it provided political interference for Iran in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian oil) is starting to feel the pain, as Irans oil fields have run dry, and is desparate for a new source of fuel, as they are unable to grow the crops necessary to provide the basis for ethanol.


Now then, given the above fantasy scenario, what do you guys think of the following questions...
1. If the US goes all in w/ Ethanol, as Brazil has done, what happens to BIG OIL? Does it fight an unwinnable fight? Does it diversify and get in the corn business? Does it just shrink and only the strongest survive, like the computer companies have done?

2. Does the US really become a world leader in energy EXPORTS? The middle east of the 21st century? And if so, what does it do w/ the untold riches that pour into the country?

3. Do we run the risk of a BIG CORN conglomerate that can manipulate prices and stick it to consumers just as BIG OIL does today?

4. As the oil fields run dry, what of the nations that were previously oil rich, but now find themselves oil poor? Also, what of the nations which are unable to grow the kinds of crops necessary for ethanol production? Do they just import ethanol like they used to import oil/gasoline?


Anyone w/ other questions feel free to ask. After watching the Dateline piece, I just came up w/ a best case scenario, and it's interesting to think about what a change it would be if it came to pass.

Well, it seems that ethanol can be produced from many sources, and outside of the middle east, pretty much everyone can process it. The middle east will still be the main focus for fuel.

What about GM's involvment in the growing Chinese market? A hault there could mean a hault on sales for the GM cars. Do the GM cars there run on an imported ethanol fuel? Could China also supply its own Ethanol fuel to power its own cars, only further supporting a Communist Nation as a stand alone power?
This would be a GREAT plot for a James Bond movie.

The Oil companies certainly are a wild card.. I think they will fight it as long as they can. However, sooner or later we will reach a critical point when prices become a real burden and the government will stop dragging its feet.

So at that point, the Oil companies can continue to fight a loosing battle, which some might think they would as its a club of good old boys with very old money. Might be beneath them to get in bed with a bunch of dusty farmers.

Or they can find a place in the new market. I think thats likely, they know how to build refineries, they know how to transport fuel etc. I think the government would probably hand over a pretty big piece of the pie to them just so they could get it working.

I still don't think they would have the kind of control they do now though. If nothing else states would have a greater say in fuel production so that would put a pretty big damper on it. Also with the overhead of producing fuel it would be feasible to have a lot more companies supplying the country, which would also lower prices.

1. If the US goes all in w/ Ethanol, as Brazil has done, what happens to BIG OIL? Does it fight an unwinnable fight? Does it diversify and get in the corn business? Does it just shrink and only the strongest survive, like the computer companies have done?
As the owners of the distribution infrastructure, they will still be the ones we buy our fuel from. They will indeed diversify into ethanol

3. Do we run the risk of a BIG CORN conglomerate that can manipulate prices and stick it to consumers just as BIG OIL does today?
Ahem ... Archer Daniels Midland :o

4. As the oil fields run dry, what of the nations that were previously oil rich, but now find themselves oil poor?
Let's hope they don't have nuclear weapons when they start fighting over the remaining scraps of oil.

Oil companies are really Energy companies, and I wouldn't be surprised if the winds of change would cause them to buy up ethanol production or become competitors in the same business.

Let's hope they don't have nuclear weapons when they start fighting over the remaining scraps of oil.

Most of those places over there are hell holes, and what little comfort they have is provided soley by oil. If the dictators lost thier limitless cash flow I really think the countries would collapse on themselves.

I mean its one thing to convince people, "America is the cause of all your problems even though they are half way around the world, can't spell your name and are providing us with the money we do have by buying our oil."

But its a whole nother thing to convince them, "America is the cause of all your increasingly desperate problems because they stopped buying our oil even though they are half way around the world, and can't spell your name."

:p

Oil companies are really Energy companies, and I wouldn't be surprised if the winds of change would cause them to buy up ethanol production or become competitors in the same business.

Something I forgot to add. I have read that a lot of the farmers in the midwest who own the huge tracts of land are in a lot of debt. The government gave them low interest loans to increase domestic production... Then the lands value dropped. Thier are probably several states Exxon could buy without going to the bank. Then they might be back in a position to ram us.

Unfortunately, in the next few months, gas prices will drop by about 75 cents per gallon, and everyone will forget about ethanol, energy independence and everything else.

The key to real action is sustained (ie., longer than afew months) high gasoline prices. Without that, the rest is all hyperbole.

Unfortunately, in the next few months, gas prices will drop by about 75 cents per gallon, and everyone will forget about ethanol, energy independence and everything else.

The key to real action is sustained (ie., longer than afew months) high gasoline prices. Without that, the rest is all hyperbole.

Just as the oil Co's did a few years ago.....but it's a different world and I think more peole are realizing that we need to move away from ME oil....

A little more war will take care of that:(

Nothing wrong with war, its the natural mechanism by which human beings subconciously control population growth or how else would you explain the frequency of war?

how else would you explain the frequency of war?

I always liked the definition of war as the pursuit of politics by other means :D

A trip into the future... all the way to the year 2000!

IN THE YEAR 2000...

1. If the US goes all in w/ Ethanol, as Brazil has done, what happens to BIG OIL? Does it fight an unwinnable fight? Does it diversify and get in the corn business? Does it just shrink and only the strongest survive, like the computer companies have done?


58% of US oil is imported, so only 58% of the US needs to go Ethanol to be 100% independent

Big Oil will diversify


2. Does the US really become a world leader in energy EXPORTS? The middle east of the 21st century? And if so, what does it do w/ the untold riches that pour into the country?


I doubt it, the USA will suck down every gallon of Ethanol it can make. Plus we have already hit or are close to our peak oil production, so as oil production goes down and oil population goes up we will be looking for more and more energy.



3. Do we run the risk of a BIG CORN conglomerate that can manipulate prices and stick it to consumers just as BIG OIL does today?


No because to make Ethanol you don't need billions of dollars worth ore refineries to get the economies of scale right. You technically can make Ethanol at home.


4. As the oil fields run dry, what of the nations that were previously oil rich, but now find themselves oil poor? Also, what of the nations which are unable to grow the kinds of crops necessary for ethanol production? Do they just import ethanol like they used to import oil/gasoline?


War. They will blame the west for not helping them. The middle east will/does deal with there riches the same way M.C. Hammer did.

We can never totally wein ourselves of oil as it's used in too many other items besides fuel... Can you say Plastics???

What I see the US doing is Yes looking at Ethanol for fuel but looking at our own reserves to balance out the equation. I think if I remember right we have something like 2 trillion barrels worth of oil someplace in Colorado in the form of Oil Shale. I think we also have in the hundreds of billions of barrels of oil up in Anwar. If we wanted to isolate ourselves and become the energy producers instead of the consumers I think we could do it and I don't think oil companies would have to die either, rather they would just regroup and go a different direction...

We can never totally wein ourselves of oil as it's used in too many other items besides fuel... Can you say Plastics???


The domestic capacity that still operates provides raw material for the petrochemical industries

My dad is a retired chemical engineer. I know ALLLLLLLL about plastic, more than I want to know in fact :D

1. If the US goes all in w/ Ethanol, as Brazil has done, what happens to BIG OIL? Does it fight an unwinnable fight? Does it diversify and get in the corn business? Does it just shrink and only the strongest survive, like the computer companies have done?
"big oil" will do what most successful american companies have done over the years, they will expand or die. simple. natural gas, fuel cells if they ever are developed, large batteries, possibly electrical plants. the energy field is HUGE and there is plenty to expand into. the strongest will survive, as is the nature of a capitalist society.


2. Does the US really become a world leader in energy EXPORTS? The middle east of the 21st century? And if so, what does it do w/ the untold riches that pour into the country?
highly doubtful, but yet no one knows for sure how we could ramp up corn, switchgrass, etc etc production our capability to refine it. don't forget there are many many countries around the world that can produce large amounts of corn and similar grown products if they invested a little into their growing areas (water delivery, etc).

also keep in mind that a lot of the technology is being developed and by defintion will be tested by the US by implementation, so it will be MUCH easier for other countries such as india or china to take our tried and true methods of energy production and implement them much cheaper than we ever could because they didn't have to go through the R&D costs nor the growing pains, rather they just get the finished product.


3. Do we run the risk of a BIG CORN conglomerate that can manipulate prices and stick it to consumers just as BIG OIL does today?
unlikely. almost anyone can farm corn, and its not nearly as expensive to make an ethanol refinery in comparison to an oil refinery and IIRC a lot of the pollution concerns with an oil facility don't apply with an ethanol facility.


4. As the oil fields run dry, what of the nations that were previously oil rich, but now find themselves oil poor? Also, what of the nations which are unable to grow the kinds of crops necessary for ethanol production? Do they just import ethanol like they used to import oil/gasoline?

some of these oil rich nations have seen their future, such as some of the more progressive arab nations (UAE, dubai, kuwait in some respects, etc etc). the rest will continue to have poor populations while the leadership dissolves by various coups. the kingdom of saud has let its general population continue to slip into poverty while the ruling family got richer and richer over the last 50 years. it is a scary prospect but i do believe more lawless nations will pop up, taking the place of the newly bankrupted "kingdoms," and radical islam will expand greatly now that the little restraint these ruling parties had on it is gone.

as far as the countries that cannot produce their own ethanol, such as most of europe or japan, they will continue to import their energy requirements, but i also expect the expansion of electrically powered items and the expansion of the nuclear infrastructure to provide for those items.

I dont like the Anwar thing....not at all. Alaska is beautiful, lets not turn it into this...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/BigAlZ/stupidass.jpg

Incredibly, just a small portion of US oil needs is supplied from the middle east. There was a good article in Popular Mechanics, and US buys just 6% from Saudi Arabia. Another 6% from nigeria. Then 10% from Canada. And some more from Venezuela.

Like someone said already, about 55% of oil is imported.

Still, for cars that switch to E85, they get significantly lower MPG than running on regular fuel. Yes, it's higher octane, but if you take into account lower mpg, it actually becomes more expensive to run E85 (again, the break-down was provided by Popular Mechanics). I'll dig it up once I get home.

Still, for cars that switch to E85, they get significantly lower MPG than running on regular fuel. Yes, it's higher octane, but if you take into account lower mpg, it actually becomes more expensive to run E85 (again, the break-down was provided by Popular Mechanics). I'll dig it up once I get home.

Not if the price of E85 is 70% that of gasoline. Even if E85 cost the same, it will be cheaper for our nation in the long run, there are a lot of side effects to us using gasoline that cost a lot of money.

i thought i had seen somewhere that flex fuel vehicles could adjust the timing for E85 to take advantage of the higher octane and get better fuel economy...

I would really like to see a study of GDI engines, high compression motor and E85 ability? Could the benift of very high compression that is allowed with E85 and Direct Injection, actualy increase gas milage? How about with the help of a turbocharger, as in this case, to increase effiency?

My '03 Suburban gets about 25% less gas milage on the E85 than it does on traditional gasoline. You pay about 25% less for it: so it becomes a push when you look at it from the direct-consumer-cost perspective. The trucks drives & feels the same. Buring ethynol releases the carbons that corn requires during it's growth, so the net-effect (environment-wise) is near-neutral. Ethynol production is currently limited. As production and refining ramp up, it will be more readily available - and be cheaper than it is now (some estimate it could get as low as $0.70-$1.00/gallon). My only complaint is that you really hafta look to find the gas stations that offer it. Personally, I'd like to see GM become the first automaker to offer a full-line of flex-fuel vehicles: make every GM vehicle a flex-fuel vehicle and MARKET the heck out of it.

Check out:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12676374/

I like what he said aboutthe oil exec.
" be careful...we can drop the price of oil"

My '03 Suburban gets about 25% less gas milage on the E85 than it does on traditional gasoline. You pay about 25% less for it: so it becomes a push when you look at it from the direct-consumer-cost perspective. The trucks drives & feels the same. Buring ethynol releases the carbons that corn requires during it's growth, so the net-effect (environment-wise) is near-neutral. Ethynol production is currently limited. As production and refining ramp up, it will be more readily available - and be cheaper than it is now (some estimate it could get as low as $0.70-$1.00/gallon). My only complaint is that you really hafta look to find the gas stations that offer it. Personally, I'd like to see GM become the first automaker to offer a full-line of flex-fuel vehicles: make every GM vehicle a flex-fuel vehicle and MARKET the heck out of it.

Check out:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12676374/


Thats what I was thinking. Once E85 production ramps up big time, prices should drop significantly. I also would love to see GM market the hell out of their Ethynol vehicles. I was pretty happy to see the E85 Avalanche display at the auto show I went to this year, hopefully they stay into it and really push for it.